Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 31/5/2021 11:04

Linz I sympathise with the sentiments in your post but I reach a different conclusion. I don't think Trice et al set out to lie and defraud. I think they genuinely believed in the FB thesis. But they did what people often do: they were so convinced they were right that they ignored or rationalised away data which emerged that implied they had been wrong or they clung to the notion of a reprieve.

[linz22] 31/5/2021 10:22

Fair enough, T. But, I'll end for the time being by further asking this:

You know you've been misinformed by the company. By definition, we've ALL been lied to by HUR as their (published) data, estimations and forecasts, have been contradictory to the point of deceptive.

Given that reality, and knowing you've been willfully misled, why are you so absolutely dismissive of everything that was said and done previously, under the stewardship of Dr.Trice, and yet so readilly receptive to everything the current board is claiming - no matter how unlikely that may seem to some of us?

D'you think it'll be different this time? You think this time they just happen to be telling the truth about everything..?? Why so secret about the 'ad hoc team'..?

But, as with all things, the truth will come out in the end. That is to say, once the goal has been acheived.


Edit: I don't believe a word of what the new BoD tell us. I've put forward my definitive reasons, from a position of experience, as to why. And, like CA. I'm calling their bluff.

It's noticable, and irksome, to those like myself that those of a contrary position on the subject do not put forward evidential reasons for their faith in the veracity of the current BoD, beyond simple dismission:. 'conspiracy theory, tinfoil-hat, "loser", "delusional", sorry, mate, "can't really follow your drift", that sort of thing.

Edit 2: any thoughts at all on the 'perched water' signature..? Anybody?

[tournesol] 31/5/2021 10:01

Linz

I can't really follow your drift I'm afraid.

The situation as I see it is that either

1) the original analysis of the FB and of early producing performance and water cut were all dodgy and the truth took time to emerge. Everybody involved screwed up. The sceptics in the major oil cos were right all along.

or

2) The original assessment of the FB and the perched water were correct but a massive conspiracy has been organised. Influential investors, directors, technical advisors and experts have been corrupted and recruited to support this conspiracy. Spirit and the OGA authority have knowingly participated.

Now applying Occam's razor, which is more likely?

[loglorry1] 31/5/2021 09:59

I don't think CA expected or knew about the default when they bought more. Maybe they thought a coupon bump, and amortization schedule would buy them the maturity extension to unlock value.

[tournesol] 31/5/2021 09:55

Jam2day

3 posts in 8 mins on a bank holiday!!!

I'm on my phone and after a few sentences I can no longer see what I'm typing as it scrolls off the bottom of the screen. It's easier to compose a few short messages rather than a single long one.

Any position?

Yes. Flat on my back. I'm actually in bed - laid up with an injury to the ligaments in my foot so more or less immobile and getting very bored. I do hope you find that acceptable.

[nigwit] 31/5/2021 09:52

No, not everyone.

[loglorry1] 31/5/2021 09:45

Thanks D1NGA so winter surely a problem as can't pay for AM to sit there at 75k/day waiting for weather to improve for pump fix.

Winters are brutal WoS.

Senseman I've checked my bank account for payments from HUR due for bashing on advfn. They have stiffed me. I'm livid.

[nigwit] 31/5/2021 09:35

"Exactly, Senseman.!
Plus, the curious appearance of certain posters to these boards, who are declared non-holders but continue to post relentlessly in favour of the (evidently corrupt) new BoD's 'plan', even over the whole bank-holiday weekend..! But, whatever, it takes all sorts, and it's a free country, (still.., just about)."


Yes of course because the BoD is in league with the CPR writers, accountants and brokers and all companies pay people secretly to tell others not to buy their shares! What else could it be? Certainly not concern for those who might get sucked in by idiots.

You are completely detached from reality.

Oh well! I suppose you can't stop losers behaving like losers.

[d1nga] 31/5/2021 09:34

Not over a year or two, but its already been in service a while, stats show onky 2% chance of esp still being serviceable after 10 years.

Hth.

a rig would need mobilised to change out a pump if failure should occur, if in winter weather would be an issue.

Summer 3 weeks maybe all in, if a rig was available

Too many ifs and buts
Too risky to invest in

[loglorry1] 31/5/2021 09:20

Is the risk of failure in one ESP that high over a year or two? How much would it cost to replace? Post restructuring I see bondholders sanctioning modest spend if required.

