Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 01/12/2022 07:13

LLB

Well done on the interest rate prediction yesterday.

Now can you predict what HUM's share price will be end Jan 23?

[dickbush] 30/11/2022 22:48

After four consecutive "jumbo" rate hikes of 0.75 percentage point, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested that the next rate hike in December will only be 0.50 percentage point, in a speech at The Brookings Institute on Wednesday.

"It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases," Powell said, citing a recent drop in year-over-year inflation, as well as the lag effects to prices from "rapid" rate hikes in 2022.

[1knocker] 30/11/2022 17:02

llb, my attitude to Hum is 'I shall believe it when I see it, and even then I shall look twice'. It was really only the trading element of my gold I sold. This seems a 'down all round' market to meat present. Whether I buy back into gold, or top up royalty companies remains to be seen. Ecor or whatever it is now called [is there a new board for the new name?]would be interesting below 140, and of course its nice Tove a yield. I am also contemplating physical copper if it drops a bit, as an alternative to than rebuilding the gold holding.

The really important question though is whether /when I should start selling down my very overweight fossil Energy positions. There is no doubt that they are going to get clobbered worldwide with tax hikes (just for the good of the planet of course).

12 months ago the sector allocations were petty clear, and the Ukraine sanctions made the overweight energy positioning doubly satisfactory. I just don't have any clear view for 2023, save that royalty companies are good news is inflationary /stagflationary times. I added Sitio recently (and that has since risen 20%) for some US oil royalty exposure.

I am about all square (in nominal terms) on the portfolio over the past 12 months, despite getting robbed of Raven and Gazprom [why it aids the Ukrainians to give away my money to Russians defeats me] and Hargreaves Lansdown insisting I sold a couple of US oil and gas infrastructure LPs because of pendingUS tax changes (though happily after the exchange rate had improved a bit and I had made 100% total return), but after a fairly straightforward investment landscape this year, next year at present looks likely to be really difficult, It would not surprise me if next year it is virtually impossible to break even even in nominal (non inflation adjusted) terms.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/11/2022 15:29

#1Knocker, an interesting move for POG today to sell into, I doubt very much rate hikes will stop, but they might slow up, maybe +0.50% in December and January, the inflation data is still shocking and does not look to have peaked just yet..The DXY has weakened almost 10% and looks to be pricing in slowing rate moves..Progress here is more ounces driven than POG, but with both on our side heading into FY an share price recovery could be on its way..Kouroussa commissioning just 6 months off now.. :o)Next progress update mid/late January..

[1knocker] 30/11/2022 14:08

Sold 20% of my gold bullion today. I doubt I got the top, but I shall be surprised (and v disappointed!) if I do not get the chance to buy back lower over the next 3 months. Either we get a Santa stock rally and the steam goes out of gold with the optimism, or get more 'everything down'. Only if Powell says interest rates rises are complete or nearly so (unlikely I think when they are still way below inflation) should today's sale be a seriously bad mistake.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/11/2022 07:48

POG picking up nicely (1,768) and heading towards 1,800 against a DXY that has been relatively flat but in a rising trend from 105 to 106 so it is being bought into which is an interesting move..

Just what we need here on the back of recovering our ounce tally to restore profitability into FY…

[1knocker] 29/11/2022 15:15

New Found Gold up another 7% today. The rises today and yesterday are on the back of drilling results. I hold a few, still about 10% underwater, but may top up with a few more when the present excitement dies down and the share price falls back a bit. I like the look of the management team and the investors list. Its a fairly long term play. But at worst one for the children rather than the grandchildren, I hope!!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2022 14:12

Good progress at Kouroussa, as I highlighted last week the camp is all up with roofs on, the building frameworks look like they are being clad in cut to shape paving slabs and well underway, we can see the foundations for the sag mill going in, and now the cylinder has turned up ready to go on them too.. :o)

Another day closer to a 2nd mine and de-risking the companies income profile with another 100K ounces a year .. :o)

[borderterrier1] 29/11/2022 13:18

1knocker Everyone knows that Plat is a delusional idiot. Hum is a leading, multi asset, multi jurisdictional development and exploration company, run by an experienced, dedicated management and Ceo. The Hum ten year chart and PH's previous moronic comments on here should be proof enough.

