Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[borderterrier1] 04/5/2021 12:43

PP Delusional garbage has been spouted on here by others for many years now to no avail. deme1 and charlieeee are right, YOU are DEAD WRONG. And remember I speculated that BushyTwerp on the LSE bb was DB? Why did I suspect that? And now dropinmonkey is saying exactly the same thing? Oh no! Don't say I'm right about that, like I have been about ALL THE OTHER things over the last 5 YEARS? Keep your money in the bank, it's safer than this. A LOT safer. .

[golden prospect] 04/5/2021 11:27

JH, the thought "If POG remains over USD1.6 k the stock is worth GBP1+"
begins to resonate with some.

[plat hunter] 04/5/2021 11:03

This range is getting ridiculous now... Where's that ML Dan?Https://www.tradingview.com/x/38PogVwU

[deme1] 04/5/2021 10:28

LOL what a dog of a share.

Well done Plat you playa

[plat hunter] 04/5/2021 07:42

That's why i laughed at his absurdity Border. You're not exactly boastful company.

[borderterrier1] 03/5/2021 23:17

Plat Plonker Of course, I agree with charlee. The rest of you are, unfortunately, delusional ostriches.

[plat hunter] 03/5/2021 22:08

Lol Charlieee, you're swimming against the tide at these levels I think. "Waffle waffle waffle"Balls get dropped in every walk of life, how you pick them up is important. Storage tank capex and a new operations manager fixes q4Dugbe is a 350 million capex project how much would you have rather been diluted by to bring it online before 2030?

[charlieeee] 03/5/2021 21:45

Betts certainly did a good job taking the Dugbe asset off the shareholders for an undisclosed sum, but highly unlikely to reflect its cost to the shareholders.

I have no problem with Stalker and Co cutting a deal to suit themselves (particularly given their proven competence), but for HUM's second rate management, Messrs Betts, Hill and even one of the non execs, Nutter, to stick their hands in the till and help themselves to a substantial slice of the Dugbe pie is breach of any acceptable standard of fiduciary behavior.

Why would anyone believe this shower after the grossly misleading December RNS? They should have already known by then (from grade control)that Q4 was going to be bad and they were were going to miss the lower end of annual guidance by a mile. How dare he say a "material risk" when failure was a dead cert.?

There are multiple examples of incompetence and dishonesty and that partly explains the price disconnect.

Obviously POG also explains the extreme fall in the SP: this share is highly leveraged to POG because of the extra ordinarily high AISC of recent Qs. Equally, it should recover dramatically if POG goes back above $1800. Perhaps, this time the clowns in charge will hedge (necessary, since with the high AISC, they are in no position to take the risk on gold price fluctuations and should have hedged accordingly last year).

[johnhemming] 03/5/2021 20:49

Noting the most recent comments and with a reasonably substantial interest in HUM.

a) I think Dan Betts is doing a good job.
b) If POG remains over USD1.6 k the stock is worth GBP1+

Personally it has hit my diversification limit, but I think it is a good investment. I don't agree with kicking the management.

[the ghost who walks] 03/5/2021 20:43

Very interesting, I'm in this stock now also because the cash flow looks good.Do you have any sense for the difference between the 10p u calcula5e and the broker 4p

[plat hunter] 03/5/2021 20:33

On Dugbe I imagine the AISC will be similar to Yani on the basis that it's half the grade but but will be processing 4 times the material.The cost savings being those achieved in the economies of scale of the processing plant.

[rubric1] 03/5/2021 19:55

Been trying to understand the intrinsic value of HUM. Any comments on the below would be gratefully received. I know there is stuff I have got wrong, and would appreciate being put right.

1. 2021 production guidance is 100-110k oz at AISC of $1250-$1350. Assuming mid ranges of each and a gold price of $1788 (last quarters price) I get 2021 earnings of around 105,000 x (1788-1300) = $51M. Given 357M shares and converting to GBP at £1=$1.4, thats around 10p per share full year earnings – substantially over current broker estimates of 4p. Not sure if that EPS allows for corporation tax, which would take it down 20-30%.

2. HUM appears to have had a credibility issue in recent years, the chief exec is not well liked on this board. The recent newsflow seems to be that they have improved financial reporting, and hired an experienced COO to address cost overruns. Distrust of managements numbers could explain the discrepancy in 2021 EPS.

3. The expectation is that AISC drops from $1494 in Q1 to $1250-£1350 for the full year. If production is weighted towards later in the year then that could be reasonable.

4. The Yanfolila mine has an MRE of 1.92M oz, or about 18 years worth of gold at 105,000 per year. Of course, extraction rate may increase and hopefully more ore will be found with the 2021 $10m exploration project. Is it reasonable that much of the MRE would be extracted, or could there be a lot of unrecoverable ore ? I couldnt find much opinion on that point.

If all that ore was recovered, and no more was found, and gold remained the same price and AISC was $1300 then the mine is worth around $930M, before discounting back to todays money. Thats a lot of Ifs so in reality it will probably be less than that – though it could also be more.


5. Kouroussa is pre development. If the MRE of 1.18M Oz is correct then it is worth around $575M. Even more Ifs on that estimate, but also more unknown potential upside. The implied goal is to pull around $100k Oz of gold PA from the mine, which could almost double current EPS.

6. Dugbe appears to be a case of Hummingbird not wanting to throw good money after bad, and have got a partner to pay for exploration in return for 49% of the mining rights. The partner (Pasofino) seems to have an experienced board from their investor presentation. The MRE seems to be relatively low grade ore (around 1.5g/t) so presumably the AISC will be higher. Anyone got any idea what a reasonable AISC assumption would be ?

HUM will own 51% minus the Govts 10% interest, so around 45% of the total project. I could make a case for the HUM share to be worth anything from zero to $400m or so.

7. The stakes in Cora Gold and Bunker Hill are worth something, but probably small in the overall context.

8. If we add the implied valuations of the 3 main mines we get a per share value of around £3.80. Before everyone laughs hysterically, of course that assumes lots of things go well – which they won’t. So the real value is a lot less than that. The question is how much to discount the future unknowns (political risk / war etc) to get to an intrinsic value.

[borderterrier1] 01/5/2021 19:14

PH If only my lifestyle wasn't negatively impacted by my decision to invest in companies that are run by incompetence I would be even happier? Blissfully even? Lots of good stocks out there. Unfortunately, despite what others tell you, this isn't one of them.

[plat hunter] 01/5/2021 18:32

That's a decent margin if it at least holds through Q3 and 4 when the AISC should be nearer 1k

[plat hunter] 01/5/2021 17:56

That's brilliant that Border, dead jealous, you the man

[borderterrier1] 01/5/2021 15:21

Plat Hunter It's obviously a lot better than yours? Some people can't help being idiots especially with their delusional comments about Hum. Look in the mirror.

[plat hunter] 01/5/2021 14:29

Tell us all about your lifestyle Border.

[dickbush] 01/5/2021 08:05

April average gold price $1752.

[borderterrier1] 01/5/2021 00:16

Plat Plonker. If you knew me and my lifestyle, it would be abundantly clear that wouldn't work. Have a great weekend, I will. BTW take a look at SIMO, I'm doing well with it.

[golden prospect] 30/4/2021 16:22

Chip, no problem.

What I would like to see is SC go long again for over 10% holding.

Excellent opportunity for the instruction say to add 20m below 22p,
and with a range-bound share price much can be concealed.

Prospects for HUM look great if grades, production and pog all increase.