Pogue,
"'HVO reaffirms its full-year revenue guidance of £62m and expects EBITDA margins to be at the upper end of market expectations. The company is targeting revenue of £100m by 2028"
they said the same £62m revenue target for this year and £100m target for 2028 for almost a year.
Repeating the same thing doesn't change the facts and the red flags I'd been warning about for a year.
Unless you're trying to pull the wool over some gullible PIs eyes.
From Jan TU:
Weighted contracted orderbook of £80 million as at 31 December 2023 (31 December 2022: £76 million)
90% of 2024 revenue guidance already contracted and good visibility into 2025
Revenue guidance of £62 million for 2024
Move to new state-of-the-art facility in Canary Wharf on schedule to complete in H1 2024
Commencement of annual dividend payment in 2024
New medium-term target of growing Group revenue to £100m by 2028 |
G .. " a weighted contracted order book "
Are you sure ? Why would you apply weighting to a contractual position ?
Only if it is not contracted .. surely ? |
So in my interpretation we have:
Unweighted orderbook (Total revenue value of signed contracts with deposits paid);
Weighted orderbook (the above weighted by the risk of cancellation);
Pipeline (non-contracted opportunities in discussion).
HVO chooses to talk mainly about the weighted orderbook, although in recent releases has also brought in the idea of the pipeline as a means (I would argue) of trying to persuade the market that a decline in the weighted orderbook is not something to be overly concerned about. |
And this extract from the interims also supports this interpretation:
"The Company's weighted contracted orderbook stood at £71 million as at 30 June 2024 (H1 2023: £78 million), post-delivery of a record £35.6 million in revenues in H1 2024, with FY 2024 revenue guidance fully contracted and good visibility into 2025. hVIVO has a broad pipeline of live opportunities, including a number in advanced stages, making the Group well-positioned to grow its weighted orderbook going forward. "
i.e. the "broad pipeline of live opportunities, including a number in advanced stages" is not part of the weighted contracted orderbook, but as and when those live opportunities get contracted then they become part of it. |
To me it's the same orderbook being talked about all the way through that extract, ie "weighted orderbook", "this substantial orderbook"and "our orderbook" are all talking about the same thing. |
Beware of the Pogue !!
He's sitting on a thumping loss over last 4 months despite repeatedly being warned about what has now manifested in the share price
If you don't agree with his conspiratorial fantasies you are deemed to be a troll .
Why don't one of you ask the PR company if the weighted order book excludes signed contracts for future work ?
If they say yes you might ask what's happened to the 80m at the start of year ? History has shown it to be a huge error of weighting as they have converted nothing remotely close to that figure !!!
Do you still not get it ?? |
1gw
are you replying to me or a troll?
The orderbook is signed contracts the weighed orderbook is potential contracts weighted by chance of getting a signed contract. Thats what your quote says.
Mo spelt that out what a weighted orderbook was when he created this measure of future orders. |
Here's a longer extract from the Annual Report (page 19). It seems unambiguous to me in terms of what the weighted orderbook consists of, but clearly others see it differently.
"Looking ahead, our weighted orderbook grew to £80 million as at 31 December 2023
(31 December 2022: £76 million)having delivered £56.0 million of revenues in 2023. This substantial orderbook ensured that we entered the year in a very strong position with 90% of 2024 revenue guidance already contracted. It is important to emphasise that our orderbook is comprised of clients who have signed a contractual agreement and paid the up‐front non‐refundable fee." |
The 52 week price range is 18p - 31p. It is surprising that the share price is currently sitting right at the lower end. Opened the year at 24.75p now over 20 percent down in 2024. The share price is currently at the same level as October 2020. I do worry that less than impressive results will end up with HVO dropping lower.Just goes to show that HVO is a traders share not a long term hold of you want to make money. |
The market is giving us true price discovery so it's obvious what the market thinks.. and this pogue clown actually admits that the market knows a lot more than him !
So basically, it would be really stupid to listen to a word he has said.. I hope you haven't learned the hard way.. |
Keep following the BB Napster pogue !! Read his posts for the last 4 months .. chuckle .. |
When is RFK's confirmation hearing?
Hard orders will be thin on the ground until that's completed.
Based on 2024 contract rns's there's no way they can better 2024 revenue in 2025.
