Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 30/11/2017 12:16

Yep that would work!

Something seems to have changed this morning, the sentiment and buying feel positive.

[ghhghh] 30/11/2017 12:11

Davidblack

I should have been clearer.

A Phase 2 farm out would be cheap. Say drill 4 appraisal wells for $120m. HUR give away 25%?

Good deal for a farm in partner since excellent chance of getting 25% of something massive and only risking $120m.

Obviously HUR keep 100% Phase 1 but get their 75% fast tracked, which is still a lot of shareholder value.

[badger60] 30/11/2017 12:08

Yep....... hopefully the true enterprise value will now start to be reflected in the share price

[laserdisc] 30/11/2017 12:06

1M trade just gone through & pbj rig starting to move back to shore , perhaps tonight

[rayrac] 30/11/2017 12:05

Got back in this am, time I think!

[fardistanthills] 30/11/2017 12:00

taudelta. Exactly, anyone investing or already invested here should be here with that sort of timeframe in mind.

[taudelta1] 30/11/2017 11:45

I'm going to dig out a large parsnip from my veg patch ... most of the year it looked as though it was dead .. but seriously haven't we all known that it will take to 2020 (maybe late 2019) to prove up Lancaster?

[anley1] 30/11/2017 11:41

Cutting through all this interesting gossip just makes me buy a few every week, which I have been doing for the past 30 or so days.

I have been through most of the published news as well as asking former BP executives and it all boils down to a cheap share at anything under 27.5p.

Who the sellers are is not of concern as there have been no news on that front and if CA wants to call an EGM he has sufficient shares/votes to do so.........but what does he want and how will he get what he wants without disclosing his hand?

The long and the short is that there are sufficient big shareholders to move this company in to the hands of a much bigger oil/gas company and after the next round of works have been completed then that is when T/O share activity will arise.

In the meantime keep buying on dips............

[davidblack] 30/11/2017 11:41

Why farm out now?that would have been a reasonable option before the dilution but we have now paid for the FPSO. Once that is in place any farm out would be on much better terms than one today. Why would we volunteer to take cheap dilution twice on one asset.

How about get the FPSO in place and then farm out 1bn barrels on Lancaster with the incoming partner coming in and funding the drilling out of Halifax to increase the size of the farm out on better terms.

GWA could then be separately drilled up and farmed out after using the FPSO to demonstrate it. The FPSO is deliberately being placed to allow testing from Warwick.

If this sort of logic was applied we might see £5 a share and keep Dr Trice happy!

[ghhghh] 30/11/2017 11:25

So what is the thinking re early farm out so that next phase can be appraised. Hence full field development can be sanctioned as soon as Phase 1 'proven'. This would be about mid 2020?

Or HUR can be sold at a good valuation albeit post farm out dilution.

If we delay this by 2 years, then that's two years of dead money for shareholders? Shares are currently 24p because dead money?

It is clearly, in principle, in everyone's interest to fast track Phase 2. Obviously the massive grey area is an acceptable offer/valuation.

[francis55] 30/11/2017 11:13

Activist investor imposter. TB is a wannabee twitter stump.

[fardistanthills] 30/11/2017 11:00

Yep, agree all that is needed is a new chairman that the present board - who mostly have been in place a while and seem to get along just fine - can work with, but work with to the timescales Trice sets, which are set for 'technical' reasons, rather than to meet some quick return driven mentality.

[davidblack] 30/11/2017 10:56

HD rational analysis! Shock horror.

You will be accused of stirring up the dragons if you’re not careful.

On your suggestion I think the appointment of a serious heavyweight oilman to chair the company would progressively achieve the same end.

Just think how much Dr Trice could achieve when the cashflow of 17,000 barrels a day is directed at exploration with I hope a few holes into GWA please?

[fardistanthills] 30/11/2017 10:56

Another way of looking at all this is to focus on timelines rather than funding, which like it or not is now in place.

Everyone says Trice has been brilliant at what he has done so far, and in my view will deserve what some seem to see as ill gotten gains, if he can build the company along the lines he proposes - exiting in 2020 is it?

