Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 19/2/2020 05:21

Seems like the morphines working.

[tournesol] 19/2/2020 01:54

In my defence, I had surgery on Tuesday and spent most of the day unconscious,asleep or completely out of it. I'm awake now and dosed up with all kinds of things that are proving quite stimulating. Thought I'd indulge in some creative writing.

No offence intended to NGMS, or Robert Trice or even President Macron for that matter. Russia and the SNP can look after themselves.

[hello31] 19/2/2020 00:54

TGG, my goodnesses you are right and my apologies Sir.

So over to you Chessman
-can you please inform us on what grounds that OGA and Spirit would want to see for "sure" a proven commercial flowing L&C well be plugged and abandoned?

Like you I also hope Lancaster 8 will be a success.

Than you

[thegreatgeraldo] 19/2/2020 00:41

hello31
18 Feb '20 - 23:36 - 11232 of 11232
0 0 0
TGG, you clearly state - question mark or not that

"I am sure LC WILL be p & a...."

..Nope...have another look, somebody else posted that....

Regarding having "rose tinted on"

..Yup, you've got your rose tinted on.

[hello31] 18/2/2020 23:36

TGG, you clearly state - question mark or not that

"I am sure LC WILL be p & a...."

Regarding having "rose tinted on" -can you tell me on what grounds that OGA and Spirit would want to see for "sure" a proven commercial flowing L&C well be plugged and abandoned?

Thanks

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 23:15

amaretto, any evidence that things are not going to plan in this evaluation stage..not according to Dr T- or do you disagree?

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/2/2020 23:14

ello31
18 Feb '20 - 23:08 - 11228 of 11229
0 0 1

My post was in response to TGG saying
"Cheers steelwatch - obvious reason would be for the rig to P&A the well?"

"P&A the (LC) well" is NOT NOT NOT an "obvious reason" for what Steelwatch highlighted.

The operators have to go through the process until the decision is formally made by the OGA to defer and if anything it is likely that we will have an RNS on the decision before the CMD so that shorts and trolls will have to cover their position well before than.

....There's a chance you're right..... you'll notice I was asking the question... Still, you have the rose tinted on.

[amaretto1] 18/2/2020 23:11

I've every respect for Dr T .. He's world classBut he cannot anticipate or forsee a snakes and ladder type field.

[hello31] 18/2/2020 23:08

Chesman

" hello31, I get the feeling you are back peddling.

I hope I'm wrong "

You are definitely Wrong Sir - not back paddling at all. As I said and repeated that I have made the case that why would OGA want to abandon and why would Spirit not take a forward the LC well which flowed at" commercial rates."

All those who say it is abandoned cannot answer these questions - why should the LC be abandoned by OGA and why would Spirit not develop a well flowing at commercial rates.

They would not and it is a deferment at best of 12 months.

My post was in response to TGG saying
"Cheers steelwatch - obvious reason would be for the rig to P&A the well?"

"P&A the (LC) well" is NOT NOT NOT an "obvious reason" for what Steelwatch highlighted.

You state that " I am sure LC WILL be p & a as the OGA have already made their decision." Please tell us on what grounds would anyone want see L&C be plugged and abandoned?

The operators have to go through the process until the decision is formally made by the OGA to defer and if anything it is likely that we will have an RNS on the decision before the CMD so that shorts and trolls will have to cover their position well before than.

Thanks

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 22:48

amaretto...well lets wait and see shall we...unless you know something...then please share...I think CA may have been selling to finance their share buyback...CA is in big trouble! Time is getting on, another offload is imminent as is CMD...do you think its time to close your short as some other hedggies have done. But you are of the opinion that Dr T is a charlatan...I take the view that reputational capital is more important than money to him, hence I do not think he would lie (thus I think it was spirit that want to delay Lincoln tie-back- not surprising since they are up for sale)

[amaretto1] 18/2/2020 22:45

SP is down here for this reasonThe market is NOT convinced Hence 15p

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 22:38

Does Trump want a higher oil prices as US starts to export oil to keep pumping up the US economy as the presidential elections start...also helps Saudi who need over USD90 poo to balance their budget...to date Russia has been resisting Opec (Saudi) demands...crazy world

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 22:22

Hur have stated the Capex costs in their 2019 presentation, if the costs are lower then even better!

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/2/2020 22:19

mhin2
18 Feb '20 - 21:53 - 11220 of 11221
0 0 1
no, obviously, but the capex includes the cost of lease

....No......by paying for the upgrade of the FPSO, obv the lease cost is greatly reduced

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 22:19

amareto...enjoy your drink...water/oil remain the strategic resources :)

[amaretto1] 18/2/2020 22:16

It's called water !

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 21:53

no, obviously, but the capex includes the cost of lease...The tieback of Lincoln was a bit disappointing because it would have allowed greater economies of scale, but Spirit delay accelerates lancaster exploration- all good in my opinion...Then again I have a 5-6 year horizon. Before people start talking about oil will be displaced...I am afraid I do not envisage such a scenario....but I do welcome oil and coal substitutes.

I the meantime there is not a cats chance in hell that poo (brent) is going to USD40...it may hit USD 50, but if/when coronavirus abates I see poo back up to USD65+. I also envisage peak shale in that time, and greater turbulence in the middle east...whilst Lancaster/Halifax are much further down the line....hey thats my long term thinking...

ohh just caught this "Venezuela crisis: US blacklists Russian oil firm for helping Maduro"....Rosneft ! Trump is just fantastic for oil!

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/2/2020 21:51

HUR don't own the FPSO

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 21:24

hence the capex figure...no?...brent back over 58...my calcs based on USD50...even on 30 capex thats 15k at USD20- thats USD109.2m cash flow

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/2/2020 21:19

Yes......the boat is a big fixed cost, no?

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 21:18

I am assuming 17,000-20,000 bopd min...I thought all the figures inc. opex were in the public domain...hence the USD20-25 cost of production.

hxxps://www.hurricaneenergy.com/application/files/1115/6355/5427/20190718_-_Hurricane_Corporate_Presentation_-_3Q_2019.pdf

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/2/2020 21:11

A big slab of opex is fixed...regardless of the level of production......so as production rises, so netback per bbl rises..... & vicky versa

[mhin2] 18/2/2020 20:19

has anybody got any facts other than:

At US50poo Hur make USD25 per barrel (ie cost at USD25per Barrel)

even if they produce even 15,000 bopd they generate USD136.5m free revenue p.a.
at 20,000 USD182m

at 55poo/ 15K bopd usd163.8m, 20K bopd USD218.4m

oh Brent has just gone over USD58

seems to me Hur have done all the hard work, now is the phase where consolidation and further exploration and production starts. I really cannot understand why Hur is at these prices after all they have achieved over the last 12 months. Most has been delivered, and Warwick/Lincoln were, I assume, carried accelerated development. But to play safe lets just take warwick and Lincoln out of the equation.

Of course there is the issue of contracted rights etc...now given what appears to be Spirits reduced momentum its time to bash on with the `Jewel in the crown'.

Those that think there is a problem with the fundamentals please enlighten...because at these levels I continue to accumulate....added some more today.

[arregius] 18/2/2020 18:16

Where did you see that?