Hey even Mo said himself that Hvivo was finding it hard to close deals earlier this month,so basically that's a warning for 2025 with red lights on it. |
 from Burtond1's link
'HVO reaffirms its full-year revenue guidance of £62m and expects EBITDA margins to be at the upper end of market expectations. The company is targeting revenue of £100m by 2028, growth it expect to be underpinned by the increased capacity of its facilities, a strong cash position, and a long-term sustainable growth model....
The company’s pipeline of live opportunities continues to expand including interest in new challenge models and new revenue streams with short to medium term potential opportunities of around £40m. Earlier this month the company announced a £11.5m contract with an existing top-tier global pharmaceutical client to test its antiviral candidate using its RSV Human Challenge Study Model....'
All going to plan unless Mo is lying but he actually tends to under estimate and over achieve. Looking forward to a good New Year and hopefully the expected purchase of another company to boost turnover and profits by offering a larger range of services to clients. |
1gw
without unfiltering BossyBoss and understanding totally what the troll has to say I would like to say the weighted order book has no signed orders in it. A weighting is given to every enquiry about placing a contract. The further down the line they get to signing the higher the weighing that is what the weighted order book is. There are no signed contracts in it.
Edit
to explain it in simpler terms. If contracts that were expected are won the pipeline takes a big hit if a contract that was not expected to be won drops out then the pipeline goes down. At £71 million I suggest there is plenty of opportunites there and small rises and falls are immaterial unless of course you are a troll with nothing to troll about which I assume is what is happening on this board just now. |
GW , from memory the weighted order book was circa 80 m at last years end .
The contracted work was circa 60 m .
If , as you speculate , the 60 m of contracted work does not form part of the 80 m order book .. then the question begs , whats happened to the order book ?? As we have converted hardly any of it into contracts .Do you see my point ? |
10 Stocks to follow for 2025 https://x.com/tmsreach/status/1871447243376713747?s=46&t=z43m4_7LgUJ7F0f0suJ-OQ |
Gw.. There's no difference between a signed order and a contractual agreement.. sorry if that want clear .. I will respond to your other question tomorrow as I am on a different time zone.. |
Bossyboss - what made you change your mind today? Having made that explicit statement in the AR I can't see how they could have changed the definition without explaining it. I'm not sure what you mean by "signed order" as distinct from "signed a contractual agreement and paid the up-front non-refundable fee" though?
In terms of the TU being in late Feb I think it's because they think or hope things will get better before then - and I think that means signing material contracts and/or getting to the point where they can announce an infill acquisition.
The implication, I think, is that they do not yet have the "visibility" they would like (and had at this time last year for 2024 and 2025) on 2025 or 2026 revenue. But that implication is already reflected, at least to some extent, in the decline in the shareprice so it's difficult to handicap whether the market is over-estimating or under-estimating their current 2025 revenue gap. |
It's a shame they have moved the trading update from early Jan to the end of Feb , otherwisw the speculating would soon have ended .
The " buying " of more time just makes people like me more uncomfortable .. I can think of only one obvious reason why they would do this.. can anyone think of another? |
GW.. I used to think that until today !
Are you sure the weighted order book does not include signed orders ?? |
And if you're concerned about the end-year orderbook, have a look at post 9040. If you look at end-2023 order book, 1H'24 announced contracts and 1H'24 revenue, what would you imagine end-1H orderbook might have been? And what was it in fact?
That doesn't mean that we'll see the same thing at end-year, but that 1H experience suggests that the weighted orderbook won't go down anything like what some are suggesting from just assuming that it will be close to end-1H orderbook + new contracts announced less 2H revenue. |
As I understand it, the weighting is applied to contracted orders, not uncontracted orders. i.e. even after a contract is signed and the deposit paid, there is a chance that the booking is cancelled because the client can't get final approvals, or changes their mind about the timing or need for the study.
So the weighted order book is less than the (unweighted) contracted orderbook. There is then another pipeline of uncontracted work, to which weightings could also be applied, but they are not in the headline figure hVivo quotes.
This from the 2023 annual report:
"It is important to emphasise that our orderbook is comprised of clients who have signed a contractual agreement and paid the up‐front non‐refundable fee." |
I'm just thinking about the weighted order book and how it's calculated . I think it's made up of contacts already signed plus a percentage of those they expect to sign .
I wonder what weighting they will now apply to the contracts they have been in the final stages of signing since the summer update .
It's difficult to call the year end order book but it's going to be ugly for sure ...
DYOR |
Depressing end to the year for the share price. |
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