[dickbush] 29/11/2022 12:57

Either they have the extra $20m from Coris Bank or they are generating sufficient cash flow this quarter for it not to be essential. Let's hope it's the latter.

[borderterrier1] 26/11/2022 14:40

tremujiin Fair comment indeed but you seem to be missing the point. The 10 year chart shows that the Ceo and "management" here have proved conclusively now that they are all grossly incompetent. Why would they care what any of the investors think by posting a few pictures? It's just too much trouble and I doubt if anyone would believe them anyway? They will continue to pocket their salaries regardless until this goes belly up.

[temujiin] 26/11/2022 09:41

It's fair comment to say HUM are much higher risk investment than they were 2 years ago before Yani fell on iys face for various reasons and management's chronic failure to resolve the issues.

Market is not convinced they have done enough to turn it around although on paper Q4 shld see a significant improvement and I expect 27k poured, give or take 500 oz. About 10k more than dire Q3.

Comms from management are dire tho, how much effort would it take to tweet a photo of the new rigs digging the high grade?

Helpful that POG stabilised $100 above recent lows.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/11/2022 08:58

#CreditCrunchies, the risk profile is right on the edge for many of us remainers too.. :o) but the balance of probability for me is weighted slightly in favour, success will be driven by mining volumes and that will be driven by Corica now, POG has also shifted in our favour, I do not expect Coris to pull up the drawbridge being USD100M into Kouroussa already, but the risk is there..

It is a long road back for sure, but 12 months from now I see it more likely we will be sat on 200,000 ounces a year with Dugbe the dark horse waiting to be realised..

The latest gallery photos from Kouroussa evidence how far the plant has come on in October since the last video in September, all of the mine camp is up with roofs on now for any who have not looked in for a while..

[creditcrunchies] 26/11/2022 08:46

Ruffer are pretty much the entire institutional investment in HUM so they're a significant indicator much more so than the management because you cannot believe a word of what they say. In fairness Ruffer only made a minor reduction in their position. There's still some light, though for me the risk profile is out of my comfort zone. I will certainly take no pleasure and will genuinely feel gutted for everyone here if this goes down the pan. If it turns out good well done for you guys for sticking it out.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/11/2022 07:50

#1Knocker, a challenging share to hold this one for sure, management have not endeared themselves to shareholders with their own goals the past 18 months, but when we were pulling out 30,000+ ounces a quarter most were happy with results, Ruffer and Coris included, I am here for the turnaround in progress, Kouroussa, and Dugbe, we do have a route to success and only 6 months to 1st pour at the second mine now provided we can get Yanfolila cashflow positive to fund it, which I believe we can now the mining contractor is better supported..

Positive macro drivers will be rates cooling late 23 into 24 as recession bites and a weaker USD raising POG, a rising tide lifts all boats of course but we need it more than most to recover margins, 1,750 an ounce going into FY22 is way better than 1,650 with our AISC suffering as it is..

Ruffer selling 0.3% is not really indicative of their patience running out at that scale reduction, could be many other reasons too including sending the BOD a signal..

Time will tell and the proof as ever will be in the pudding..:o)

[sleveen] 25/11/2022 16:49

Shine On You Crazy Diamond.

[plat hunter] 25/11/2022 14:29

"Signs of Life" with Kor build getting to "The Last Few Bricks" then it'll be "Money"

[borderterrier1] 25/11/2022 13:28

TBTT I agree entirely with your opinions here. I find it disturbing that this scenario is often repeated throughout the business world and some are so conceited enough to believe they are fireproof and they can get away with it. They can't, eventually it catches up with them.......as Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes found out recently when she was sentenced to 11 years in prison.

[sleveen] 25/11/2022 11:44

You're treading on Thin Ice.

[creditcrunchies] 25/11/2022 10:43

This is like the song called Hey You by Pink Floyd :-D

[tigerbythetail] 23/11/2022 16:58

Hi BT!
I know Betts' type.
IMO, he missed his calling. He would have made an excellent Tory backbench MP. Born wealthy, entitled, arrogant, lazy, and with a bulletproof sense of his own worth despite his essential uselessness...
Ruffer selling is not good news at all. But then again, the news from Mali just gets worse and worse. In the end it may well be "country risk" that finishes off Hummingbird. (And indeed Cora). Where there is Wagner, money will be racketed / extorted from miners, that's for sure. It's their standard M.O.