I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[moonshot3] 04/10/2022 18:13

Anonymous reports now that OPEC+ may be considering 2m bbls per day production cut. I guess we find out tomorrow.

[bluemango] 04/10/2022 16:31

Delayed report of 150k buy from 3:28pm.

Edit: And others similar. Not massive in the scheme of things but at least the price eventually improved on the day.

[edgein] 04/10/2022 16:18

Tony,

I've just wasted 5 mins or so here is what I'm talking about:



$388m for 22mmboe (64% oil). There are a host of others out there but unfortunately I have other things to do with my time than trawl through old news releases. Like trawl through current news releases. :)

Regards,
Ed.

[gusto01] 04/10/2022 16:16

They want your shares.... Now upping the sell price..Hold your shares tight.!GLA

[edgein] 04/10/2022 15:42

Tony,

The reference to I3E's NOI and our undervaluation to our Canadian peers was taken from MS presentation at the very recent one2one forum, did you miss that Tony?

Did you find the one2one presentation misleading?

Edit,

They weren't like for like companies they were mainly NS production companies, but the assets were mainly like for like in that they were NS 2P oil reserves.

Regards,
Ed.

[bluemango] 04/10/2022 15:38

What you appear to be saying Tony is that you agree the market is undervaluing this, your only issue (which you seem at some pains to point out!) being the quantum, yes?

[tonynorstrom1] 04/10/2022 15:35

Ed,

You’ve said that before Ed about trading ranges in 2006 - 2018 but you’ve not provided any references so impossible to check whether they are like for like Comparisons including whether theses “transactions” include productions.
So personally I don’t pay much attention to any information that you cannot vet.

Also your information on valuations against Canadian Peers is potentially misleading or with no context . There’s an Independent Analyst (Shubham Garg) in Canada - you may be familiar with him. He Produces an excel table with the valuations of all 50 plus Canadian companies every Qtr - there may be one or two Companies that trade at 3-4x NOI but the notion that I3E trade at 40-50% discount to the average company in Canada i is not correct. Eric Nuttall also puts out valuations which you might want to review. Anyway - I don’t want to get into an argument with one of the better posters on this board - so I’m going to leave it there. And good luck to us both in the coming weeks!

[edgein] 04/10/2022 15:10

Mark,

Indeed, busy news period this month, not just the obvious with the NS drilling, but I3E released their Q3 financial and operations updates between 21-26th October in the last couple of years. Something to keep those in for the Canadian assets entertained too.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 04/10/2022 14:44

Tony,

My posts about oil and gas acquisitions between 2006-2018 and valuations of $12-18/bbl were based on 2P either PDP or PUD and nothing to do with Tennyson nor Prospective.

So you are one of those investors that think that something is fair value based on the current trading price? Crazy, its your money though.

Its interesting that I3E trades at 1.5x NOI while their Canadian peers trade at 3-4x NOI (not factoring in Serenity of course). Interesting discount being applied to I3E suggests to me its trading nowhere near fair value, but it might be soon.

Regards,
Ed.

[roundtheworld] 04/10/2022 14:25

Mark

Which way???

I hope you mean up?

[tonynorstrom1] 04/10/2022 14:17

Pro,

that was really the jist of my question - if buyers are currently willing to pay only 25p - why is it worth more than 50p - are you accepting WHI's valuation as a fundamental truth?

[markstevenkirby80] 04/10/2022 14:14

Next week we see movement

[pro_s2009] 04/10/2022 14:09

Any share is only worth what someone is willing to buy it for. Thats simple supply and demand.

I3E is worth more than 50p........so buy and hold and value will out.

[bluemango] 04/10/2022 14:01

No, WHI value I3E at 66p.

[tonynorstrom1] 04/10/2022 13:59

Pro,

You say the share is worth nearly 50p - to be more precise, I think what your saying is that WHI VALUE i3e at 50p.

Currently the market is valuing i3e at 25.5p - so what is i3e really worth ?

[bluemango] 04/10/2022 13:07

Not surprised that some choose to play it that way; the surprise for me is that it's in enough net volume to dip the valuation at this time (of all times)

[pro_s2009] 04/10/2022 12:57

bluemango its down imo because.........

A lot of people will be playing the "I will sell ahead of Serenity and if Serenity fails I will buy back cheaper and have a load more shares and bigger monthly dividend"

Trouble is of course......firstly, Serenity comes in good, then there is a stampede to buy in........

Secondly.......Serenlty fails then share price falls and then a wave of every man and his dog buying hits and the share price recovers very fast and not many people get to buy low prices.

It will fall somewhat if Serenity fails, but it will rebound very fast as the Canadian business on its own is worth nearly 50p a share, and here we are currently at 25p........

[pro_s2009] 04/10/2022 12:52

For sure an RNS in the morning.

Its "November Dividend" RNS at 7am on Wednesday 5th of October.

Another 0.1425p

Will there be a special ? Will there be an increase ? or just same again 0.1425p ?

[bluemango] 04/10/2022 12:47

Beggars belief that there are any sellers at all, one of the few reds today on my monitor.

[pro_s2009] 04/10/2022 12:42

Real fun times ahead with some oilers.......to name a few.


PANR flow test news can be anytime soon - strong rerating to around 175p to 200p if good.

I3E spudded Serenity 22nd Sep - Can triple the current share price if good.
30 days drilling/logging - potential side track if successful

ECO spudding Gazania-1 now - potential 10 bagger if good.
25 days drilling/logging - potential side track if successful

October is a month for "big" news.....

[tonynorstrom1] 04/10/2022 12:31

it was before the pandemic Ed and also Tennyson are not valuing 2P reserves - its a risked valuation on Contingent resources so Zama is probably more applicable than you think. Anyway - your entitled to your opinion Ed - its your money.

[edgein] 04/10/2022 11:56

As for what Serenity is worth right now as an appraisal target, I'd say about £28m as that would be the gross value given what EOG has paid for 25%. How much will it be worth after mid October, well that's something we're all interested in finding out. Just how much of that prospective would be converted to recoverable. Sure there are many companies on AIM that are valued between 10-600m+ just on their prospective exploration targets but again they're like chalk and cheese vs I3E. The interesting thing that sets I3E out is that its not even valued correctly on the Canadian assets so lets see what happens near term. No hype or upside built in here for growth nor Serenity. Currently 20 of the 35 wells for 2022 have met or exceeded expectations so I see upside on the 154mmboe 2P this year, again not priced in.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 04/10/2022 11:38

Tony,

I don't really see the relevance as in 2019/20 we had the covid pandemic and oil was a lot lot less than $90/bbl also P50 is prospective not 2P which is what I'm talking about, what Serenity could be worth if it comes in big. Not what its currently worth before appraisal. I expect after this drilling Serenity will be booked at 2P especially as they're likely to have more flow data (either from vertical, sidetrack or both) and are talking about fast tracking development. I don't see an issue for I3E to raise RBL for Serenity given their current assets therefore shouldn't be a contingency. As for reference to P50 I wouldn't imagine that would be worth any more than a basic jv cost/farm in. Pretty much why Serenity is currently valued in at £0 here at present on a possible P50 prospective. 2P reserves and P50 prospective resources are worlds apart in terms of valuation.

Regards,
Ed.