Hvivo Share Discussion Threads

[lfdkmp] 13/1/2025 16:25

Visibility and sentiment.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/1/2025 16:11

No one seems to be taking the update in the 10th December RNS at face value. What do you think has changed in the last month? Is the perception now that the outlook for 2025 is going to be significantly worse than the 2024 figures?

[chica1] 13/1/2025 15:50

It's been a brutal selloff.
How bad are 2025 numbers going to be?

There is no way they can beat 2024 numbers

[troutisout] 13/1/2025 08:20

So about 6 months behind the timeline, I wonder if the client is still onboard? There has been a lot of news about hMPV recently...

"28/06/2023 7:00am
UK Regulatory

Hvivo (LSE:HVO)

RNS Number : 1072E

hVIVO PLC

28 June 2023

hVIVO plc

("hVIVO" or the "Company")

hVIVO to develop human metapneumovirus (hMPV) challenge model

First client of the new hMPV model secured

hVIVO plc (AIM & Euronext: HVO) , (formerly Open Orphan plc) a rapidly growing specialist contract research organisation and world leader in testing infectious and respiratory disease products using human challenge clinical trials, is developing a human metapneumovirus (hMPV) challenge model. hVIVO has signed an agreement with a North American biopharmaceutical company to manufacture a hMPV virus and conduct a characterisation study, with the intent to conduct a subsequent hMPV challenge trial in 2024 to test the efficacy of its vaccine candidate.

hVIVO will commence Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) compliant virus manufacturing activities immediately and this is expected to complete in H1 2024. The Company will then conduct a characterisation study to identify a safe and infectious dose of wild-type hMPV in up to 36 healthy adult volunteers. Dependent on the successful completion of the characterisation study and receipt of relevant regulatory approvals, the Company expects to conduct hMPV challenge trials from H2 2024. The majority of the revenue from this end-to-end human challenge service will be recognised in 2024.

The client intends to utilise the efficacy data from the challenge study to define the endpoints for its hMPV vaccine candidate's clinical development programme, as well as providing a greater understanding of virus progression, aiding dosing decisions and confirming previous animal study results. This will allow the client to streamline future trials and make critical go/no-go decisions more quickly, therefore accelerating the development of the vaccine candidate.

hMPV is a common virus that causes an upper respiratory infection, similar to the common cold. Symptoms include cough, fever, nasal congestion, and shortness of breath. Most people have mild cases of hMPV, but severe cases can result in bronchiolitis, bronchitis and pneumonia. hMPV is associated with approximately 20% of respiratory tract infections in children worldwide(1) . Up to 16% of the children infected with hMPV develop more severe symptoms(2) , with over 16,000 deaths worldwide in children under the age of five each year.(3) Despite its prevalence and potential severity, there are currently no vaccines or antivirals approved to treat hMPV.(4)

Yamin 'Mo' Khan, Chief Executive Officer of hVIVO, said: "We are delighted to be developing the industry's first commercial hMPV human challenge model. The continued expansion of our challenge model portfolio aligns with our mission to deliver today's healthcare by empowering tomorrow's innovation. We hope to help our client to bring their treatment to patients faster through the utilisation of a new unique human challenge model. We will continue to expand our library of challenge models and provide a mechanism for our customers to expedite their drug development."

Dr Andrew Catchpole, Chief Scientific Officer of hVIVO, said: "hVIVO's unique expertise and world leading capabilities enables us to provide our clients with a full human challenge service offering, including the development of bespoke challenge models. As demonstrated with RSV, hVIVO can also play a vital role in speeding up drug development for hMPV, which currently has no approved vaccine or antiviral treatment."

[chica1] 13/1/2025 07:57

I'm sorry but the first news of 2025 needed to be a contract.

[burtond1] 13/1/2025 07:54

hVIVO successfully completes pilot characterisation study for hMPV, prepares for challenge trialshttps://youtu.be/eTkrPKIr-h0

[lauders] 13/1/2025 07:35

Good news from the company today. More bricks in place:

Dr Andrew Catchpole, Chief Scientific Officer of hVIVO plc, said: "The pilot hMPV characterisation study in healthy volunteers was designed to test the feasibility of this new model and has been very successful, producing good infectivity rates and clear disease symptoms. Like the hVIVO RSV models, I am confident our hMPV model can play a crucial role in speeding up the development of a first vaccine or antiviral for this global pathogen, which is currently causing particular concern in China1 where a surge in cases has been recorded."

[ali47fish] 13/1/2025 07:34

hope this is significant- seerns today

[bossyboss] 09/1/2025 13:53

And obviously, all of the market makers can take part in the auction if they choose..

[bossyboss] 09/1/2025 10:18

Apologies , I meant an order on Poolbeg !!

[sambuca] 08/1/2025 20:44

Bossyboss
I thought that the end of day uc trades were the mms balancing their books will have to read up on it, thanks for the info.
Still do not really see how it affects the share price when the quoted price is the same the day before and the day after.

Sam

[protrader3] 08/1/2025 19:26

The market makers will smash the price down if Mo doesn't deliver. Unless he can pull something spectacular out of the bagm the share price will give us an indication of what to expect. If it keeps drifting down 10p is very much on the cards. Be careful people.

[bossyboss] 08/1/2025 15:40

As there would be a very real possibility of a swift bid .. I can't see institutions being supportive of Mo if this is as bad as I fear and they will want out .

