I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[d1nga] 10/1/2019 12:11

thats as maybe FB

BUT they are more than likely stranded assets with no local infrastructure or end of filed life assets

and that is the crux of this investment

eta a bit slow with the post see above points raised too

[broadbean78] 10/1/2019 12:10

FB your proverbial queue doesn't really exist as things simply aren't that black & white. You need to focus more on type & size of asset etc. Major's are trying to sell large ageing fields decommissioning/tax offset etc. We're not even that size or class. Different horses different courses.

We already have several companies conducting DD for just a slice of our pie with more scheduled to enter the process in Jan (I'd imagine they'll be the larger of the competing bidders too).

[cashandcard] 10/1/2019 12:09

fb,


Majors are trying to get out of end of life assets which have decom costs coming up.


Cash

[fardels bear] 10/1/2019 12:03

You'd need to form a queue behind a lot of majors who are trying to flog North Sea assets though.

[broadbean78] 10/1/2019 12:01

My thoughts too Caters. Looks significant. Therefore accelerated. Package it all up and flog it ASAP. Ideal.

[caters] 10/1/2019 11:58

The S1 well brought forward to 2019 points towards a complete sale of i3 sometime in 2020, imho.

[caters] 10/1/2019 11:53

Well, yes and no.

If Liberator and Serenity are just western extensions of fields to the east, then there really could be a lot of easily-lifted, nice API oil here.

Clearly, i3 have to get the funding and it looks like they're getting close whilst maintaining 'optionality'.

Once funding is in place, there's execution risk, but this is a well-known basin and drilling risks are comparatively low.

The key question is whether the sub-surface work is accurate and the analogues nearby remove a lot of risk there too.

It really doesn't get a lot better than this for AIM O&G.

[fardels bear] 10/1/2019 11:51

Bit pie in the sky though, all this talk, don't you think?

[broadbean78] 10/1/2019 11:40

You could forget all of that and simply go with the 11 MMbbls 2P reserves for now.

Cash generation is $275m/£216m. Current MCAP is $32m/£25m

[caters] 10/1/2019 11:34

I3's value will be based more on value of the oil in the ground once reserves are proved up and production is imminent.

~$12 to $15 a barrel in the ground? 200mm bbls less some for JV/dilution, say 25%, and $/£ of 0.8333...

200,000,000 * $12 * 0.75 * 0.8333 = £1.5bn

then halve that 'cos that's unlikely to happen and you have to leave some for the next guy and pay off some debt ...

£750m / 75m shares (fully diluted and after a fund raise)

£10 a share :-)

edit: even half of that will be a superb result.

[fardels bear] 10/1/2019 11:25

Most oilers don't seem to achieve a P/E of 8 though, do they? Serica is stuck at P/E of 2 at the moment.

So, if I3E sticks at 2 that equates to £2.25.

[roundup] 10/1/2019 11:17

My last purchase was @ 40p. The present share price means nothing because it's the long term potential I'm looking at. This is only the start of the good news and I think we will have multiples of the present price if we have patience. Short time profit is always good, but only pittance in comparison to long term yields. All IMO.

[fardels bear] 10/1/2019 11:10

True, cash...

[cashandcard] 10/1/2019 10:59

fb,


You cannot compare a heavy oiler which needed to build its infrastructure and develop an expensive field with this. In terms of money/funding, I think it will get tied up soon.

The new boss has hedged his bets and has ensured there are options on the table. Therefore, unlike in the days of NC, there is no make or break reliance on others.


Cash

[king suarez] 10/1/2019 10:58

WJ/FB - thanks for the suggestions.

BON - looks v cheap on (current) fundamentals, but need to see the repeated profit warnings make it an unknown going forward.

UPGS - looks like a solid company

EVR - appears to be paying out massive dividends(!).

[d1nga] 10/1/2019 10:53

The asset will be produced its an easy quick development , all sides involved in negotiations just playing hard ball imo.

[5chipper] 10/1/2019 10:51

If I came across i3e for the first time today and considering-

- the numbers cash has just mentioned above
- how close they are to securing jv
- low cost production
- m cap of £25m

I think I would definitely buy for the next few years

[fardels bear] 10/1/2019 10:50

ISTR that XEL had STOIIP of just shy a billion barrels... The number that is most important in this game is cash in the bank to get the stuff out.

[cashandcard] 10/1/2019 10:45

"i3's advancement of its integrated subsurface analysis now maps STOIIPs of 314 MMbbls in the Liberator field and 197 MMbbls in Serenity (using conservative assumptions on oil column thickness).

Upon the successful appraisal and development of Liberator and Serenity, i3 could potentially produce more than 200 MMbbls from its current licences"


Pretty huge numbers in a success case. I would stick to I3E and forget about all this other stuff folk are mentioning this morning.


Cash

[che7win] 10/1/2019 10:35

I am in UPGS, it does not have the potential that i3e has.

[fardels bear] 10/1/2019 10:27

Suarez - EVR would seem to fit his description, Russian steel, FTSE100, Motley Fool seem to like it. I'll pass as I know nothing about steel..

[uk2day] 10/1/2019 10:19

Ducati, he’s Probably trying to ramp bonmarche to recover his losses! Lol

[d1nga] 10/1/2019 10:16

Jak time will tell
Hows the short going now?