Hydro Intl Share Discussion Threads

[nhb] 22/3/2007 13:36

rivaldo,

That's a fair question for the FD. Do you have his email? I will ping him.

Thanks
NHB

[cambium] 22/3/2007 09:54

a tick up indeed

[linhur] 20/3/2007 18:38

Guy Thomas has reduced his holding by 25,000 shares since the 2005 Report was issued (21/2/2006).
Hazel Carr Edwards FURB has the same holding of 750,000
Impax Enviromental and lloyds Bank appear to be increasing holdings over the last year

Regards
Linhur

[cheap] 20/3/2007 08:46

edited - misleading conjecture.

[stegrego] 19/3/2007 21:38

Looks like people adding to me - infact id say that all 3 are adds
- crossing 3%, 5% and 6%

[nhb] 19/3/2007 21:05

Three announcements in recent days. Anyone clear on what they mean?

[rivaldo] 09/3/2007 14:21

Peel Hunt are absolutely useless with regard to this stock. Any decent broker would have been prepared and produced an update on the morning of the results -yet so far, nothing.

A decent broker would also have advised HYD to put out a trading statement telling of results ahead of expectations. Again, nothing.

As a result a few small sellers are dragging the price down - there's no buying interest because no-one's generating any interest, especially with the lack of an adjusted EPS in the results. It's almost as if it's a deliberate policy of vagueness!

All I do know is that 2007 forecasts should be at least 11.5p EPS imo. In which case there is a buying opportunity here. It's just a matter of when to jump in.

[nhb] 07/3/2007 15:59

Thanks for passing that reply on rivaldo.

Back to sleep I go for another 6 months until the interims.....

[gac100] 07/3/2007 13:19

A thought - if PH put out a note "in the near future" (and if that's in the next few weeks), then I'd expect the forecasts to be on the cautious side, given the current US rebids and AMP4 uncertainties; although certain to be an increase on the present forecasts I'd have thought. If that's the case, and the US bids and AMP4 projects come through strongly in the 2nd/3rd quarters, then PH might well have to revise forecasts upwards again. So, in that speculative scenario, we could see a nice rising share price through the year.

[gac100] 07/3/2007 13:02

Rivaldo - thanks for this, and good to see a prompt, helpful and transparently honest reply from the FD to your enquiry. Let's hope Peel Hunt increase forecasts soon. Weren't they saying last year that their forecast then (ie the forecast that has remained unchanged since) was cautious? That an upgrade later in the year was possible/probable (can't recall how strongly it was put)? I'm already looking forward to the interims! - to see how the US rebids and AMP4 spending are coming on.

[rivaldo] 07/3/2007 12:38

OK, I got a reply from the FD (thx Tony). Nothing sensational:

- he confirms highlighting the adjusted EPS would be a good idea in future
- Peel Hunt will be producing an update "in the near future" (get your finger out PH for a change)
- the point raised about the order book was correct, but HYD remain positive and encouraged by enquiry levels

The main points however:

- "We are hopeful that US projects delayed in 2006 will rebid in 2007 and that we will win contracts in this area."

And:

"In the Chairman's statement to the preliminary results we discuss the position with regard to AMP4. This is difficult to predict and as such we stated an expectation of an "increase in AMP4 spending in 2007". The scale of this increase is currently uncertain, but we would hope that, entering year 3 of a 5 year programme, the projects would start coming through in order to avoid a rush in the last couple of years."

Overall I remain extremely happy with HYD and believe it could be extremely cheap on fundamentals (i.e the adjusted EPS) for 2007 onwards. The forecasts will have to be increased and should be interesting.

[rivaldo] 07/3/2007 12:15

My temporary L2 tells me 3v1 at present - doesn't this suggest today's dip is rather artificial?

[rivaldo] 07/3/2007 08:55

Nice verdict on the results from Armshare, though again they've missed the 9.94p adjusted EPS. I'm wondering what on earth Peel Hunt are doing for their money - no reports yet of any updates anywhere:



"The final results to December 2006 showed sales of £22.4 million (2005: £18.6 million), pre-tax profit of £1.7 million (2005: £1.4 million), EPS of 8.87p (2005: 6.88p) and DPS of 2.3p (2005: 2.0p). The company reported that year end cash was £2.7 million.

Research Standing
Provides attractive exposure to water becoming a scarce commodity.

A broker update has been requested."

[rivaldo] 06/3/2007 22:29

LOL cheap! NHB, the pigeon is winging it's way already....

[cheap] 06/3/2007 21:43

Results certainly seem to have stirred things up - more than a thousand shares traded in total over the last two days.

[nhb] 06/3/2007 15:52

Go on rivaldo, send an email. You know you want to. :-))

It would also be a good opportunity to raise gac100's point about sales & enquiries.

Cheers
NHB

[rivaldo] 06/3/2007 11:01

I absolutely know what you mean cheap. But that's still no reason for HYD not to abide by the "usual" rules of disclosure to announce that results will be ahead of expectations. A wider base of investors and more interest in the company is in everyone's interest if it means more liquidity and increased awareness etc.

Also, no word yet from Peel Hunt in the usual broker round-ups yesterday following the results. I'll see if I can find out anything.

[cheap] 06/3/2007 08:38

Rivaldo - I'd much prefer them not to issue a 'substantially ahead' RNS. The result of that is often for the price to run up dramatically and then pull back and stagnate for a while. Actual, detailed figures allow long term investors to make an informed decision and avoid too much froth.

[rivaldo] 06/3/2007 07:43

Interesting thought - with 9.94p adjusted EPS for 2006 compared to 8.61p as forecast, HYD could have issued a "substantially ahead" trading statement since they're more than 10% ahead of forecasts (15% to be precise).

Imagine what that would have done to the share price. Instead they've not even mentioned the adjusted EPS in the results RNS, let alone issued a trading statement.

Is this a deliberate policy for some reason? I feel an e-mail coming on...

Anyway, the historic 2006 EPS was actually ahead of the 2007 forecast of 9.84p EPS, so I'd have thought the brokers are going to have to seriously upgrade.

[gac100] 05/3/2007 13:38

Didn't intend to "overdo" the negatives Rivaldo - just my, to borrow a phrase, "normal caution" ;-)

You're right about the probable temporary nature of most of 2006's challenging conditions. My slight concern was more with 2007 orders.

You say: "The use of the terms "buoyant" and "encouraging" is good enough for me relative to HYD's management's normal caution."

My main point was that this year management are using the terms "buoyant" and "encouraging" to describe "enquiries", whereas last year similar terms were being used to describe "orders". Subtle difference. Nevertheless I do expect plenty of orders to materialise from the enquiries.

The 2006 financial performance was certainly very good especially in the not altogether favourable trading conditions, and I think you're right, that's the main thing + or - to take from the results.

[rivaldo] 05/3/2007 13:04

I feel that it's wrong to overdo the negatives in view of the excellent performance and positive outlook, especially bearing in mind that in respect of those negatives:

- AMP4 expenditure will have to begin soon, and when it does I assume the delays mean the expenditure will be that much more in a shorter timeframe

- water conservation sales might lift after last week's Ecobuild, but this is a longer-term proposition to build on HYD's main product portfolio

- in the USA wastewater sector it appears there will be several key projects coming up for approval etc soon, so this may provide good news for 2007

The use of the terms "buoyant" and "encouraging" is good enough for me relative to HYD's management's normal caution.

Above all, 9.94p EPS is now historic. If we look at, say, 11.5p EPS for 2007 HYD is on a current year P/E of just 13.3 - before stripping out the £2.7m cash.