Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rayrac] 29/12/2016 10:34

Quiet on the western front?

[csjcsl2] 28/12/2016 16:21

hiddendepths..no bidding war next year, eps first, if goes well then we could see a bid come in, so another couple of years yet,i would think

[hiddendepths] 28/12/2016 15:35

IMO there could well be a bidding war for Hurricane next year. The most recent wells have been so much sit up and take note that even sceptics in the larger companies should have been won over to the merits of these assets.

I maintain, as I've said consistently since the initial flotation, and through the dark days of 10p, that my estimate for the eventual recoverable reserves is at least two billion barrels. As the evidence gathers, this is looking less and less speculative. I was won over by the good Doctor Trice early on and believed in his vision, which also hasn't flickered. I learned early in my career as an oil analyst that the best gains of all in exploration tend to come from backing the man rather than the numbers. FWIW I got Warburgs, my employer of the time, to back Aidan Heavey when Tullow was 10p and short of cash. Mind you, that was a very long time ago.......

Anyway, in my case, I put my money where my mouth is early on, and subsequently, and have a few hundred thousand of these, making it by a country mile my biggest holding.

[gregpeck7] 28/12/2016 15:25

Ps 51p close I think chaps!

[gregpeck7] 28/12/2016 15:25

The soco comparison to name just one today only... What makes hur so exceptionally attractive in addition to all of the other elements is obviously the location of the oil and in the current world I would say there are few better spots to be drilling when weighing up all risks.. the greatest possibly being geo politics...

[pcok] 28/12/2016 15:25

Back to business after a great few days....Anyone know if the weather has permitted the move to Halifax to begin?

[greyingsurfer] 28/12/2016 15:19

Anyone who thinks this company is not having the line run over it at the moment is in cloud cuckoo land..

Has anyone suggested otherwise?

[gregpeck7] 28/12/2016 15:17

Thanks laserdisc.. my view on Lincoln was that it was to be a quick (relatively low risk) poke.. Halifax will be drilled, logged and tested....Hence if and I say 'if' it comes in we will be looking at stupid valuations...Anyone who thinks this company is not having the line run over it at the moment is in cloud cuckoo land..Gp.

[gary38] 28/12/2016 15:15

Investors are looking for investments and will find it hard to do better than Hurricane energy .

[gary38] 28/12/2016 15:12

Totally agree David.

[extrader] 28/12/2016 14:51

Hi carcosa,

Re HUR and possible 'rhyming' with Soco.....totally agree.

The extra twist this time is POO, I think, not only because NS presupposes higher investment costs than VN but also because POO is not as 'obvious' a one-way bet as everyone (including the experts/majors) seemed to think back then....

ATB

[davidblack] 28/12/2016 14:37

The other interesting thing about today is that in "City" terms this is normally a very slow day, often a very very slow day.

So how come at 2.30pm HUR have traded 2.5m at 50p.

£1.25m of turnover suggests there are hungry buyers out there, plus a few willing sellers to be fair.

Interesting times?

[davidblack] 28/12/2016 14:33

I think that what Trice said when the stock was 15p and what he might be saying today at 50p may be markedly different.

Once this stock gets to north of £1 that "What is corporately possible" will change once again.

Our best protection against BP or Shell is that by the time they decide to act the landscape is highly likely to be very different.

Majors are very slow unless they are chasing semi majors like BG.

DB

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 14:33

Peter,I stated a few days ago, if 150p was put on the table tomorrow and we had no further activity planned nearterm, I'll take it. It's good value and a decent premium for our commanding assetbase in this play. The scale is huge.Problem is - we have Halifax spudding shortly. Given our current all round strong position in terms of resources and internal reserve case, management enhancing our assetbase and value, Halifax may add substantially to that figure. As I said, I've taken a leap of faith in HUR management team and consider a couple of months easily acceptable to see the outcome of Halifax before a make any further decisions. I guess until then, an offer above the current shareprice, whether it's 70, 80, 90p cannot be described as derisory. Markets do generally get it right, but I am of the opinion they don't understand this play well enough yet.Cash

[extrader] 28/12/2016 13:59

Hi cash,

The CPR will make things clearly. (sic)

I - like you - hope so. But the CPR is likely to be conservative, too, if it is to have any credibility.

Do we know yet who'll be doing it ? If it's RPS again, it'll be interesting to see how much their position has changed since Q4 2013.

Gettng the reserves auditors to any large proven number in an unconventional play will surely need proof via field production, not just a well test ?

Whoever its that does the CPR, it would at least be helpful to include a "chance of development" rating to some of the contingent resources.

If Trice is primarily ( personally and professionally) interested in the 'journey' and his financial backers are interested in (monetary) 'arrival', I'd see it as likely that we face early and 'disappointing to some' take-out in H1 2017, with the money-seekers moving on to their next target and Trice heading up Son of Hur (Ben ?).

A bird in the hand, etc.

ATB

[greyingsurfer] 28/12/2016 13:48

I have to disagree, the internal case for Lancaster and Lincoln as they stand now (almost 600mln barrels management case) is undervalued.

You think it's undervalued, I think it might well prove to be the case after the EPS, which is presumably why we are invested. The market clearly doesn't agree with either view.

In that context you cannot describe an offer of 110% above the current as "derisory". You would presumably refuse. I might, but at the end of the day what we do has no impact on whether such an offer would be accepted.

Peter

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 13:39

Peter,I have to disagree, the internal case for Lancaster and Lincoln as they stand now (almost 600mln barrels management case) is undervalued. I've taken a leap of faith, and am sticking to managements numbers as I consider them to be conservative, that could well be an understatement. The CPR will make things clearly.The figure you're quoting is almost the same as Edison's renav issued after Lincoln results.Cash

[laserdisc] 28/12/2016 13:35

market still not reflected correct valuation for Lincoln result we should be at least 55p today, one good thing it appears our seller is not loading the offer

[greyingsurfer] 28/12/2016 13:26

Btw, that's a derisory offer given what we know.

Given that the market knows what we know and currently values HUR at 50p a 105p offer cannot be described as derisory.

Whether it would succeed would depend on what majority shareholders think - the view on ADVFN would be irrelevant to the outcome.

Peter

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 13:23

Both are clearly important reasons. The uptake of 55mln bbls of EPS production tied to the fact BP have been in this WoS play for a longtime. There public statements, capital investment in the area and forward commitments as operator are huge. Let's not forget, BP have just upped their stakes along the Rona-Ridge with the farmin to Nexens Craster license, immediately northeast of Hurricanes Halifax license.I would suggest any of the other Clair partners, (Shell Chevron Conoco) would fit the bill and we would do well to get a tier 1 partner of that size.Cash

[laserdisc] 28/12/2016 13:22

gregpeck 7 I would think your thoughts are correct re Halifax test

[gregpeck7] 28/12/2016 13:19

Bp have publicly stated they in the market again for assets, shell are still swallowing bg..