I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rosedale1] 08/4/2018 13:47

What bit off news do you think is due first.
Thanks for your knowledge

[showme01] 08/4/2018 12:56

Any time. Could be tomorrow, this week next week. Soon and Neill Carson in the recent Vox markets podcast said 'shortly' on funding

[rosedale1] 08/4/2018 12:11

Do we expect news this week.

[corgies2] 08/4/2018 10:02

Mind boggling numbers indeed .there is one factor which makes those numbers more attractive , more realistic......TIME FRAME . Starting 'from scratch ' would almost certainly involve a wait of years . i3 have stated that they want to get on with it so our 'wait' can be measured in months not years . OF course much can change in months not least the price of oil. Here we have bears worried about a trade war while bulls point to Bolton's hawkish position on Iran ...balance is not the first word to apply to the Trump administration but in this case perhaps bulls and bears do indeed balance risk. But what of the extension to Liberator ? Is it possible that UKGOV would not grant the extension which could help fill a few holes in the Treasury's pockets....well yes fingers and toes crossed

[showme01] 08/4/2018 07:31

I have just put together a few figures and made a few assumptions with what we already know. The figures are mind blowing considering the market cap of i3e at £25m

What we know:- Reference is to the corporate presentation

* Liberator has 2P reserves of approx 11.7m barrels of brent quality oil based on a conservative recovery rate of 28% (page 6)
* Break even extraction using 1 drill is under $25 per barrel of oil (page 7)
* Each drill costs approx $30m but a multi well programme will reduce the individual cost ( lets assume to $25m which I think is conservative ) Both Graham ( when speaking to me)and Neill in the recent VOX market podcast have said they would rather a multi well campaign in Liberator and each well would deliver 10,000 bopd.

Assumptions:-

* Funding in the RNS 31st Jan happens and they get 33% of the asset.
* There will also be an interest element repaid from revenue.
* Brent is $70
* Multi drill campaign consists of 3 drills.

Figures:-

*3 drills at 10,000 bopd = 30,000 bopd
*This is 900,000 per month and 10.8m per year ( this would be Liberator pretty much done in one year with all reserves recovered ).
* Income would be $45 per barrel gross and $30 net as the JV partner gets a third.
10.8m recovered in 1 year at $30 per barrel net to i3e is
$324m income less interest and offshore oil UK corporation tax of 19%

There won't be 19% on all of the $324m as overhead costs and interest can be offset.
Lets assume $30m is paid in interest which is far higher then I expect, i3e from Liberator alone will still have a pre tax income of $296m in its first year of producing. Post tax it will be at least $240m.

$240m is approx £170m. That's £170m sat in the bank less company overhead costs which will be a few million at best. This is £4.63 earnings per share with the current shares in issue.

Now we have the 30th round bid which will triple the reserves from 11.7m to 33.7m

Liberator is 2P. The 30th round bid is 2C with a 63% chance of commercial success ( page 10)

So with the cost of 1 drill, there is a 63% chance of success of another 22m 2P reserves.

Assuming the same drill costs and extraction costs and the same JV with 3 drills, that is another £170m per year for 2 years.

With these 2 projects alone, i3 energy could have banked £500m after JV costs and corporation tax within 3 years.

Please feel free to comment on these figures. Reasonable assumptions have been made imo but in Liberator, we have £170m in net revenue post tax nailed on and assuming we get the 30th round bid block, there is a 63% chance of success in cashing in another £340m for the outlay of an exploration drill (£20m ?).

Market cap of £25m. Once the funding is announced, major re rate imo.

[someuwin] 06/4/2018 13:06

Bought a few more today. News getting closer.

[showme01] 06/4/2018 07:44

Fill em up!

[jungmana] 05/4/2018 18:11

New isa allowance tomorrow :-)

[showme01] 05/4/2018 17:50

Can't be far off now Brooko. It's why the price never held yesterday, I guess this was a large sell order worked throughout the day.

[brooko19] 05/4/2018 17:24

Anothe 175k sell reported late gotta be close to JCAM clearing...

[begorrah88] 05/4/2018 14:12

Presumably some sells to show up later?

[cashandcard] 05/4/2018 11:26

In relation to the question of whether 100m would be reasonable upon funding and possible 30th round awards, I posted the following on lse:

--------------------------------------------------------------->>

It will be in excess of that imo.

For those who doubt that; please look at reserves, production, debt and market valuations of the following North Sea oil co's:

-FPM
-IGAS
-PMG

Whilst not exactly 'like for like', it does give you an idea of the ballpark valuation is likely to be. Include SQZ in that list simply because of location assets and production (albeit mostly gas).

Cash

[begorrah88] 04/4/2018 12:13

While I do think it will be a temporary thing and we should rise on news, it does look as though this has been run up, with the help of the podcast and the recent RNS saying all is still on course, to assist JCM in offloading their stock.

Maybe we have to wait for news until they have shifted the remaining $1.5m so we might get further 'loan note conversion' RNS before the funding one.

Might be a requirement of the funding that JCM are clear before any announcement.

Frustrating but hopefully only temporary

[brooko19] 04/4/2018 11:52

I’ve got a feeling we could see news next week on funding... I don’t think it will be this week as I don’t think they would of done podcast they would of just waited a few days but next week could be very exciting! Not worried about CLNs they’ll clear within first 5 mins of positive news..

[coscos] 04/4/2018 11:05

One piece of positive news will clear the decks. Think it's only a matter of days now.

[showme01] 04/4/2018 11:02

It will be James Caird Asset Management offloading their converted loan notes. The quicker they are gone the better but with only $1.5m outstanding in loan notes, they will be welcome liquidity when news lands and demand goes up dramatically.

[2prsimo] 04/4/2018 11:00

Still a seller offloading in 5k parcels

[2prsimo] 04/4/2018 09:43

There you go - about time - 75p paid

[mr. t] 04/4/2018 09:31

I liked the interview a lot, and have bought more in my sipp.In the words of Tom Petty - now and again, I get the feeling, if I don't win, I'm going to break even.Let's hope so, anyway....

[5chipper] 04/4/2018 09:20

Starting to see the demand come through.

April could be a mega-month for I3E :)

[2prsimo] 04/4/2018 09:06

mm's trying it on - doing a spot of fishing - they haven't got any shares again - paying 72p.

[cashandcard] 04/4/2018 08:58

Really upbeat interview. Catalysts; (1) possible 30th Round awards tripling reserves, certainly to be awarded in Q2, perhaps imminently (2) JV deal/s with industry players for upto $200mln to finance Liberator area development (3) once they receive final approvals, quick road to FOIL, with phase 1 targeting 10,000boepd+ late 2018.

I cannot see any significant holdups to the plan once financing is sorted, OGA want this to happen and so do a whole bunch of industry participants.


Cash

[brooko19] 03/4/2018 15:35

15 mins in states extremely advanced JV talks....16 mins in states a single well is 10k BOPD and they are looking to get as many of THOSE (mutiple wells so 10k bopd x2 or x3 ie 20k or 30k BOPD) as soon as possible....

[showme01] 03/4/2018 14:48

Duckdown, I think it will be transformational!

[5chipper] 03/4/2018 14:43

Nice start to the post-Easter trading season.

Let's hope there are a lot of investors waiting to load I3E in to their isas after Thursday