In essence here the balance sheet is such that CBs will not allow any significant spend that might risk their cash returns for equity upside as they have none. Post restructuring that all changes. It's a fascinating situation.

[d1nga] 31/5/2021 09:16

Which ever way it goes, everyone is still relying on one well and one esp.

Too much can go wrong and it will at some stage

Too risky and uninvestible

[loglorry1] 31/5/2021 09:01

My position is that restructured equity has potential value. Without restructuring it does not as the bonds have the legal ability to claim all the assets of the company.

The potential value is largely unlocked by the reduction of debt by $50m and the extension of maturity.

Its only potential value. It may well be the case that cash flows end up being the same with or without restructuring.

The CBs require and in my view are entitles to 95% because if $1 of cash over the $230m-50m comes to fruition it's rightfully theirs up to $230m. You might argue equity is due any value over $230m. I'd agree had they avoided a default but they have not.

The current value before restructuring is the tiny option value that equity avoids massive dilution AND the field produces excess value above it's liabilities. That's quite different and in my view very close to zero.

[ppceh] 31/5/2021 08:52

Log

You say equity has value. What value is this? If no side track well is drilled to extend field life then HUR is wound up when the AM lease expires. The No Further Action option even factors in this wind up cost.

[loglorry1] 31/5/2021 08:44

Ghh as I said above a restructured equity has value. That's why CBs have value above their expected cash backing by July 2022 which is itself not inconsiderable but still less than par. I don't think 57c is that unreasonable.

[loglorry1] 31/5/2021 08:38

Why do bondholders want 95% worthless equity?

I think the judge was posing the question but knew the answer. The answer is clear. 95% of the equity post restructuring is NOT worthless. The process of restructuring, extends maturity, reduces debt by $50m, and heals the default. The end result is some value in the equity.

On the subject why bid for CBs at 57c in size? Depends what you call size. It's a $230m issue so there's going to be decent liquidity. Also if institutions can borrow and are/were convinced the plan would/will complete it's a decent risk arb to shot equity against CBs especially when CBs are mostly cash backed.

As for CA they must have seen a way to unlock value. You say they must have read and understood the CPR RNS and I agree. However didn't they recently issue a statement disputing it and saying they thought there was equity value. Maybe they are simply just believers and also think they can defeat the Plan and take control. It's a very risky strategy when the geology isn't playing ball and the bonds are in default.

Did CA know the bonds were in default when they bought more? That's key because from a legal perspective it opens up more options for CBs.

[ghhghh] 31/5/2021 08:37

tournesol

Any idea why there is ongoing buying in the CBs at 57 cents? There may be a good chance that buyers get their money back at this price and probably a reasonable chance they may make a 50% profit. But also significant risks such as water cut, pump failure and AM extension issues. Their profit/loss hinges on no production issues pre AM contract expiry.

This is not a great risk:reward and it's messy and protracted.

However there were multiple buyers on the day Restructuring announced and I am regularly bid for more.

It only makes sense if there is significant residual value so that their 95% of equity is not worthless? ie HUR adopt NFA but then pull a magic rabbit out of the hat.

[jam2day] 31/5/2021 08:36

3 posts in 8 mins on a bank holiday!!!Any position?

[tournesol] 31/5/2021 08:10

Hur is a classic example of the Emperor’s New Clothes syndrome. If you were taken in at the beginning of the tale that’s understandable. His garments were verified by reputable experts. . But the emperor now stands naked before us. We can see him in all his shrunken and unadorned reality. If you are still a believer you are either blind or you’re refusing to look. If you think it’s a conspiracy then you’re just delusional I'm afraid.

[tournesol] 31/5/2021 08:04

Whereas you continued to believe in a fantasy (and seem to still believe in it) long after the sad truth emerged blinking into the cold light of day. It's not the fault of the people you criticise that you are so gullible you prefer complex conspiracy theories to the simple truth.

[tournesol] 31/5/2021 08:01

LinzYou are criticising the messengers because you can't cope with their message. Perhaps more to the point you can't cope with the fact that some of the people you describe as suspiciously and relentlessly negative - impugning their integrity and motivation - saw through the smokescreen of optimistic misinformation a long time ago.

[nigwit] 31/5/2021 06:33

That’s denial.

The basic question is what will the shares be worth after the inevitable restructuring?

The market normally discounts the foreseeable future so perhaps little different from now.