Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[knightsfx] 05/3/2021 12:19

PH - We are mostly medium to long tern investors here share different views but united in going forward with constructive communication with the board.

The numbers slowly building up and we currently represents 6.2% market capital which is the 2nd largest holders. just to update - 49 declared private investors holding 22,184,857 shares which is 6.21%.

I hope this helps. with regards

Here is the top 25 holders of HUM

Top 25 shareholders own 59.7% of the company
Ownership Name Shares
1 9.39% Ruffer LLP 33,568,649
2 4.98% Sustainable Capital Ltd 17,810,854
3 4.79% Jupiter Asset Management Limited 17,122,794
4 3.78% M&G Investment Management Limited 13,500,000
5 3.37% Schroder Investment Management Limited 12,035,419
6 3.20% HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited 11,420,691
7 2.83% Standard Life Aberdeen plc 10,129,142
8 2.51% IG Group Holdings Plc, Asset Management Arm 8,983,905
9 2.25% Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 8,031,313
10 1.92% Cartesian Capital Group, LLC 6,880,000
11 1.83% DZ Bank AG, Asset Management Arm 6,555,431
12 1.74% A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm 6,207,721
13 1.61% River and Mercantile Asset Management LLP 5,750,000
14 1.52% UBS Asset Management 5,447,695
15 1.50% JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments 5,346,000
16 1.44% Smith & Williamson Investment Management LLP 5,157,320
17 1.44% AIMS Asset Management Sdn Bhd 5,150,000
18 1.39% Investec Wealth & Investment Limited 4,966,953
19 1.28% Hosking Partners LLP 4,559,982
20 1.27% Daniel Betts 4,554,048
21 1.27% Interactive Brokers Group, Inc., Asset Management Arm 4,528,905
22 1.26% Odey Asset Management LLP 4,493,893
23 1.24% Bank Julius Bär & Co Ltd., Asset Management Arm 4,445,454
24 0.95% Deutsche Bank, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments 3,400,000
25 0.93% Premier Fund Managers Limited 3,338,168

[ukgeorge] 05/3/2021 10:24

"scramble when they start adding to their winning positions just wait and see."

PH you still have your screen upside down! The only ones in the black are SC and they have been selling.

Well done the Investor group, I hope you can relay some messages to the BOD and the company takes them on board.

[knightsfx] 05/3/2021 09:32

PH - fyi, We are optimistic of HUM future.

[plat hunter] 05/3/2021 09:17

Why exactly would anyone join a mutual masturbation club, just so they can send annoying emails about the stupid things people say on the forum boards?


The only vote that matters is the one with the queens head on it, if you're not happy, SELL, Simples.


You'll never achieve anything, other than propagate the perception of a problem that doesn't exist in the short term and with over 20 different institutional investors including managed funds holding HUM, you're just a drop in the ocean... I find it refreshing and rather pleased with myself for finding such a promising micro cap with such small PI participation, they'll be an absolute insti' scramble when they start adding to their winning positions just wait and see.

[knightsfx] 05/3/2021 08:09

HUMIU - "HUM Investors United" was initiated on the 4th of February in order to open up a constructive communication with the Board after their last RNS 2020 on 4th quarter.

If you are a medium to long term investor in HUM and interested then you may also join us by emailing your interest to [e-mail]

Here is our latest update:
Holdings, % Holdings, Number of holders Amount Holdings
3M - 5M, 33%, 2, 7,147,500
1M - 3M, 17%, 2, 3,678,317
500K-1 M, 28%, 8, 6,036,733
100K - 500K, 20%, 17, 4,447,313
50K-100K, 2%, 5, 379,370
1 - 50K, 1%, 13, 195,500
Total, 47, 21,884,733
% of Hum - 6.12%
Largest Holdings - 4,000,000
Smallest Holdings - 350
Waiting to disclosed - 5
Expressed interest - 3

GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/3/2021 18:02

#PH if you make juvenile comments you will just hit my ever growing filtered list, far better on the other hand you engage with some well reasoned counter arguments considering the fundamentals, not reading the technical tea leaves which as trailing indicators have not so far delivered much or any of a strategy from 27p down to 20p..

My above post is a statement of facts covering 4 consecutive quarters, not cherry picked and not conjecture, if you see things differently then post them, supported by evidence..