James Dyson, and my particular hero Jim Ratcliffe at INEOS, are examples of what can be achieved by non-establishment non-managerial non-city mavericks. And of course going back a bit, Frank Hornby of Meccano fame. Building train sets is not something to be left to city slickers.

I believe RT needs to be given time to prove things up. Complete the EPS programme and interpretation, a few more wells - Linwick, Halifax - and most importantly let him do it, his way. 12 - 15 months not too long surely.

Tell me who else could do it better, quicker.

With respect, give him his three years or so, that's all he asks.

Lets not be driven by a short term quick buck city mentality.

[haideralifool] 30/11/2017 10:20

Hi ghh,

I've been reasonably comfortable with various PIs who've taken an activist stance over the years, (Was & Paul Scott come to mind), because there seemed a reasonable alignment of their interests and other shareholders.

I'm inclined to side with greyingsurfer on this one and that RB is pushing his own agenda.

To be honest his tweets are becoming a bit Trumpesque and not very professional. It seems as if he's the one under pressure and not HUR or their management.

We've all seen situations before where complete crucifixion of the share price was just a good buying opportunity and not reflecting the business at all. I think the same applies here.

[ghhghh] 30/11/2017 10:06

HD

I suspect you are spot on. There is clearly a problem of sufficient seriousness as to cause RB of CA to go public re 'Corporate Governance', whatever that means.

Are we talking about:

1. Trice running HUR autocratically, as if his private company. Senior management unhappy.

2. Trice taking too generous bonuses, expenses.

3. Trice lacking the development expertise but not recognising this (your point).

4. A disagreement between Trice and CA re farm out strategy. Perhaps CA want early farm out of Phase 2 so that can fast track. That means accepting a low(er) ball offer.

Trice may view offers as too low and wants to wait until concept proven. However if we wait till say mid 2020 (will need 12 months flow to prove concept and maximise value?) then HUR way behind curve. Will be 2025 before Phase 2 flowing and oil price from 2025......? Plus the NPV calcs a balancing act, give away more now partly compensated by revenues 2 or 3 years earlier.

5. It's possible HUR have received offers to sell part and CA want to diversify risk.

As PI's we have no idea what's going on behind closed doors but there does appear to be some serious smoke.

CA next update their holding second week Dec, I'm hoping not the sellers.

It is reassuring that Kerogen and CA together hold a major % of shares. CA 8%, Kerogen 22% If both in agreement they can threaten EGM.

[hiddendepths] 30/11/2017 10:00

There are ways, idleduck. For instance, restructure so that Hurricane plc is a parent company, with Trice CEO, and two subsidiaries, Hur Development, with a new management team, and Hur Exploration and New Ventures, with Trice CEO and COO. To address Taudelta1's point, in such a scheme Trice would have oversight of Hur Dev and input on the geological aspects of the production wells.

A Company structure of this kind would allow HUR Dev to be sold in whole or in part if necessary while continuing with 100% interest in Hur Exp.

I would suggest that GLA could be the only asset put into Hur Dev at present but other fields could be added when they are at a more advanced stage.

There are other possible solutions of course!

Possibly I could Email John van der Welle, in charge of the team looking at management, who I know of old.

[idleduck] 30/11/2017 09:47

Hiddendepths; You say: "One way of keeping and utilising RT would be to take him away from company management and the existing acreage entirely."

Don't be ridiculous!!! RT wouldn't brook that at all.

[elcapital2017] 30/11/2017 09:38

rackers Krijg de kanker

[chessman2] 30/11/2017 09:19

RT will be with us for a long time yet. HUR is doing what they said they would do so it is just a matter of being patient.

Unfortunately many investors are impatient; they get bored and decide to sell which is one reason why the share price has gone down to where it is.

It's very irritating at times but I continue to hold and have great expectations of the months ahead.

[fireplace22] 30/11/2017 09:17

Trice stands to make 100's of millions if this gets through to FFD.