I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mpls] 15/9/2019 19:12

The last drill was not a 90% COS drill. The 90% COS is a myth, this has already been established. The erroneous COS that is paraded around for the LP2 pilot well is of little use because as Oil Man Jim has already pointed out the pilot well "was a stratigraphic test well, drilled solely to gain structural information"

Full test results yet to be published.

Management need to be clear and the next statement. Last time they worked throughout Monday night/Tuesday morning on the partial data on the well and then rushed out an RNS at 10am. This time they need to take their time and the complete results and fully inform the market in a more communicative manner, facts but without wiggle room for doubt in what they are saying.

[flawlesskicks] 15/9/2019 18:50

toon... share price will have some sort of vested interest in a lower share price. Either a short or they are buying at the lows. I wouldn't trust a word they say tbh.If there is an rns, they won't know what is in it as it will only be released tomorrow morning.The main drills are yet tome come and we could get second spud this week.I think the market has got this one very wrong as they got our other share wrong until May when it suddenly jumped 200%

[jungmana] 15/9/2019 18:49

This 90% cos is a myth . Some bb ramper asign it to the pilot well when it was 84% for the earlier planned production well L2.Change in plans earlier in the year led us to the current mess.

[haideralifool] 15/9/2019 18:26

tournesol are you referring to this video:


I must say I don't share some of your views on it.

[divmad] 15/9/2019 18:17

Indeed, mpls. Well spotted.

What's that saying about a good business can't be messed up by poor management?

[mpls] 15/9/2019 18:10

tournesol, seems you have done more research than you let on:


tournesol - 23 Aug 2019 - 17:19:50 - 10964 of 11976 I 3 Energy - I3E
Discovery of the Liberator field

"The proven and probable reserves of the Liberator field’s first phase of development are 10.7 million barrels of oil and six billion cubic feet of gas."

Liberator was discovered in 2013 by Dana Petroleum with the drilling of the 13/23d-8 exploration well.

The well encountered a 24ft-thick hydrocarbon column on top of a 316ft-thick high-quality lower Cretaceous Captain Sands reservoir, which included 20ft of oil below a 4ft gas column.

The reservoir had properties similar to the adjacent Blake Field and the oil had an API of 30.3°.

Geology and reserves of Liberator field

The Liberator field reservoir is a four-way dip closure that was formed by the compaction of the Captain sandstones located on the western side of the Blake channel of the Blake Field.

The flow barrier of the reservoir comprises Albian shale of the Rodby Formation.

Its reservoir comprises Aptian sediments of Lower Cretaceous age, which are made up of thick sandstone units characterised by high porosity and permeability.

The proven and probable reserves of the Liberator field’s first phase of development are 10.7 million barrels of oil and six billion cubic feet of gas.

source:-

All of which means that the 4 critical risk factors mentioned in a previous post have already been checked off.

1) The presence of mature source rock
2) Effective hydrocarbon migration and charge
3) The presence of an effective reservoir
4) A hydrocarbon trapping mechanism

Each of the above has already been verified. The appraisal well is simply double checking the sub-surface conditions in the extended bit of the field. Even if that proves disappointing it will not mean that the region around the original discovery well is unproductive.
tournesol - 23 Aug 2019 - 13:25:47 - 10944 of 11976 I 3 Energy - I3E
Hi Buffy

...Worth remembering that the COS or POS is the composite of several factors that need to be present.

1) The presence of mature source rock
2) Effective hydrocarbon migration and charge
3) The presence of an effective reservoir
4) A hydrocarbon trapping mechanism

The chances of each of those four conditions being satisfied vary, but as an example, if each of those was assessed as being at 97% then the COS for the drill, or indeed the POS, would be 88.5%. A COS of 90% is therefore not too shabby…

Worth remembering too, that there has already been a successful exploration well on Liberator, and it ticked all four of your boxes. The 2 imminent Liberator wells are an appraisal well and a production well. Appraisal wells are basically done on the "measure twice, cut once" principle. So the COS is really the probability that the first explo well was a good one - ie not some kind of fluke.

IMHO the risks around the appraisal well are asymetric. There is a v small chance of failure, but if it did go wrong it would murder the share price. By contrast, in a logical universe, success should not massively boost the SP, because it is already expected.

That said, the market cap is plainly too low for a co looking to start production in the next year or so. The market is not always efficient.

[escapetohome] 15/9/2019 18:05

I was not particularly impressed with the duo, one was watching the other and it thought it looked like he was checking what he was saying.

However, I don’t think they were surprised by the outcome, that’s always a risk in this business. In fact I was pleased they explained that the well was not just about finding oil, indeed no, the well was about investigation and gaining information to refine their model. I was pleased they explained that. All is not lost.

[tsmith2] 15/9/2019 18:00

i think you should watch less films and get out a little bit more

[mpls] 15/9/2019 17:21

Licence to produce oil for the benefit of shareholders.

[fardels bear] 15/9/2019 17:19

Ah. So they did it to make sure they held onto their licence. Above all the gravy train must come first.

[mpls] 15/9/2019 17:16

You may have seen this on the other board:

BigBiteNow from LSE:

At times like this it is important for investors to ensure the fully understand the facts as they stand.

The COS that is paraded around for the LP2 pilot well is of little use because as Oil Man Jim has already pointed out the pilot well "was a stratigraphic test well, drilled solely to gain structural information"

The 84% being quoted here from the WH Ireland broker note from January is of no use whatsoever. It was produced when the 3 well programme involved an actual production well LP2. The closure of the Junior Debt Facilty brought about a change to that plan and the introduction of the pilot well.