[sikhthetech] 08/1/2025 15:38

Yes, getting closer to my 10p target..

Where are the 30p brigade? Trout, 1gw, Pierre, Supernumerary etc etc
Surely given these have fallen 40%, they are loading up????

I see FAB was also pumped/dumped, as predicted.



sikhthetech - 11 Dec 2024 - 12:32:22 - 8962 of 9143 hVIVO plc - HVO
Trout,

"At 30p and with £62m revs expected the mkt cap was £200m (just over 3 times revs).
So does that mean current price giving us £150m mkt cap is pricing in just under £50m revs for 2025? There seems to be a good cushion there"


Wrong.

The expectations were the same when the share price was 10p, only 2 years ago, weren't they?
The share price rose on the back of the company being talked up, CEO awarded the huge >7m options, back dated a year and exercise from < 2 months time, in FEBRUARY.

A new red flag is the fy2024 TU has been pushed back to Feb (coincidence!!!).

I'd expect the share price to be nearer to 10p than 30p.

The newsflow here has been as predicted.

[bossyboss] 08/1/2025 15:34

The time to buy will be about 2 weeks after Mo warns on 2025 , but I agree it will be circa 12 p

[chica1] 08/1/2025 09:48

I actually feel bad for Hvivo.
It's a good company and does good work,but unfortunately it's too focused on Challenge Trials currently.

Also it would seem the Infectious disease cycle has peaked.

[owenski] 08/1/2025 09:01

Contracts are drying up.

[malcolmz1] 07/1/2025 23:47

As expected, this is a poor start to 2025 for HVO. It is slightly concerning why there are no big buyers at this level. I am anticipating less than impressive numbers next month and certainly not blowing the doors off. Should present a good trading opportunity closer to 12p.

[bossyboss] 07/1/2025 19:58

Sambuca, it's nothing to do with MM .. it's an auction at close of play that usually lasts 5 mins .. anybody can place a buy or a sell with whatever price and amounts.
You get what they call an uncrossed trade if any buyers and sellers are at the same price .
If there aren't then you don't get an uncrossed trade .
Auctions take place during the day too, and whenever the price has moved by more than 10%..

[sikhthetech] 07/1/2025 17:10

The share price is closer to 10p than 30p, isn't it?


sikhthetech - 11 Dec 2024 - 12:32:22 - 8962 of 9143 hVIVO plc - HVO
Trout,

"At 30p and with £62m revs expected the mkt cap was £200m (just over 3 times revs).
So does that mean current price giving us £150m mkt cap is pricing in just under £50m revs for 2025? There seems to be a good cushion there"


Wrong.

The expectations were the same when the share price was 10p, only 2 years ago, weren't they?
The share price rose on the back of the company being talked up, CEO awarded the huge >7m options, back dated a year and exercise from < 2 months time, in FEBRUARY.

A new red flag is the fy2024 TU has been pushed back to Feb (coincidence!!!).

I'd expect the share price to be nearer to 10p than 30p.

The newsflow here has been as predicted.

[sikhthetech] 07/1/2025 17:09

IIs buy using other people's money.
It was 1gw and his mates talking about II holdings.



sikhthetech - 07 Aug 2024 - 11:34:19 - 7823 of 9142 hVIVO plc - HVO
Aishah

"Neil Hermon has bought a small stake in clinical trials group Hvivo"
" makes up 0.1% of the £637m Henderson Smaller Companies Trust (HSL) portfolio."
"Hermon said in recent interim results that Hvivo offered a relatively cheap and effective way to undertake accelerated drug development."

Yes, small stake.

How much? 0.1% of £637m is £637k, yes k. Tiny, hardly significant. How's it compare to the sitting chairman dumped his near 50m holding, worth around £10m!!!


It backs up what I've been saying, does it? IIs take tiny stakes as punts.


sikhthetech - 08 Mar 2024 - 15:00:26 - 6946 of 7823 hVIVO plc - HVO
pierre,

"It's now a serious investable company imv"

Such a serious investable company that the Chairman and founder dumped majority of his holding. ;-)

How do the 1-2% holdings(punts) by institutions compare to the > 7m options held by the CEO?

Not forgetting there's evidence, from company's own figures, showing growth has slowed significantly.

Adding to the questionable business model.

[chica1] 07/1/2025 16:40

Yes Yump,I actually misjudged u..

You were issuing words of caution ⚠️ in your own vernacular way.

What's your opinion on the Poolbeg arrangement?

[yump] 07/1/2025 15:23

When you need reassurance, where is Pierre O'Ramper to tell you that it will all be fantastic in the future, because the institutions were all buying in at 30p ?

You only have to have been investing for a short time to figure out that institutions buying or selling is not a sign of anything much at all. Certainly not compared to directors buying or selling in volume or bulk.

Directors do buy when a share seem cheap to them. Institutions only buy when the story looks credible, which means its never at the bottom.

Why aren't they buying in bulk now?

[1gw] 06/1/2025 21:26

Well yes, when the UT is 5k shares one day and 15k shares the other, and reported volume each day was over 2m shares I think you can reasonably question the relevance of the UTs to price discovery.

[sambuca] 06/1/2025 19:40

MMs baffle in other words :-) Thanks 1gw

Sam