I E Hy Cp Bnd A Discussion Threads

[oliverleftwingtit] 18/10/2002 21:57

Deanno old chum, just a foot up for you but I notice you don't have Robbie Burns amongst the list of contact sites at the top of your board here he is, and don't forget he's the chap who was on channel 5 each day on Ceefax or the other.

This guy goes long short , left right and centre. He post every day and he writes in I think the Sunday Telegraph. He's a good mate of mine as I taught him the ropes at an invetment house. He is also the guy who blew the whistle on Evil K when he was forced to Buy back part of SBT call.

You can make good money with this guy and I would have thought just right for this thread.

Regards Oliver. ps, you will find the Evil thing in his Diary, think it was 17th of last month.

[oliverleftwingtit] 18/10/2002 21:34

Sorry chaps on Fundementals alone we are now at the start of a new Bull Market.
In just the last few days the big guys in the US have ouperformed re-adjusted figures that lets face it were set on the high side as not to cause a collapse in their share price. If you are frightened off that I suggest you take note of Benjamin Grahams advise" he who thinks and thinks again is the man who misses the great opportunities in markets. The man who thinks on his feet is the man who takes the prize".

Regards Oliver.

[2deano] 18/10/2002 18:46

Indalo,

I agree - we're not in a new bull market ( by definition we cannot be anyway).

We're in the throes of a bear market rally which will take us over 9000...

New lows next year: Yes
Bear market to end, possibly: around Mid 2003
Bear market rally now: Yes
A good one? Yes
Seen the lows this year? I think so. One or two people I respect don't agree with this, but I just can't see it myself. Look at all the liquidity being pumped into the market + bond collapse + re-test of July lows + chasing of equities + season favouring move.
Retracment as deep as July's? I don't think so.

Retracement then off to the races......

Trend is very strong.

Deano

[2deano] 18/10/2002 18:30

Insider - cheers.
Oliver - Was that you waving the white flag again? ;-)

A quick one before I break for the weekend.

BONDS: The daily picture: -

1) Trend line break
2) Gaps down

Collapsed.......

[insider trader.] 18/10/2002 17:14

Now the question is: Next week, up or down, as a few stocks are just at their resistance points or just gone through........... Up or down I don't care unless I miss it! ;O)

P.S Good thread.

[indalo] 18/10/2002 16:53

Notice that Rolls 1% decline today was on VERY light volume...A big volume break of 105 will be decisive IMO

Added to JRVS today...it's settled right back at 200p...so low risk with a stop just below previous lows (189p)

LGEN was strong all day and closed right on resistance.


Oliver, I'm bullish in the short term...I think this rally will really go places (by which I mean Dow 9000+), but I simply can't see ANY stimulus for a new bull market.....So while I don't buy any of this ridiculously bearish twaddle on the DROP thread suggesting Dow 5000 by Xmas, I accept that we are in a long term bear market and I fully expect to see new lows next year unless there is a miraculous economic expansion...which is nigh on impossible!!!

Tell me, what makes you so bullish in the medium term?

[oliverleftwingtit] 18/10/2002 16:41

Deanno, your right about the bears being FOCT so to speak. Its up all the way from here. We are in the next Bull Market accept it and stop trying to be defensive. Im sure a bright lad like you can make money in a new bull market. Good Luck and have a good weekend.

Regards Oliver.
ps, im liking this new thread of yours well done. Don't like those pictures on the front though.

[2deano] 18/10/2002 16:35

Bonds falling = money into EQUITIES.

Nobody seems to get it.

lol

Have a great weekend all.

[2deano] 18/10/2002 16:08

Not one mention of fund managers piling into stocks or bonds breaking down over on the FOCT thread...... They continue to break down today...

GLH held at previous intra-day support point around 645 today ( was actually 644 intra day low ).

Next point below that was/is 610p.

The crash everybody was waiting for isn't gonna happen now this year IMO. Too much liquidity being pumped into the market. We've had a re-test and I think people have seen the 02 lows.

Now it's just a question of how much we retrace before further advances....

And at the moment the market is having none of it on expiration day : +33 as I write...

[Abuse team] 18/10/2002 12:12

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[2deano] 17/10/2002 14:11

Nice to see some input on here guys.

FOCT thread now starting to look like a 'war of the singed' and is reminding me of desperate bull syndrome in reverse with some of the posts.

Yesterday the CBOE Put Call Ratio was 1.25 which was one of the highest of the entire bear market.

Nobody believes that we have seen the bottom this year and everybody is looking for massive retracements.

That is worrying for people currently bearish of the market. When the shoe shine boy is a bear, then the market will allocate the capital away from the majority..

However, I will throw a caveat in and say that calendar analysis suggested a yearly low between Oct 16th and Nov 2nd, so anything can happen.....

I also thought a short term decline was on the cards, at least a fib retrace of 38% or so from recent high... I don't trust rises with great verocity..... that is atypical bear market action 90% of the time.

