Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[laserdisc] 24/5/2021 07:23

Altera wind TANKER left catcher Last week, went to mcduff ,now on its way to Lancaster arrival expected this morning

[zodiac266] 23/5/2021 23:03

Even a dead cat .........

[jacks13] 23/5/2021 14:35

Speaking of independence, Roy Kelly, the Kerogen ned, was previously managing director of consulting at RPS Energy.

[nigwit] 23/5/2021 14:30

tournesol is right

3 years ago the boards were alight with stories of multiple elephant-sized oil fields and constant reports of every minute movement of the ship. Since then there has been a constant stream of bad news. Each individual bad news story has been believed by the wider market and the share price has dropped accordingly but BB readers have denied them all, making up excuses and increasingly far-fetched counter-stories rather than let the dream of instant riches go.

Compare the picture three years ago with now - it's in shreds with no obvious way back.

Go and read a little about confirmation bias and ask yourselves if it applies to you.

Try to see the whole, nuanced position.

Consider if CA are in better or worse shape and what they want, it may just be to cut their losses. After all a few hundred thousand in legal bills is nothing to them and they can justify the fees even if they're all they get back from this shambles.

[kooba] 23/5/2021 14:22

There was a fascinating submission by a shareholder at the first high court hearing who was retired oil industry who commented on the water cut that he saw no issue with current levels and that many production operations operate at far higher water cut.Pointed to some Saudi fields operating at 85% and still producing well. Afraid no expert on this and have not corroborated his facts ..but I would be interested in CA experts who are proposed for the Hurricane board detailing their thoughts should they get on board. They have obviously followed the situation for a few years and know it well and it would be fascinating to see their views tested through CPR revision, I believe a CPR can be done internally with the right expertise and i question the independence of the last ones produced. It seems in reality it's a rubber stamping of executive views anyway and the result likely depends on what the board want to portray.

[tournesol] 23/5/2021 13:59

Bearnecessities

"..…HUR will likely soon have fresh active competent board/executive team in place, followed by long missing forward plan, cost management initiatives, institutional fundraising efforts utilising today’s ultra low interest rate environment, long missing shareholder engagement, new CPR and possibly subsequent re-found of mysteriously vanished WoS HUR reserves, increasing cashflow, higher Oil prices, utilisation of huge company tax credits ahead, farmout potential, upticks in regional M&A and JV activities…230;"

You are utterly delusional. The current board/executive have done their best to sort out the shambles created by their pre-decessors but they simply have had no room to manoeuvre and no resources to deploy. The difficulties arose because the geology turned out to be different from what the team led by Trice expected. That cut the co off at the knees. Hur's reserves and resources did not mysteriously vanish. They were never there in the first place. The OWC is much higher than Trice reckoned, the incidence of fractures is much less than he reckoned and the few fractures that have been found are much less productive than he predicted. He simply got it wrong, wrong and wrong again. Consequently there seems to be little or no value in Hur's acreage. That being so, there is no prospect of new investment and no possibility of farm-outs.

Wake up and smell the coffee, it's been brewing for 18 months. This is not a sudden deluge of bad news, it is simply the unwelcome arrival of reality after a long period when co and shareholders have been provided with a constant stream of negative info which they have simply refused to absorb. The BoD has belatedly recognised that they can't go on denying the blindingly obvious. Some shareholders seem unable or unwilling to accept the unavoidable truth.

[laserdisc] 23/5/2021 13:44

Tournesol i am just picking up what hur said in the interims and rns sept20 they also told us that they were working viable development plan for the Lincoln field.
then 18th dec
we continue to believe there is significant value in Lancaster and our broader West of Shetland portfolio

[tournesol] 23/5/2021 13:37

Laser

"...Hurricane’s asset base
remains significant in a wider UKCS context….

Wrong.

... and the Company has a valuable base of installed infrastructure…;

And wrong again.

You're in denial.

[thecomposer] 23/5/2021 13:33

One of the main issues here, which some of us (including myself) were not aware of until very recently was that once HUR BoD had cooked this proposed "Scam" in cohorts with the unknown (to us) ad hoc bondholders (likely around last August when the new CEO was also brought in to purely implement same), then this unbelievably incompetent untrustworthy BoD sparked on a non stop continuous negative campaign to blatantly destroy shareholder value here and thereby, artificially drive the HUR share price to unrealistically low levels in order to be able to sell this seemingly ludicrous proposed "Scam", I for one, although started to notice that our BoD/Executive Team are doing/planning absolutely nothing here but even in my wildest dreams, did not expect them to be this disastrous in every possible sense, so once they are GONE, I believe a new very much more positive and fair chapter will commence here for the purposefully underappreciated HUR with CA and all stakeholders support.

