1gw..No actually Mo said the £25 million are still in active discussions and that more potential contracts have been added. |
Trout - I presume the LoI accounts for a good slug of the £25m, don't you? |
I suspect he isn't flavour of the month. Not the best decision to lump in here at 28p. |
Inaminute the 'clever people' sold and moved on!
The warnings were there.. |
 HVO have a physical footprint in Europe...Venn.
Negatives -
Drop in 2025 Revenue over 2024.
Much reduced Ebitda in 2025 due to acquisitions.
Mo's halo has slipped somewhat, as up to now he has always delivered.
£25m of near time work still not signed up after all this time.
Hearing of light timetable of trials at Canary Wharf for H1 this year.
Positives -
Acquisition should enhance revs and earnings in future years.
Also allows for cross selling different segments of the business to clients.
2024 has been a super year, so hard to follow anyway.
The phase 3 trial is not in the weighted pipeline figure and when signed would boost H2 2025 and 2026 figures.
Mo has been dealt a poor hand with many clients holding back on HCT studies, this needs to be mitigated and the P3 trail could be the start of this and the acquisition will help in future years after full integration. So he has worked on fixing the poor hand.
HVO still has a decent cash pile and so can look to build the business and investors do not need to fret about continual fundraises (which on AIM is rare). |
Do we know if the Iliad contract is included in 2025E? Acquisition RNS specifically says its not included in the contracted order book
Pretty muted response so far for a 20% cut to EBITDA |
Some pretty poor attempts to downplay this news as expected. |
The doors still haven't been blown off! Decent acquisition but the market doesn't like false promises regarding numbers. Bottom drawer job this one. They've released all their news so I anticipate a quiet few months.Looks like Cathal was right to sell up when he did..... |
No its not Adorling. Once you take out £20m for the new business acquired, the existing business revenues drop to just £53k, significantly below 2024, which is £63k. |
Adorling,You can't just put blinkers on and say la la la.
Friel knew and sold!
How were Octopus so stubid?
Where's Mo's credibility now? |
Growth is growth and £73 million 2025 outlook is a good figure and we have now seen HVO gaining a physical footprint in Europe with the acquisitions. Challenge studies will always be lumpy but when won are becoming more sizeable with added services. Hopefully all the HVO naysayers have sold there shares (despite always posting negative comments on here as they cannot let their baggage go) but will hopefully move on to to more 100-baggers which of course they always seem to pick. |
I was thinking the same thing trout. 2024 performance is great, including cash balance at end-year. But 2025 was clearly looking like it might be weak given the lack of contract announcements and the market sold off on that basis. Now they've effectively confirmed organic guidance for 2025 is down on last year but they've pulled off what looks like a decent acquisition which gives them a good chance to grow strongly from the guidance they've put out today. And the lack of profitability in the acquisition muddies the water in terms of the guidance on the existing business.
There's still the (hoped-for) conversion of the LOI to a contract which will add to the weighted contracted orderbook (as I understand it), although I guess they may have included a view of the revenue in the guidance.
Will it be enough for the market? Hope they've got a strong presentation lined up. |
It was obvious there was an issue with 2025 which is not surprising given uncertainty in US following election/JFK and fact most of HVO clients are US based. New acquisition and synergies widen client base and offer opportunities for more phase 2 trials and Venn consulting. Share price already reflects concerns about 2025. Very happy with that RNS and future prospects |
2?? very exciting updates this morning for #HVO ?Firstly, @hVIVO_UK issued a trading update for FY24 expecting to deliver £62.7m in revenue (an 11.9% increase on the prior year), full year EBITDA margins of c.26% (2023:23.3%), and ended the year with £44.2m cash. These record financials were achieved in a year when the Company completed the move to the world's largest commercial human challenge trial unit, developed a number of new challenge models, launched three new service lines, and implemented a number of new software systems. This is a fabulous performance by their team in the London, Paris, and Breda (Netherlands) offices. Read the full release here: londonstockexchange.com/news-article/H...In the second release hVIVO has now completed the first step in its M&A strategy with the acquisition of two clinical trial units in Germany, a 94-bed unit in Mannheim and a 26-bed unit in Kiel, from CRS. The acquisition will establish a significant European footprint for hVIVO, which combined with CRS' expertise in early clinical development, will create significant synergies and growth opportunities for the entire Group. CRS is a well-respected brand in the industry providing high quality services for early-stage clinical development. They are one of the leading European clinical trial units with a loyal customer base, a strong team, and a history of delivering consistent revenues.Read the full release here: londonstockexchange.com/news-article/H...This is a very exciting development for hVIVO and they believe that this German acquisition is very attractive and should become hugely valuable for the hVIVO Group as they go forward as they deliver on their stategy to optimise, scale and diversfy the business. This brings them one step closer to their £100m revenue target by 2028. |
That is why they were waiting to announce this, the acquisition allows them to fudge 2025 revenues. Now has the previous drop taken this all into account and the acquisition and future figures mean it is taken positively from this base??? |
Interesting- a sceptic would think they've cobbled together acquisitions to mitigate the revenue shortfall (not sure how practical that is in a relatively short space of time)
Cavendish
"hVIVO has announced the €10m cash acquisition of two Clinical Research Units of CRS, an early-phase CRO based in Germany, which will expand the company’s footprint in Europe and is the first step in the company’s M&A strategy of combining acquisitive and organic growth to deliver on its ambition of £100m revenues by 2028. While early phase trials offer typically lower EBITDA margins vs hVIVO’s existing HCT platform, we believe the deal offers pipeline and customer diversification, with business opportunities in indication areas highly complementary to the current operation. Meanwhile, the company’s FY24 trading update sees the group expecting to report record revenues of £62.7m, ahead of our estimate of £62.0m, with EBITDA margin of 26% also ahead of our 24.4% estimate. Year-end cash of £44.2m (our estimate £45.1m) provides balance sheet strength, not only to accommodate the CRS deal but also the longer-term ambitions for organic growth plus M&A. We update our forecasts, noting the combined group will be looking to “mid-high teens” EBITDA and introduce a new target price of 35p (prev. 42p), equivalent to c.15.9x FY25E EV/EBITDA, falling to 11.0x FY26E."
