I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[roundup] 04/10/2018 09:05

I wonder what the share price will be at by then.

[a2584728] 04/10/2018 08:58

This deal will be sewn up by mid November latest imho

[caters] 03/10/2018 21:15

As each day passes, the shorters will become more nervous as a deal could land at any time - either the one that had exclusivity or another where the farminee can move quite quickly.

It's just a case of holding on. They tried it on today and we had a strong reversal. They'll try again but their window of opportunity is closing.

[kingivor] 03/10/2018 21:00

14,000 bopd over 2 wells (discount west lib completely)
drains 5.1 m barrels each year of production
4.5 years = 22.99m total production 2p + 2c
Total sales revenue at $86 brent = $1.97b
Borrowing £50m capex 100% debt should be a breeze ffs
what's there to think about? and some pretend to be short

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/10/2018 20:59

In UK money, oil heading for £2/bbl..... not been there very often

[tsmith2] 03/10/2018 20:57

Where do our assets sit relative to Hurricane's geographically

[kingivor] 03/10/2018 20:37

A brent price stable range $80-$90 for the next few years would be perfect for North Sea oil and gas investment.
A sustained $100+ oil price may well a trigger a world wide economic crash.

Liberator economics are simply compelling and you would like to think Neil and Graham will be looking for an improved deal from the one the existing partner can't sign off on. May be a blessing in disguise. The banks in the UK will be falling over themselves to offer facilities.

[che7win] 03/10/2018 20:20

I can see Brent hitting $100 over the next few months, only can help interest here and negotiations on funding.

[fardels bear] 03/10/2018 16:34

Interesting to know what you'd do about it.Suggest you don't wind him up..

[ziblot] 03/10/2018 15:23

We need news, simple as that; otherwise mm's will just play with the share price

[mr. t] 03/10/2018 15:08

JakNife, there is no such thing as the contingent reserves you refer to - at least if you stick by the standard SPE terminology. I assume you meant contingent resources.

The latest AGR Tracs Phase 1 CPR gives 2P 10.7 mmbbl & 6 bcf gas (11.7mboe total) with a $200m post tax NPV10. The capex required to deliver this is approx $100m, with an IRR of 160% and a 1 year payback. These are good economics.



Note the oil price assumed by AGR Tracs in the first three years of production is $57, $67, and $72. If you assume $77 in those three years (more realistic given where Brent is now) then I calculate you can add circa ~$40m to the post tax NPV.

Here is the Phase 2 (or Liberator West) CPR that adds 22m barrels 2C resources (unrisked, with a 70% CoS) and 47m barrels mid case prospective resources (unrisked, with a 56% CoS)



Gaffney, Cline & Associates had a CPR from p.67 of i3E's admission document:



Back then Liberator was 9.0 mmbbl 2C resources within i3e's 13/23d block, and 6.4mmbl outside their block. Gaffney, Cline & Associates estimated a 2C NPV10 of $190m for all hydrocarbons, and $152m for those in i3e's block.

I understand the reason why i3e changed competent person was that Gaffney, Cline & Associates became conflicted as they were advising one of i3e's funders (I believe the debt provider, but am not sure).

In summary:

1) Two different independent auditors have evaluated Liberator Phase 1 and given it a positive NPV, with attractive economics. The latest AGR Tracs CPR has Liberator Phase 1 at $200m NPV, several times the current share price.

2) In the last year and a half, i3e has developed the Liberator field from 9.0mmbl oil + 2.3 bcf gas 2C in block to 11.7mboe 2P + 22mboe 2C + 47mboe mid case prospective resources. This is value creation by the company.

3) The recent increase in oil price will have increased the value of Liberator Phase 1 since the last CPR, maybe by circa $40m.

4) There is an appraisal well planned for mid next year (I'm aware i3e's time scales are "fluid") that, if successful, would allow the 2C resources to be upgraded to 2P reserves, and would derisk the prospective resources.

[mingbat] 03/10/2018 14:46

Jaknife,

Convenient how you somehow ignore readily available and published information.

Liberator east has had a test well.

Just in case you need some information using your exact words:

hxxps://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/liberator-oil-gas-field-north-sea/


"The proven and probable reserves of the Liberator field’s first phase of development are 10.7 million barrels of oil and six billion cubic feet of gas."

Yet, according to you - there are no proven and probable reserves at all...

[ducati2345] 03/10/2018 14:42

Jack your so wrong contingent reserves are pretty much proven but not commercially viable. Hencethey weren't viable at 40 dollars a barrel but are viable at let's say 60 dollars or more.

[fardels bear] 03/10/2018 14:35

Desperation sets in. They really want your shares... Seen all this on GKP threads but they haven't sent the complete nut jobs to attack this board yet.

[buffythebuffoon] 03/10/2018 14:28

JakNife,

You said that companies should sell assets when they haven’t got, and can’t get, funding.

In their desperation they offloaded quickly. If there were no other buyers who could move quickly.....

I don’t recall you mentioning all this a few months back. Did you?

Buffy

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/10/2018 14:24

JakNife
3 Oct '18 - 13:46 - 4346 of 4348
0 0 1
ducati2345,

. The CPR that I read referenced contingent reserves not proven or probable and not even potential.

....If you understood the terms you're bandying about, you'd realise that the above sentence is gibberish.

[buffythebuffoon] 03/10/2018 14:23

Ziblot,

You are making some idiotic statements.

I’m sure you aren’t working.....

Thanks for the ‘son’by the way. I’m in my sixties, so if you are old enough to call me son, at least I can put your comments down to senility rather than you being an idiot.

Do ask any sensible questions. Only too happy to answer them.

Buffy

[kingivor] 03/10/2018 14:18

Jak, imo you represent broker trying to find loose stock for rre
i could be wrong of course