Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[golden prospect] 21/4/2021 17:08

After hours trade 525,000 @ 21p published 17:05

Wonder if GPPM have added today to join the top 25 holders!

Stock will go to sticky long termers as a great recovery play.

[ Trade 90 (just appeared) at 13:30 is 1,000,000 at 21p ; fascinating. ]

[polaris] 21/4/2021 16:43

Sorry if already posted. Here is the link to the VOXmarkets podcast if you don't have it:



edit

Some info:
$2 M spent on exploration in Q1 at Yanfolila and still cash generative in the Q
New mining contractor started this Q (think it is these guys
More exploration news-flow expected
Kouroussa unrest is from illegal artisanal miners and up to authorities to sort out

[charlieeee] 21/4/2021 15:46

Lowtrawler

There is more than one "Kouroussa" company, so not necessarily HUM specific at all.

The reports were of attacks on the authorities for their part rather than any company such as HUM or Volt.

[golden prospect] 21/4/2021 15:35

Thanks DB, appreciated.

[johnhemming] 21/4/2021 15:28

This includes nominee names.

[borderterrier1] 21/4/2021 15:14

I see an experienced chief operations officer has been appointed. Really? Perhaps that is to overide someone who wasn't experienced and didn't really know what he was doing but overruled and micro managed every chance he got? It only took 5 years to figure out the main problem here. But at least it may be a step in the right direction....... at last.

[dickbush] 21/4/2021 15:14

Top 25 shareholders own 60.61% of the company.

Ownership Name Shares
8.97% Ruffer LLP 32,063,103
4.16% HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited 14,884,153
4.02% Jupiter Fund Management Plc 14,372,794
3.98% Sustainable Capital Ltd 14,243,454
3.93% IG Group Holdings Plc, Asset Management Arm 14,029,267
3.78% M&G Investment Management Limited 13,500,000
3.15% A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm 11,269,291
2.42% Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 8,643,111
2.13% Standard Life Aberdeen plc 7,604,510
2.12% Charles Stanley & Co. Ltd, Asset Management Arm 7,580,609
1.92% Cartesian Capital Group, LLC 6,880,000
1.9% Interactive Brokers Group, Inc., Asset Management Arm 6,784,941
1.81% UBS Asset Management 6,477,689
1.79% Schroder Investment Management Limited 6,394,344
1.48% Smith & Williamson Investment Management LLP 5,273,113
1.47% DZ Bank AG, Asset Management Arm 5,248,335
1.44% AIMS Asset Management Sdn Bhd 5,150,000
1.36% Libra Advisors, LLC 4,855,000
1.36% JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments 4,851,000
1.3% River and Mercantile Asset Management LLP 4,637,705
1.27% Daniel Betts 4,554,048
1.25% Bank Julius Bär & Co Ltd., Asset Management Arm 4,457,454
1.23% Hosking Partners LLP 4,412,118
1.2% Acadian Asset Management LLC 4,301,195
1.17% Equiniti Group Limited, Asset Management Arm 4,176,181

Updated 1st of April 2021.

[temujiin] 21/4/2021 15:06

I've asked [e-mail] to ask Dan two questions

1. Will all funding for Kouroussa be 100% from debt funding, and how much is that?
2. What grades grams/ton does Dan anticipate will be mined at Yanifola in Q’s 2/3/4

She responded it was added to a list so if anyone has good relevant questions, email her.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/4/2021 14:56

H1-2020: 56,095 Oz sold | 1621 POG | 936 AISC | margin 685 | USD 38.9M EBITDA
H2-2020: 48,079 Oz sold | 1890 POG | 1389 AISC| margin 501 | USD 24.1M EBITDA

Q1-2021: 22,019 Oz sold | 1788 POG | 1496 AISC| margin 292 | USD 6.4M EBITDA

After HQ costs, Gov profit sharing and tax there will be some Q1 profit yes, just not very much, it is what it is though, a function of grade and will improve as grades get stronger..

I now see the operational summary and the financial summary tables which are a welcome addition to reporting, I hope this becomes a std template and we get continuity in the next one..

Q1 was never going to be strong but it is printed now and out of the way, current inventory covers the last debt payment off, and hopefully we can build some cash in Q2..

Onward and upward.. :o)

[plat hunter] 21/4/2021 13:53

Lowtrawler,I think the only take away is that it demonstrates how dangerous rumours are.Poor, desperate and scared people. Some good old fashioned ESG will sort it out. The sooner we can run pottery classes and a pig farm up at Kourrousa the better.

[lowtrawler] 21/4/2021 13:34

Plat, genuinely interested. I don't have any other holdings in that part of Africa but feel sure that if it was Kenya or Tanzania, the company would be getting heavy criticism. The lack of discussion would indicate little impact to HUM. Is that a view shared by most on here?

[plat hunter] 21/4/2021 13:16

Perhaps a 2 minute silence Lowtrawler?

[golden prospect] 21/4/2021 13:07

Just had a read over at the LSE HUM thread (not a user there)

Two things of interest, if on the HUM mailing list they have provided info re the top 25 holders. Anyone have it for this thread ? (or perhaps know the GPPM holding).

Also VOX Q&A interview tomorrow (22/4)

[lowtrawler] 21/4/2021 13:07

Some good posts today.

Are we planning to ignore the deaths at K? Is this par for the course and we can just brush it off with no lasting impact?

[cinoib] 21/4/2021 12:16

Slightly better than I expected so will sit tight and sleep better now we are on the road to recovery and freedom from debt is well in sight.

