Hvivo Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 15/2/2023 13:54

I don't think it's a coincidence those tips came out at same time as the massive LTIP for MO.

I think CF is still pulling the strings and is concerned that MO will leave.

BoD is supposed to be a team, yet the LTIP is just for Mo.


If other BoD don't like the plan then there's likely to be tension in the boardroom.

If Mo was thinking of leaving then he's not going to stay just for the sake of a bit of money.

[1gw] 15/2/2023 13:45

yump - not sure I agree with that. Clearly financials will be important for long-term success and will get some focus around reporting events. I would expect Mo to be focused on delivering top-line growth for the core business together with improving financials lower down the P&L.

But HVO appears to be stuffed full of retail investors and sentiment IMO is a big factor. That has been transformed by the 3 relatively mainstream tips we've had recently (IC, Midas and Times). Those tips to some extent feed off a view of the financials, but from memory there was quite a bit of big picture stuff in them as well (growth expectations around infectious disease research). We don't know how far that tip-driven sentiment will take the shareprice, but it seems plausible that there will be some retail dip-buying activity among those who didn't get as much as they would have liked when the tips first came out. One tip can be dismissed, but 3 relatively mainstream tips are IMO likely to have a more sustained impact.

Then, also on the sentiment side, we have the laundry list of business development options that CF used to tout. IMO those were all credible when he first talked about them, but his failure to deliver and the turn in the IPO market hit their credibility hard. If a spin-off/sale (Imutex, PrEP Biopharm, DIM) were to reappear as a near-term option with a credible RNS or reporting, then that could bring more than 1 spin-off/sale into the risked valuation calculation. Actual delivery of a sale/spin-off would perhaps further lower the perceived risk of the next one.

Emergence of an institutional shareholder above the declaration threshold would presumably also be positive for sentiment.

Finally, while CF remains chairman I think medium-term (1-2 years) sale of the company is likely to remain a realistic end-point. For that, revenue multiples may be more appropriate as a valuation metric than EBITDA or net profit multiples. One of the weak-points in the finnCap valuations IMO has been their comparison with much bigger companies of revenue multiples, since overheads have much less of an impact on the bottom line for the bigger companies. But if the end-point is sale to a much bigger company then revenue multiples (or gross profit multiples) may well be a more reasonable consideration.

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 13:38

Back down to level or below..imo only..

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 13:03

No chica ..cr..ked traders in control for now..

[yump] 15/2/2023 13:02

By the way, me asking if someone has anything to say about financials is a neutral question.

I’m curious, because its apparent that loads of posters seem to know the basics about revenue, but that’s about it.

There are a couple who have posted more detail which is useful when you’re looking at prospects yourself.

We are clearly past the hype stage, so imo its the financials that will drive the price - unless the much touted possible acquirer pops up.

[chica1] 15/2/2023 12:50

I wonder if POLB's chart is about to catch up with HVO's.
They were tracking each other until recently.
Will be interesting to see.

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 12:23

Watch early buyers selling ..cr..ks..

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 12:18

Another apac contract will serve to underpin the share price ..while waiting it's traders galore..

[sikhthetech] 15/2/2023 12:05

"to get 36 volunteers ready for an Influenza study in 9 months time.""

As contracts have a long lead time, it's why revenues for the 'current year', whichever year, will always be 90%+++ booked.

The assertion that somehow because the company has already got 90%++ booked at beginning of the year and so suggesting that they are likely to significantly beat the expectation is complete BS.



sikhthetech - 06 Feb 2023 - 11:18:20 - 1708 of 2154 hVIVO plc - HVO
Owenga,

"How are they going to increase 2023 revenue if the deals keep getting booked for 2024 now?"

Happens every year. Around a year in advance, rampers start with the significantly high number, around 90%, for the coming year already book. This makes it sound like the company will significantly exceed expectations but they don't.


sikhthetech - 25 Jan 2023 - 15:27:01 - 1389 of 1706 hVIVO plc - HVO
Because of the way contracts are booked, ie months in advance, they would have 90%+ booked for 2023 and some visibility into 2024.
It's nothing new.

[owenski] 15/2/2023 11:53

Thanks for that trout.

[troutisout] 15/2/2023 11:51

Scroll down to the sponsors at the bottom, first dot in, Hvivo are Gold Sponsors of this event and sitting with the Big Boys, this is where true value will come, with US interest and a possible US listing or even a Takeout beforehand. Good to see the Company spreading their exposure...

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 11:19

Busy in polb!!:))

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 11:12

Why putting late tradesvfrom yesterday?

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 11:07

Why Fools saying a pullback before adding ?should be buying now..

[chica1] 15/2/2023 10:54

Motley Fool's (Contributor) update after impressive rise...Still relatively positive and holding,maybe even adding.The retrace to 18.11p (and bounce off it) is probably very positive imho

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 10:36

Crazy cr..ks ,.keen to take this down lower

[gg1111] 15/2/2023 10:23

Trout .. pack it in man ..your posts are becoming dafter by the day .. I will be flipping another 1m in a day or two but I will advise you in advance this time and you will look even dafter when you post your made up stories !😂😂

[chica1] 15/2/2023 10:15

At the last investor meeting I asked Mo how much capacity (revenue wise)did the company have.
He said currently £65 million?
With new markets in APAC (that I believe have not been factored in by management or brokers) and growing North America business (Europe asleep again) I believe we'll do North of £60 million for 2023.
So for once I agree with Pierre start expansion now.
I wonder where that Pneumococcal Challenge Study we were promised was in the works in 2021 has disappeared to!

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 10:12

Cr..ks going in to polb..

[troutisout] 15/2/2023 10:01

Pierre,
That's the reaction of someone caught out posting garbage.

My position is one that I add to on a regular basis and have done for 2 years now, the reason is to build a sizeable position to exit when the Company is acquired.

As for being a newbie to HVO (Flu Camp, Retroscreen), I was first acquainted to people working there in 2007, I was screened for a trail back around 2010 but had antibodies at that time, and missed out on another due to it being pulled in 2011. I know about 20 people that have taken part in Flu Camp/Retroscreen/Hvivo trials and many who conducted the trials and dealt with the Volunteer side of the business, hence I understand how long and how costly it is to get things ready and why there is a need for a lead time, eg. to get 36 volunteers ready for an Influenza study in 9 months time.
The screening facilities have increased so the bank of potential volunteers has increased with it, but they have to fit the profile and those selected still have to be perfectly healthy at the point the trial starts and many contingencies have to be in place to avoid any delays.

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 09:51

Still dumping even 2%gains ..cr..ks..

[baldrick1] 15/2/2023 09:31

Watch the cr..ks dumping @just 3-4% gains

[pierre oreilly] 15/2/2023 09:14

Iam, agree, and CF always like a health cash balance in the bank (like I do too). Theres a balance though. More capacity is needed iñ the future to grow further imv.