RNS 16th Jan 2019 Announcement of New Corporate Presentation

Slide 6 clearly shows the programme and states "Liberator L2 Production well"

Slide 8 goes on to say "Borgland Dolphin semi-sub for first development well (L2) and appraisal well (A3) drilled in summer 2019"

Followed by ;

"Second development well and pipeline installation to be completed early 2020 with first oil expected summer 2020"

So the plan at that point was for LP2 to be drilled as a horizontal production well but to be brought on stream in 2020 with the 2nd production well and pipeline.

But by the time we get to the RNS 9th April 2019, the plans has changed ;

"i3 plans to drill the A3 appraisal well first, thereby fulfilling its licence obligation in Block 13/23c ("Liberator West"), followed by drilling the Liberator Phase I L2 pilot well and finally the S1 appraisal well into the Serenity prospect."

"This drilling campaign is intended to:" (amongst other things)

"determine the placement of the second Phase I production well (either L4 or L1) planned to be concurrently brought on stream with the L2 production well in 2020 at potential combined rates of approximately 20,000 barrels of oil per day"

The order of play changed again later with the pilot well coming first but the key message here is the change from LP2 production well to pilot well.

Therefore the note from WH Ireland talking about 84% COS was actually referring to the full horizontal production well, which whilst drilling through the pilot well zone, also picked up known oil accumulations in other areas of Liberator Phase 1. So to simply say that LP2 has failed is incorrect. To be a successful drill it has to produce commercial levels of oil. It would have done that even if the the pilot zone failed as it has done thus far (surveys and data still to be announced).

So the COS is irrelevant because investors are attempting to compare a vertical drill with a horizontal drill that picks up far more zones. Hence why I3E now say LP2 should still be available to them be it not in the same place.

LP1 is very much alive , LP4 requires the A3 drill but is accepted through the CPR as being reserves if a development plan is in place, which it is. LP2 will add reserves but its position must be reviewed.

So the scheme is alive be it it requires a solid review.



To be absolutely clear.

The WH Ireland note is based solely on the scheme as it was known in January 2019.

That scheme involved the drilling of a horizontal production well through the LP2 zone identified on slide 5 of the January presentation.

It had a very solid chance of hitting commercial oil because it would run into oil zones already confirmed through the original oil discovery.

Losing the zone around the pilot drill means that the LP2 production well will lose an amount of its reserves but not all of it because of its length and where it runs through.

Until we know where the edge of the channel truly is we simply do not know how much oil is attributable to LP2 and therefore its chances of being picked as one of the first 2 production wells or the third that is planned to come on line in 2021.

LP4 may just usurp it anyway because a successful A3 would confirm the reserves set aside for LP4 but could actually increase this further. A3 could also de-risk the zone immediately West from the drill centre, which could lead to a further re-think on the Phase 1 development. Until A3 is drilled we don't know what options I3E but the message is that the options are there even if the noise wants to concentrate on potential failure to achieve the Senior Debt Facility or A3 carrying greater risk.

What that does is completely ignore the fact that oil is there in Phase 1 and the story is now about what options I3E can implement to extract it. To simply take the Senior Debt Facility as it stands and say it is all or nothing is frankly just silly.

To even attempt to dismantle the company before we have even seen the L2 results in full and heard the company's thoughts on the revised reserves is simply wrong. I will guarantee that the more informed contributors here that are casting doubt over the whole business, really truly understand that there is still a solid business case here and are simply wishing to have a piece of it as cheaply as possible.

We are talking the captains sands, a prolific world class sands that is highly porous and that is not only clearly shown as existing under the larger body of Liberator but is far thicker than on Blake. A miss on a very narrow section of the field does not take that away. It questions the model and it certainly causes doubt but the main Liberator area is substantial and the COS is strong for a very good reason.

[muddyfox0151] 15/9/2019 17:06

Lol just licking wounds . Ha , I3e held me back , cash flow , to risk .

[divmad] 15/9/2019 17:02

Ha ha, Muddyfox. You sound and act just like my alter ego. How weird is that?

[fardels bear] 15/9/2019 16:50

We always did. But they have always only made the situation worse every time they say anything. Because it never happens.

[flawlesskicks] 15/9/2019 16:18

Divmad... Supposedly, there is an rns coming on Monday morning. Should be a good read as they now know shareholders concerns and will be able to clear up lots of misunderstandings.I really think there are a lot of manipulative people on all sides who are straying very far from the true situation here.We really do need the management to clear things up officially and let us know that we are now full steam ahead with everything to play for.

[flawlesskicks] 15/9/2019 13:37

Costax - Best thing to do. All these arguments between the bulls, bears and traders count for nothing! The only thing that will count is drilling the hole and getting the results.

[costax1654x] 15/9/2019 13:03

Let the Drill bit to decide!

[flawlesskicks] 15/9/2019 12:32

Costax... I think 15p/£1. That's the risk/reward on this. Very interesting few weeks ahead.I hope we can get clear info from the company early this week on what they have learned and on next spud.Let's move forward and look forward to the next two drills... Both of which are potential company makers!

[costax1654x] 15/9/2019 12:13

And hopefully...finance will go ahead!

[costax1654x] 15/9/2019 12:09

After the I3e hit,Hopefully to rebalance with some Rre gains!Haven't sold any I3e!But If A3 hits oil,120 p,is not....5p!Hopefully 70% CoS

[mpls] 15/9/2019 11:09

The email share price refers to has been around for a couple of days. It's quite easy to take the statememts out of context and misrepresent the facts.



E.g see Abbot post