"Updated guidance: Given the enlarged base of the company, management has issued FY25 revenue guidance of £73m with full-year EBITDA margins anticipated to be “mid-high teens” (excluding one- off costs). While this implies that hVIVO has not been immune to the challenges of the wider biopharma spending backdrop in recent months, we believe the long-term opportunity remains compelling. We update forecasts and our new target price – underpinned by DCF – of 35p represents c.15.9x FY25E EV/EBITDA, falling to 11.0x FY26E, which we consider as an excellent entry point for investors and offers compelling value. " |
It's really a bit of a profit warning underlying, Inaminute. If you strip out the new acquisition, the guidance is pretty weak for 2025
£73m of revenues, but with probably £15m of the new acquisition in there, so maybe £58m excluding that, which is down on £62.7m in 2024.
£58m compares to consensus of £68m, so a £10m miss.
If you say a 17% EBITDA margin, then you're talking guidance now of about £12.4m. Even with the acquisition where they'll be excluding integration costs, that's a miss against consensus at £15.9m
A 23% miss on EBITDA. It doesn't really look like this is just the acquisition, the core business guidance is well below what analysts were expecting.
Eric |
Large cut in Cavendish forecasts - prior to today they were forecasting £67.4m rev for FY25 with Adj. EBITDA of £16.1m. After the €10m acquisition they are now forecasting £73.2m rev with £11.7m Adj. EBITDA.
You wouldn't have a clue about the above from reading today's releases...
Price target cut by 7p to 35p. |
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HVO/acquisition-two-clinical-research-units-from-crs/16874136 |
Phase 3 trials
Researchers design Phase 3 studies to demonstrate whether or not a product offers a treatment benefit to a specific population. Sometimes known as pivotal studies, these studies involve 300 to 3,000 participants.
Phase III
Phase III studies are conducted at multiple centers with several hundred to several thousand patients for whom the drug is intended. Massive testing of a drug provides continued generation of data on a drug's safety and efficacy. As in Phase II, most Phase III studies are randomized and blinded.
Phase III trials provide the bulk of information needed for the package insert and labeling of a medicine, after it has been FDA approved.
A drug in this phase can be studied for several years and may be one of 25-30 percent that pass Phases I, II and III. Once a Phase III study is completed, a pharmaceutical company can request FDA approval to market the drug. This is called a New Drug Application (NDA). The NDA contains all the scientific data that the company has gathered throughout the phases in all trials.
Sam |
Some breaking news..........RFK Jnr not anti vaccine? I thought this had halved because of his potential appointment.......interesting times |
PR on Proactive brown-nosers as well as Vox.
Must be a raging buy then. |
Pierre
"If anyone has a more informed view than my informed guess, could they explain further? (Dr Bio?)"
Obviously only an answer from a mate will do.
Why not ask him directly? |
 Chica, thx, but it didn't answer my question which was about the bed situation given often 10k people are needed for phase 3.
I think I've worked it out, but not certain. Anyone know better?
All the beds HVO has will be occupied by volunteers, who will all get a jab infecting them with whooping cough. A few days later the infections will be confirmed and they'll be jabbed with the new treatment drug. They'll all be tested again for whooping cough several times over the next days and weeks. The data collected will be enough to show/not show the efficacy of the candidate drug - how well it works , how long it takes etc etc. All this time will obviously be spent in isolation in hvo's beds.
In parallel, there's a safety phase 3 going on, not managed by hvo, which afaics, needs hundreds of people, similar to traditional phase 3. I think (but not sure) the numbers out in the population may be much less than traditionally (due to hvo's contribution).
If anyone has a more informed view than my informed guess, could they explain further? (Dr Bio?)
The main thing if this is all correct means hvo's beds are occupied 24/7 for 1/2/3 weeks. Maybe for several repetitions. |
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