[nigwit] 23/5/2021 13:25

You take care kooba. A lot of people have been badly burned by considering only one side of the issues with this company.

I got out long ago and I won't invest again because the trend is beyond awful and, in my opinion, it might well continue that way.

Unless you fancy a short term gamble with pocket money you can afford it doesn't look the wisest.

[kooba] 23/5/2021 12:38

Hey NigWit i agree with you !The cram down provisions in CIGA 2020 are up for testing and developing in real world cases so there is a wider High Court angle in setting precedent here.The cram down provisions are usually seen in use where there are different classes of creditor but here likely to be tested on one class of creditor against shareholders.

[nigwit] 23/5/2021 12:08

I don't think you can make any assumptions about what the judge wants. He may be setting up one side or the other or simply applying the law and setting a precedent that the emergency legislation should not be used in the way attempted by Hurricane.

In my experience High Court judges are mostly interested in developing the law for the future and not especially worried about how that may effect the parties who are before them at the time.

[loglorry1] 23/5/2021 11:09

Clearly since the judge wants a vote CBs might need to give a bit more. I expect most bulls here will be outraged with giving up 85%. They all seem to expect bondholders to just STFU and give up all their rights.

[kooba] 23/5/2021 10:48

I believe the return the bondholders are envisaging with the restructuring is 66.6%..If there was a credible plan that show them getting 70% back would they look at it ?

[loglorry1] 23/5/2021 10:31

Kooba allowing company to continue to 2024 comes at a cost. If they could find this cheaper elsewhere they were/are free to do so.

Ghh equity siding with CA may be better but could be a tiny bit worse. Obviously most PIs would take a lottery ticket type of hope of getting their money back over getting the cost of a lottery ticket back. Doesn't make that decision rational.

[loglorry1] 23/5/2021 10:26

"CBs are not taking equity type risk."

How can you say this when they are converting $50m of debt to equity and risking further maturity extension on the remaining pump?

They can take equity risk without putting in more cash and risking that cash on more drilling. That's pretty obvious to me.

[kooba] 23/5/2021 10:24

The restructuring is proposed as a material reduction in debt..it is nothing of the sort in reality.

[kooba] 23/5/2021 10:22

If restructuring goes through debt falls from $230m to $180m initially ...but then there is a 5% PIK which rolls up accumulatively at 5% per annum this means by time you get to 2024 it will be well over $200m again..my rough working is $215m (though there are proposed sweep events)..so company still has about same outstanding. Also the hike in interest means that the interest charged on the reduced amount is basically the same as the larger amount...both about $17m per annum.

[loglorry1] 23/5/2021 10:19

Sorry $230. I'll edit. Needed coffee.

[kooba] 23/5/2021 10:16

Where's $320m coming from exactly?

[loglorry1] 23/5/2021 09:31

Ghh this is what you are missing I think.

Each day that passes the pump may fail and CBs wi get c$120m which lets say is free cash now.

Each day that passes oil could go to $150m or some other event making the CBs worth $230 + $100m of equity value.


Both events unlikely but possible.

After the D4E CBs get $230m+95%*$100m $325m case 2 and $120m case 1. Equity gets $5m or zero.

Without the D4E they get $230m or $120m. Equity gets $100m or zero.

Clearly CBs been compensated very slightly for healing the default and allowing the company to continue and that compensation is very unlikely equity upside. This very unlikely upside is expensive to equity $95m but clearly that's all they have to give.

They aren't just doing what they would anyway. You say they have to because the only other alternative is worse for them. I don't think so. I think they can take 100% control and run it down in the NFA option anyway.

[evilblues] 23/5/2021 09:19

Might be worth finding out roughly what share price would level out CA's investment here as that will be their target, some how some way. According to some Haven't they be averaging down all year?

[loglorry1] 23/5/2021 09:02

Ghh why should CBs take any equity type risk and not get any equity upside for doing it? By healing the balance sheet and extending maturity they must be compensated/incentivised. To say they are giving up nothing they wouldn't already be doing is just plain wrong. $50m, covenants and extended maturity risk are all being given up. That effectively gives equity a fighting chance and the price they've put on that is 95% of the company. Equity wants that for free. What's the level?

You don't expect Bluewater to waive opex on AM for no equity share but you except CBs to give up $50m etc. for nothing. You can't continue without the AM if you couldn't pay for it and you can't continue without the grace of CBs (as in default) so why not pay for that?

Perhaps with an equity share CBs might be prepared to invest more to enable a better recovery than their projected 57c on the dollar.

[loglorry1] 23/5/2021 08:49

Out of interest would equity holders here be happy to allow the D4E as is on the condition that they get their 95% back IF free cash exceeds $320m by July 2022 enabling full repayment of bonds?

If happy with 95% back how about 40% back?