Tricky times.... market could do anything. There is clear and concise logic as to why the market should rally though. Put/call ratio high = marks important bottoms in the market + bonds failed ( uptrend failed + gaps down and massive volumes exiting bonds this morning ) - allocates capital out of bonds into equities........ bonds no longer safe haven.... it was a bubble. Also re-tested July lows within 60 days...

Ape/Indalo - thanks for the comments - appreciated.

All thoughts welcome> I'm thinking out aloud :-)

Cheers

Deano

[yz426] 17/10/2002 13:34

small inverse head and shoulders: tobaccos:

[Abuse team] 17/10/2002 12:25

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[indalo] 17/10/2002 11:16

Worth looking at RR. and some insurers IMO

PRU and LGEN are close to trend resistance...my bet is they'll break out which will give some support from stops.

All three of these are geared plays on the market rising because of the insusrer's solvency issues and Rolls has a stock related pension deficit which will start to shrink as the FTSE surges.

I'm long RR and LGEN

PS: Also added to JRVS with stop at 189...it's never traded below 192

[oliverleftwingtit] 17/10/2002 10:42

theape, or should I say Dean. Takeall as nothing to do with me, I think it's that idiot Slater who stalked the SBT board about 6 months ago. He's obviously out to try and cause trouble just ignore him.

I see sporting bet is up again this morning. Five days on the trot. You did ask for ideas in your header for recovery stocks, well if your supporters have missed this one they have lost out on 43% gain in just five days.

Still plenty to come though going up to results on the 31st of this month.

Regards Oliver.

[theape] 16/10/2002 23:44

some guys are here a while because they make money and keep their names.

some guys are new ( and will soon be parted from their cash).

some guys are old ( and have already been parted, hence new names).

I see deano's posts, and know he makes money.

thats all that matters really. and he feels no need for an alias.

why would someonene an alias, or want one.

same weirdos who dress up in their mummy's clothes I bet.

ollie tit..

[Abuse team] 16/10/2002 23:28

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[indalo] 16/10/2002 16:14

Oliver, what exactly is your problem???

Deano has taken a view, which is based on his own analysis.....Just because it doesn't concurr with Zak bloody Mir's ideas doesn't mean it's not valid!!

Do you believe everything these guys say??more fool you!

Deano has clearly said that he expects this rally to continue after a pullback..but that NEXT YEAR we will see a resumption of the bear trend.

And anyway, didn't Schwartz give a buy signal last spring?...by your reckoning that makes the last six months a bad dream hey?!

Big waz if you made blah blah blah on SBT..I couldn't care less.

[oliverleftwingtit] 16/10/2002 16:04

Deanno, you say the new Bull market has not started. Why does Zak Mir dissagree with you then over on T1ps??????????????????.

Ok we have had a day when people have taken profits. I myself have and bagged just over 40% increase on Sporting Bet. You have stated that you felt there would be a rally at the top of this thread. You can't blame me for trying to help other punters make some money.

Regards Oliver.

[oliverleftwingtit] 16/10/2002 12:47

Its Official a NEW BULL MARKET HAS BEGUN. Check this out



I thought Goodfella was way off track with his Elliot waves.

Regards Oliver.

[oliverleftwingtit] 16/10/2002 11:01

SHORTIES, please stop kidding yourselves. The new Bull Market has begun. If anybody knows its SCHWARTZ and he is saying that it has begun. I think you are running on fear now, no offence.

Why not accept the fact and get into undervalued stock like Sporting Bet up another 9% this morning, which makes it nearly 40% in four days now.

The test will come over the next three days in the states where all the big boys are reporting. Initial reaction out of the US from poor results from intel and Motorola is positive. The yanks are now not turning their attention to one trick shisters. Eddie George hinted in a speech last night that interest rates would drop to fuel further growth. The number in work is up.

WHAT MORE DO YOU GUYS WANT.

Regards Oliver.

[2deano] 16/10/2002 08:58

New bull market has most definitely *not* begun. It is my belief we are in a secular bear market and that will probably lead to new lows next year. In the interim we'll get a good rally before it all rolls over again in 03. Market has to take out long term moving averages to qualify as a new bull market. It's far from doing that.

970 key level on S&P.

Market has rallied 14% in a very short space of time. This is atypical of bear market action.

We'll now inevitably see some corrective action after this swift rise. This may lend itself to the indices falling again significantly before a sustained rally can get underway.

Last Thursdays low was not capitulatory.

Market needs to take out and hold above yesterdays high for a week.

Good luck all...

[mr ashley james] 16/10/2002 02:06

Ape,

Agreed, look at Eliott Wave count, you can only IMHO long undervalued shares, not in the long term overvalued stocks!

Cheers

Ash

[theape] 16/10/2002 01:20

you will note from my picks that I have made a fewbob being long last few days.

new bull market most certainly hasn't begun.

the market will wait until all the mugs have piled back in over the next few days.

and then it will screw you.

(I will be short again by then).