[dickbush] 21/4/2021 12:00

$100 mil Enterprise Value. Once Kouroussa licences are obtained (please!) HUM is a sitting duck for acquisition by someone much larger with a strong net cash position or happy to take on debt at these low interest rates.

I'm up to my eyes in HUM but I might just have to add when those mining licences are announced.

[polaris] 21/4/2021 11:02

Note also that gold poured and gold sold are not the same. HUM have an inventory of about 2600 oz gold at end of period, as stated in the operational summary. HUM report AISCs on gold sold, not gold produced, which can skew things a little. Some may not like this approach but it is flagged and the gold will be sold at some point. AISCs this Q would be lower if using gold poured/produced rather than gold sold. It'll all work through over several Qs and that is the sensible granularity for making comparisons, IMO. Take a look at the financial summary table in the report. There is a lot to like in those bottom three lines.

[golden prospect] 21/4/2021 10:45

Thanks polaris. It is truly a pleasure to see someone make such analysis re #4622

Very much appreciated.

[polaris] 21/4/2021 10:42

I'd expect the low has now passed. Just a quick example assuming Q2 is 'identical' to Q1 in terms of ore processed. I'll use Q2 2020 to illustrate the difference

Q1 2021
grade 2.16g/t
ore processed 345374 t
recovery 92.97 %
Using these figures gives gold poured of 22298.6 oz cf. actual of 22781 oz, which is enough accuracy for these simple estimates
AISC on gold sold is $1494 (on 22019 oz sold - i.e. some of gold produced was added to inventory, see operational summary line in results)

Q2 estimate
grade 2.36 g/t (Q2 2020 level)
ore processed 345374 t
recovery 92.97 %
expectation 24363 oz

The simple .2 g/t difference is worth about 2060 oz gold (depends on rounding etc - i made a small error first time around)

Assuming pog stays similar to Q1 then you have an uplift in revenues of $3.7 M and the AISCs fall because i assume they sell all the extra oz. How much do they fall by?

Q1 2021:
22019 x $1494 AISC (on gold sold) gives operating costs of $32.9 M

For Q2 this becomes:
$32.9 M / (22019+2060) = $1366 AISC

So, just by increasing the grade to that of Q2 last year there is a $3.7 M increase in revenues (at constant pog) and $128 decrease in AISCs.

HUM highlighted some H1 weighted costs that were included in AISCs (so will not repeat). Grade at KW increases as the ore body is accessed. It's above 2.5 g/t once fully stripped and prepared...grade impacted while the orebody is accessed...costs weighted to up-front for stripping and maintenance.

Try putting 2.5 g/t through the above simple calculation, which should be the case for H2 and beyond.

You can only really compare full fiscal periods with full periods. By the time we get to end FY21, i'd fully expect AISCs to be sub $1300 on gold sold of 100 k oz or so for the period. This is within the range quoted and reiterated by management.

That's before the positive impact of having a COO onsite to make sure things are running properly. It is money well spent.

edit - a couple of calculation errors now sorted! doh!!

[plat hunter] 21/4/2021 09:56

AISC's aren't just affected by grade but also tonnage processed versus tonnage moved.It literally couldn't be spelled out any more succinctly with the additional storage units.There's a few here, with 'some' knowledge who have lulled themselves into a false sense of security with regards to the ability of other readers here.Now that I've been proved right, it's time i ignored them.. Bye bye, the Bravo's LLB's and Charlllieee's. You've let your credibility fall through your fingers like sand

[temujiin] 21/4/2021 09:15

Well I am pleasantly surprised that the share price is holding up ok as often even good RNS's can see the share price dip. I wouldn't have been surprised if we had dropped into the 18 or 17p area but maybe this RNS is a reflection on what happens if the company openly communicate to shareholders what to expect, and so the high AISC has already been factored in to the share price

It's good that in that light we also know ''Q1 2021 is expected to be the lowest production quarter for the year''. So if we add in going forward

Exporation upside
Dugbe news
Kourroussa news

to the expected improving quarterly gold production from Yani and improved AISC, then perhaps we have now finally reached the bottom and can get back above 30p in the next quarter or two.

[polaris] 21/4/2021 09:11

@LLB. Grade. That's how AISCs fall. It's flagged that grade will be lower in H1 so AISC higher. Get the grade back in the high 2s and the fixed costs are the same as the run through mill doesn't change. The gold produced does - it increases - so revenue goes up AND cost per unit goes down. One factor to watch: grade!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/4/2021 09:03

Perhaps a little harsh earlier, I was frustrated by the reporting consistency, last Q reporting the AISC on gold sold not poured to keep it under 1500, now it is not clear, last Q the cash position was stated separately not combined with the inventory, it just looks non transparent as the cash position was actually near zero..

On the whole I am pleased with progress towards debt free status, it is a huge milestone to be proud of against hugely challenging circumstances and a credit to the team..

However a repeat 1500 AISC quarter after operating costs has not generated any progress on the retained cash or gold positions which we really need to build on to be able to fund Kouroussa without going back into debt again..?

I am struggling to see how we will get into a position with a forecast 1250-1350 AISC to generate USD10M a month to fund the Kouroussa build over 18-24 months...? [edit] >2000 POG would help but far from a given...!

Solid progress at Dugbe/BH and the company is inching forward.. :o)

[golden prospect] 21/4/2021 09:03

Some excellent observations.

Looks like the forecast was met.

The going forward should be spectacular cash flows.

I have seen the plat chart ( ) and thought for a bit of fun to overlay one key factor!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com