I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[goodday1] 05/10/2022 13:34

What do we want now???A tick-up.Gl all

[bluemango] 05/10/2022 12:26

#26074

What an odd comment. A year ago Serenity drilling was still months away (was it even scheduled?), the whole Energy Crisis issue was far less apparent to most & there was no invasion of Ukraine, quite apart from what an individual investor's priorities might have been 12 months ago. The dividend was also significant lower and nor was it paid monthly back then. The entire outlook for I3E has transformed since then.

Every investment should be taken with a view looking forwards; meanwhile what's past is past.

[goodday1] 05/10/2022 12:22

Look at the delayed big buys printed.Gl all

[ballymoss18] 05/10/2022 12:22

Why buy at 27p? when you could have bought in single digits a year ago?

[edgein] 05/10/2022 12:21

Tony,

Cheers fella good luck to you too! Not long now to the Q3 and Serenity result, I hope you're looking forward to these as much as I am!

Well I'll clarify the significance of Net Zero by a comment made by Mr Oddie, he believes that they got into Serenity at the right time as it'll potentially produce its oil reserves during the transition to "net zero".

If those recoverable reserves are anything between the P50 and P10 that's gonna be a hell of a lot of FCF.

Regards,
Ed.

[orhlsw7] 05/10/2022 12:09

After having looked at this for over a year or so, I have decided to buy 100K shares yesterday. This seems to look like a very good play.

[tonynorstrom1] 05/10/2022 12:05

Edgein,

I would like to have a more constructive dialogue with you rather than a competition to prove who knows the most - and perhaps I have been guilty of this.

I still dont get your point on Net Zero - my only reason for bringing it up is that whether you agree with it or not - it has had a massive effect on the Oil and Gas Sector and in particular investments into it. Also a primary reason (IMO) why reserves (and SP's) are not valued higher due to concerns whether they will become a stranded asset.

I haven't dismissed out of hand the metrics provided by the Company but I dont take them at face value either - I vet them and compare to other sources but difficult to do a proper comparison because i3e have not told you who the peer group is so im my view - prudent to check.

FCF I agree is not the complete picture but its probably one of the most important metrics and is a good starting point - all in my opinion and you probably noticed I got a ticking off from Parge !

Anyway - good luck with your investment here!

[edgein] 05/10/2022 11:41

Tony,

Interesting, here's some more facts for you oil and gas prices are significantly higher now than they have been in the recent past that is regardless of all the waffle of net Zero, something that you keep repeatedly bringing up. Brent is over $90/bbl, gas prices are through the roof as a result of heading for net zero. They seem to pick and choose what carbon to use when calculating net zero, therefore largely irrelevant. I've also seen various projections of the production gap between now and the mythical net zero which suggests several million bbls daily oil production deficit between now and then. Simple market dynamics of supply and demand.

The shale boom certainly had a material impact on oil prices due to over supply, when have we had the same as a result of net zero? Don't tell me green energy isn't living up to all the hype. Interesting too that you refer to an oil analyst and yet are quick to dismiss the volumetrics of the companies and their valuation metrics confirmed by their brokers. Again up to you.

FCF I would personally class as only a small part of the picture as that would make a mature company with assets in decline look like good value as its no longer got growth assets. Whereas in reality its just simply a company in decline. FCF totally ignores the likes of Serenity and the developmental drilling which is very much part of the picture even though its currently not part of the valuation. Comparisons of M&A (especially with North sea producers) + other metrics served me very well over the last 30+ years as an oil and gas investor and made me a lot of money, so I don't really need advice on that front, thanks anyway though.

Best of luck following Mr Nutall etc. Mr Buffet was more into the likes of Coca Cola, Apple, Chevron than the small to mid cap oilers, so I can see why he would like FCF and divi yields etc.

Regards,
Ed.

[goodday1] 05/10/2022 11:12

Paying 27.5878 actually Gl all

[bluemango] 05/10/2022 10:50

Playing games with the bid again. Can actually sell for 27.33p.

Not that you'd want to ...

[1knocker] 05/10/2022 10:38

In a sector with volatile earnings like to see a company pay a conservative dividend, and declare specials when profits are better than it can be confident will be achieved. That avoids the temptation to stress the balance sheet by maintaining (no company likes to cut) a dividend in thin periods. A December special would be a welcome Christmas bonus!

[tonynorstrom1] 05/10/2022 10:31

thanks for that Parge - I feel like i've just been told off by the Head Teacher !