I see reduced profits driven by reduced POG, I think you will find that is a fact too.. :o), unless the ounces go up and the AISC heads south and fast, with POG at 1725oz we are treading water getting nowhere after HQ costs and everything else..

Confidence will return after the Q1 report demonstrates production progress, until then I see continued share price weakness due to POG slipping and now 1690, the DXY unfathomably keeps going up, and the 10 year TBill yields head north.., when those drivers reverse we will recover some additional margin..

Any revenue from Kouroussa is 18/24 months out from permitting, Dugbe is 2/3 years out, BH 2/3 years off, CORA are setting up their own Sanankoro project next, but not adding any revenue to HUM..

[borderterrier1] 04/3/2021 13:02

And then look at BushyTailed's latest gem on the LSE bb this morning:- "My monies on someone getting filled, offbook" Noooooo! Really? Why would that be done OFFBOOK I wonder? And please remember, BushyTailed said that, not me.

And I echo the sentiment of Iwantthatone on the LSE bb::- "Please God, somebody put us out of our misery and buy this." Exactly. Come on Del Boy you're obviously well out of your depth here. Get rid of it, 40p a share will do, not much chance of it ever getting higher than that is there? At least not with you at the helm. Try your hand at chicken farming, according to your recent podcast, you seem to be more interested in that than gold mining.

[plat hunter] 04/3/2021 09:13

LLB you can't pick and choose your dates on a quarterly basis to disagree with someone who's making a point based on annual data.That's called cherry picking and being a cry baby. With all due respect, I think you're better than that and to say the least, it's a little exhaustive now.It's a couple of quarters out of 5 years and within 2% of the mine model. I think you're wrong and have been adding at these levels. We're also in the twilight of Q1 now, if you're still not over it then it might be better to sell. I sincerely doubt you'll convince anyone important enough and even if you did, my monies on a shrug of the shoulders as a solution

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/3/2021 08:52

#johnhemming, I disagree (in parts).. :o)

H1-2020 | 56,095 ounces | POG 1621 | AISC 936 | margin 685 | EBITDA USD38.9M
Q3 produced 24,722 | POG 1919 | AISC 1283 | margin 636 | EBITDA 15.7M
Q4 produced 22,012 | POG 1862 | AISC 1496 | margin 366 | EBITDA 8M
H2-2020 | 46,734 ounces | POG 1890 | AISC 1390 | margin 500 | EBITDA 23M
Q1-2021 ounces..? | POG 1775 est | AISC 1500 est ..? | margin 275 ..?

Q4 debt reduction came from inventory sales, and cash was flat after interest payments, so we were running at scratch, it follows that Q1-2021 could be worse if we get a static ounces number, and a -100 lower POG..

[johnhemming] 04/3/2021 07:57

LLB the EBITDA margin for Yanfolila was stated to be $75m at a gold price of say 1850

Hence that is USD750/oz if the figure was 100koz and 682 for 110oz.

So if the gold price is say USD 1600 then the margin would be 500 or 482.

[johnhemming] 04/3/2021 07:53

I suppose I am more numerically driven than narrative driven. Unless there is a really good reason for numerical trends to change I tend to assume that they won't.

[charlieeee] 03/3/2021 20:37

Well done you, John, for assuming that December was going to be another appalling result similar to Oct. and Nov. but that is not what the RNS said.

Had management made the same calculations as you, they would have advised that they were going to fall short of the low end of guidance and given revised guidance of 100k to 103k oz for the full year.

There were plenty here assuming that production would return to 10k for the month on the basis of that RNS, with an expectation that similar would carry through into Q1.

[plat hunter] 03/3/2021 19:28

LLB, 100 Mill already lined up in principle for kouroussa from existing lender.As far as I'm aware the terms are project specific too, ie. Kourussa will borrow and pay it back. It should have no impact on the cashflow of Yanfolila

[borderterrier1] 03/3/2021 18:45

And the latest prize for investor of the week is BushyTailed on the LSE bb who tells us all confidently:- "Almost out of sellers, this is going to rocket." I guess he's taken over the prime position that Plat Hunter filled last month and Tones 77777 the month before? I think in time you will find out like the rest of us that this is going nowhere.....

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/3/2021 17:57

#Chip, I hope it is that low..., to fund Kouroussa I see USD100M needed, or 5.5M a month for 18 months to build/pay for it from Yanfolilla cashflows before needing any debt..

Given we managed debt reduction of USD2M a month for Q4-2020 all from the previous quarters inventory sales not from the quarters production profits, cash in hand was pretty flat just 2M up from 9 to 11..

