 I think there will be more contracts signed shortly and it isn't as if they will have to raise due to any slack in revenues for next year. This year has been a bumper year as they were able to pull more work through in H1 when they had all the facilities working together. Just like this one, the contracts signed last December and in January this year have revenues to be recognised over more than one year (both of them show revenues into 2025). I just wonder if they sign a couple more contracts soon, that they can recognise a lot of the revenue in 2025, volunteer recruitment is a huge part of the contract and that has to happen before a trial can take place, so don't get too heavily into a trial starting late in the year, a lot of work is done before the trial.
When they mentioned looking for an acquisition, I looked at likely targets and found one in N. Ireland that looked bombed out, however that is now starting a decent re-rate and so not sure it will be a target for HVO now, but happy to have jumped aboard for another CRO's ride.
There seems to be an upturn in CRO business after a lean period (HVO didn't suffer that lean period), some will point to RFK, but miss that a lot of HVO's challenge studies are for anti-virals and with no appetite for vaccine development, then you need something to treat the disease. Secondly these vaccines in development may take several years to get approved anyway so it would be silly for big pharma to stop development because of one politician.
Good News today and expect more of it soon... |
Always worth an acquisition for a new story. Get CF in as a consultant.
If 2025 is flat or less, the p/e will end up at 10 at some point, as its supposed to be a growth stock, unless we enter an unexpected bull market. |
1gw
until he fails you cannot say he is wrong and so far he hasn. He is never uber postive and sets conservative targets so I expect he will hit them again. As for the aquisition he has stated they will buy when they see one they want if it comes it come before Feb it will be a coincidnece I suggest. A purchase is part of the future earnings growth but there is plenty of slack before he has to hit the £100 million t/o before 2028 I dont see how he can rush the purchase if no company is available. |
Bossyboss..what are your revenue targets for 2025?
Are u talking flatish with 2024 or worse?
Lower cash because less deposits from contracts? |
Pogue - Mo's good track record on guidance is what kept the shareprice around 28p-30p for as long as it did imo. But eventually reality has to set in. Note he referred to revenue from the latest contract in late 2025, before correcting himself to 2H. I wonder if he'll try to get an infill acquisition across the line before the Feb update to try to mitigate poor 2025 revenue guidance. |
I'd also worry about the size of the contract £11.5.Was it supposed to be £20 million but they had to lower the price to close the deal |
Seen @hVIVO_UK RNS ??#HVO Signed £11.5m contract with an existing global client ????Revenue to be recognised across 2025 and 2026. Also reaffirms FY24 revenue guidance with EBITDA margins anticipated to be a the upper end of expectations ?https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HVO/ps11-5m-rsv-contract-and-notice-of-trading-update/16803215 |
1gw
has Mo missed a target yet? He stated the pipeline is at its largest it has been. Will find out in Feb what the target is for next year but I think he will continue the upward trend he does tend to be cautious in what he says. He has however never over estimated and has never been wrong not many AIM CEOs you can say that for. |
Absolutely..notice he didn't say with good visibility into 2025 as he normally does.
Some people are going to get burned 🔥 today. |
Well as it is 2/3rds of that, then it has probably been priced in and more, so enjoy the ride up from the over-reaction |
1GW
I agree .. he's going to have to warm on 2025 ... the market has already priced it in as it's been obvious for months .
If the market believed the 2025 forecasts the share price would be well into the 30s.. |
If you listen to the Vox interview Mo acknowledges some difficulty getting clients to sign on the bottom line. So I think he's signalling some softness in 2025 numbers (hardly surprising given the huge gap since the last big contract announcement). But he's trying to convince us that the £100m target is still within reach. |
If you tell me which bit you don't agree with I will clarify ..
I do my homework and I'm usually spot on !
I suspect the market will agree and take the share price lower although there might be a short term rally .. very short term .
But that not withstanding I do wish you all luck.. it's been ugly recently.. |
If you tell me which bit you don't agree with I will clarify ..
I do my homework and I'm usually spot on ! |
A contract is a contract but its not £20 million which was indicated. |
Reaffirm they will hit targets. I expect a load of filtered posts today from the usual halfwits posting nonsense trying to talk down the company's prospects.
This company does exactly what it says it will makes money, pays dividends one day it will be bought out. Just got to ignore the trolls take the divis and wait for that day. |
I bought another 50k yesterday having looked back and seen how they tend to announce contracts at the end of the year, early Jan.
Didn’t expect one the next day, but do expect some more contract news over the next 30 days. |
Don't agree bossyboss. |
Too little too late .
Cash at year end 2024 will be down to 27 m and the outlook for 2025 is poor .
The trading update for 2025 should be in early January and he has bounced it back till the end of February for obvious reasons.
Anybody buying the stock at this price is as daft as Octopus . |
Repeat £11.5m contract.
Working with 4 out of 10 of top global pharmaceutical companies.
Reiterate 2024 revenue expectations with ebitda at top of expectations range.
Signalling trading update and 2025 indications around end February.
Anyone else's nerves also smoothed?
Good time to get back in, m5? :-) |
150m mcap , I think it's too high against revenue |
Well it's one big one at last. Have to hope this is the beginning if a new wave of contract announcements. |
Burn shorters!!!! Burn |
sikhthetech8 Dec '24 - 20:20 - 8855 of 8857
You are a strange one. I sold when I sold, one day after CF sold some of his holding. My decision FA to do with you. Jog on please. |
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