[tonynorstrom1] 05/10/2022 10:21

For anyone that is interested - here is the link to a report that is generated quarterly with the latest valuations / price targets for pretty much all 57 Oil & Gas Companies in the Canadian space including i3e.

hxxps://www.whitetundra.ca/pricetargets

I have summarized the data below. I3E is significantly undervalued against its peers but not by as much as the figures quoted by Ed - IMO only based on the data i'm looking at. I could be wrong which is why investors should DYOR and make their own mind up. Don't always take take presentations and reports at face value - vet the data !!

26-Aug-22-----FCFx-----COMPANY
Dearest-------21.74----Rubellite
Cheapest-------2.18----PetroTal Corp
Mean-----------4.53----Journey Energy
Median---------4.83----Grand Tierra
i3e------------2.85----i3 Energy

Eric Nuttall regularly post valuation graphs on his twitter Feed which is well worth a look at.

[goodday1] 05/10/2022 10:18

even at 1 pound.Gl all from Spain ??

[goodday1] 05/10/2022 10:17

There will always be buyers, even at £1.It is all future evaluation.Gl all

[36redhill] 05/10/2022 10:05

Tony When one enters into a discussion and his or her thoughts on the subject are requested it does not necessarily mean they must be aligned to yours. Come on, your better than this mate.Regards and good luck.Parge

[moonshot3] 05/10/2022 10:01

So there's still a chance to buy this week or Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday next week and pick up the monthly dividend as well as participating in potential Serenity upside and potential rise in POO, if OPEC + follow through on production cut today.

[tonynorstrom1] 05/10/2022 09:41

Edgein,

What facts have you presented ?? More a lot of hot air if you ask me. I can provide you the link to the valuations for all 57+/- Canadian Companies if you wish also some links to Eric Nuttalls valuation metrics - let me know. I dont get your jibe at all on net Zero - I've not expressed an opinion as to the rights or wrong of that debate - I am merely stating the impact that it has had/having on the Oil Sector, valuations, share prices etc.

Also a tip for you - better to track FCF, CF or EBITDA multiples - best is FCF. I dont think anyone really values based on NOI because it doesnt take into account other significant costs such as SG&A. What you're really interested in is how much cash the business is generating - not how much the CEO is getting paid. FCF yield is the Gold Standard according to Warren Buffet.

[gusto01] 05/10/2022 09:28

Need to break 28p first....

[gusto01] 05/10/2022 08:12

Don't sell YOUR shares!Hold..!GLA

[1choip] 05/10/2022 08:12

likely to break 30p soon

[edgein] 05/10/2022 07:59

Tony,

Blah blah blah. You're as bad as Greta when you're faced with facts. When MS said peer group I would imagine he was taking about similar companies in terms of size and production etc. As I'm not a mind reader I cannot say which companies he was referring to, but then I guess you can! :) So yes I believe him when he said we're on x1.5 NOI approx and they're on 3-4x NOI. Frankly I don't care if that upsets you.

Why did I use the period of 2006-2016, well that's the only comparative period for the oil price as it was $80-140/bbl. Wouldn't be much use comparing it to acquisitions between 2016 and 2022 would it, when there was a Saudi/USA shale war on and the oil price hit $20/bbl or during covid where many companies almost went bust and acquisitions were dirt cheap as oil went briefly negative.

Then you keep harping on about net zero, about the biggest con of all. Did you see Panorama the other night about the DRAX power station, green energy. Apparently it produces over 13m tn of carbon each year and that those wood pellets release more carbon than coal. Its not counted towards your net zero figure either as its deemed as renewables! Net zero is all one big scam. It would be better for the environment to convert it back and burn britsh coal again rather than ship those wood pellets from Canada. Greta and your net zero myth has done wonders for the oil and gas prices though by sending them back to levels not seen since 2006-2016.

There are numerous examples that fit with the acquisition price of $12-18/bbl but I could post up lots of those but I still reckon you wouldn't be happy. But I've proved my point Tony. I don't want to see Serenity sold, I want to see it developed. There's a few companies that sold key assets like this but they are few and far between, but if you were as smart as you think you are you would know about those. EOG saw fit to use those metrics in their presentation so again if you don't like it take it up with them, but I reckon they'll give you less air time than I have. :)

Regards,
Ed.

[pro_s2009] 05/10/2022 07:13

No...but one hopes with the Dollar strong, its going to be increased soon, maybe it will from January 2023 ? and we get a special dividend in December 22 ?

[haideralifool] 05/10/2022 07:09

Was there ever any doubt that it would not be 0.1425 pence/share?