Q1-2020 Cash 8M | Gold 17M| Debt 34M
Q2-2020 Cash 6M | Gold 8M | Debt 26M
Q3-2020 Cash 9M | Gold 9M | Debt 19M
Q4-2020 Cash 11M| Gold 4M | Debt 13M
Q1-2021 Cash ..?| Gold ..?| Debt ..?
Q2-2021 Cash ..?| Gold ..?| Debt ..?

Unless margins/ounces/grade improve I see a material risk of not being positioned to build the necessary cash war chest, or not being debt free in H1 as we can not run the cash position down to zero..? a shrinking and now just 225/oz EBITDA margin is not going to cut it..?

[johnhemming] 03/3/2021 17:56

In the end we see a lot of people selling because the gold price is going down. One assumes with some evidence that similar people will buy when the gold price is going up.

In the mean time there is an investable business.

[chipperfrd] 03/3/2021 16:46

Had a go at building in Kououssa and Dugbe projects into a group DCF model.

Bit early I know, because much could change over the next few years and available data on both the new projects is still a bit limited.

I went for first commercial production from Kouroussa in 2023 with pre-production CAPEX of US$90m required over 2021/2022.

I have assumed full production from Dugbe in 2024 with pre-production CAPEX of c. US$260m and production around the 230koz/year level. Clearly, the upcoming DFS will clarify much of the required detail.

I wanted to see how cash flow might then work out and whether significant debt might be required to meet startup costs for Dugbe.

After allowing for all estimated costs and tax, royalties, et al, I came to a gold price sensitivity of c. US$1,300/oz before bottom-line cash flows indicate that debt might be required.

Only time will tell. As fresh data for both new projects becomes available it should be possible to refine this model, but as an initial 'straw man' it looks pretty good.
Chip

[johnhemming] 03/3/2021 16:43

I have only recently got involved in this stock. However, the RNS is here:



From that RNS you can calculate how many Oz of gold were poured in October and November. I did a forecast assuming December would be much the same and that forecast was about right (slightly understated).


I am in touch and associated with the investors group. "Its good to talk"

However, I am not that critical of management. They have managed to build a company with quite a bit of potential without being cash rich. Even at a low gold price they will still be cash positive. However, I expect to see inflation in many countries and particularly in the USA and the UK. Hence investing in HUM has a limited downside, but quite a bit upside.

[plat hunter] 03/3/2021 16:24

"Management of a public company need to pay a price for such actions"


That's a little dramatic imo


AISC guidance of 1250 for 2021 makes HUM a cash printing machine even if gold puts in an average performance for the year of only 1600 which is very very unlikely IMO.

[charlieeee] 03/3/2021 14:57

Seagreen

Mining is a science for engineers and an art for everyone else, particularly those who are economical with the truth.

So many of the well run mining outfits, big and small, flagged up by September that 2020 targets would not be met: HUM management only did so in December 2020.

In that RNS of 2nd 2020 this is what they said:

"This is demonstrated in the attached diagrams of the key producing pit, KE, showing where the high grade ore remains at a depth below the current pit floor which was due to be mined in the original 2020 mine plan. This ore remains available and is currently being mined."

As at the date of that RNS, within 29 days to the end of the Q, they were clearly not mining high grade ore and grade control would have already been showing that there was going to be no high grade ore in the immediate future.

Instead of saying that there was a material risk of missing the lower end of guidance, they should have known by then that they were going to fall well short by 9000 oz. What grade do you think they would need to be processing to get 17,000 oz through the plant in December, given its maximum capacity?

As far as I am concerned, they continued to mislead the market (either deliberately, or because of indolence, not having updated daily mining information, or sheer ignorance).

Management of a public company need to pay a price for such actions: currently, HUM shareholders are paying the price.

[seagreen] 03/3/2021 12:48

charlieeee mining is as much an art as an exact science and covid and a very hostile local environment has not helped. Considering how they have also reduced debt to such an extent I think management are much maligned by some very ignorant and uneducated comments all be it mainly on the other thread not least by the individual who claims he has not sold at various price highs as he is holding the US OTC shares where apparently there is no volume to dispose of his holding. (Surely a call to the house broker may help to expdite a solution.) Once the debt has been repaid subject to gold prices this share should start to increase in value over time, but it is well documented that it is a high cost producer.