Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[polaris] 03/2/2021 11:16

Why not that they are just hoping to under-promise for 2021, given what happened in 2020?

100-110 k oz cf. up to 125 k oz for 2020 is quite a drop in guidance. What has changed re: the mine pan in early 2020?

Lower production guidance will also add to AISC, as most of those costs are fixed. The more they produce, the lower the AISC per oz produced. $1350 @100 k oz, $1250 @110 k oz, etc... if they did actually manage to get to 125 k oz then costs would be closer to $1075 per production oz.

Then you've got pog. Anything over $1750 average for 2021 and things are rosy, even at $1350 AISC. Current pog is sat close to $1830 and 200 DMA sits around $1875. Best guess this early in the year is cash inflow around $50 M. I'm sure Chip has a reasonable model for the NPAT, given he nailed it for 2020.

The main things under control of HUM are LoM, developments in other projects and finally paying off that debt and beginning to build a cash pile to leverage against costs to bring other projects to production.

Today, you get that for £100 M. Each to their own to decide whether the long term prospects outweigh any risks.

[bikwik] 03/2/2021 11:13

Why don't we all see what Chip thinks. He is after all the acknowledged expert in gold stocks. What about it Chip?

[nelson01] 03/2/2021 11:07

The idiot couldn't shoot a fish in a barrel

[roguetreader] 03/2/2021 11:03

The AISC debate:

The 5-Year Rolling Mine Plan assumed 120,000 Oz for 2021, this was pre-Covid. The reduction in forecast to between 100,00 – 110,000 Oz will impact AISC i.e. the less Oz the bigger the impact on AISC. Also Q2 2020 Report stated that COVID-19 and particularly employment costs and logistics costs coupled with, potential, extra material movement later in the year as HUM look to take advantage of higher gold prices to re-sequence the mine plan would ensure long term profitability of the mine and that this would impact AISC.

My take on the above is that Oz’s have been pushed out from 2021 (obviously); due to Covid reservations, but may be more importantly due to the mine resequencing as this allows less profitable (possibly previously unprofitable Oz) to now be extracted due to the increased gold price. The combination of pushing Oz out, resequencing and the additional Covid cost have resulted in the significant bump up in AISC forecast for 2021.

However, the Oz that have been deferred will still be produced at a later date and contribute to LOM extension so this is only negative in the short-term. Similarly the mine resequencing is effectively taking advantage of the gold price increase and is long term positive. That leaves the increase in AISC due to Covid which is outside of HUM’s control. It would be good for the company to give a fuller outline of the make-up of the AISC for 2021, maybe at the next DB presentation / interview?

Just my take, happy for any other counter POV.

RT

[nelson01] 03/2/2021 10:47

I the pice fell to 10p he would have bought at 8p

[vish65] 03/2/2021 10:42

The disappointment is not just in the AISC being high but that there is no real comment or recognition by management on how they would like to see or expect it to be reduced going forward.

Noting also for 2021 'Production profile weighted towards the second half of the year,' So this really needs a firm positive move by gold to reduce possible risk in the short term.

There are plenty of positives but in the near term its a wait and see depending on what happens with the gold price.

[plasybryn] 03/2/2021 10:41

I guess the long term trend is actually up. Look at the lows and draw a line. The progress is just so slow and costs seem stubbornly high. Is that due to poor management?

But it does seem to be coming ever closer to a pretty well de-risked play with plenty of upside potential. It should be renamed Patience.

[johnhemming] 03/2/2021 10:38

>Can't you just smell the panic.

I think there is an issue with automated stop losses. People can end up driving a price down and creating a loss for themselves.

As far as I am concerned I have put in a few automated buy orders so if the price goes further down I buy a bit more stock. I will then sit on it until sentiment shifts.

I will now get on with other things so won't respond to any questions for some time.

[charlieeee] 03/2/2021 10:37

Repeat

Mali govt holds at subsidiary level and not part of HUM: it will therefore not show as a HUM shareholder and does not have any part of Dugbe or Kouroussa, just Yanfolia, in a separate subsidiary company. All set out in the 2017 RNS.

[nelson01] 03/2/2021 10:37

He's a bigger liar than losda

[nelson01] 03/2/2021 10:35

You're a born loser plathunter

[kennyp52] 03/2/2021 10:34

It’s illogical that you are making money on falling share Plat . Are you basing profit on what you think you can sell it for ? It’s a dog . Border is right . AISC up and going up further . Why ? Over 100K Oz production but POG improvement being spent .. stinky set of figures

[rileyma] 03/2/2021 10:34

Where is bt?

[plat hunter] 03/2/2021 10:29

Managed to get back what i sold for less.Momentum isn't getting squeezed yet so could go lower still.

[bikwik] 03/2/2021 10:27

Unjustified of course, but its overwhelming reason at the moment.

[bikwik] 03/2/2021 10:26

Can't you just smell the panic.

[glennborthwick] 03/2/2021 10:22

Hoping to buy in at 25p. Will see.

[bikwik] 03/2/2021 10:19

Waiting to clear out the suckers!

[plat hunter] 03/2/2021 10:17

Note my sell yesterday and stop loss trigger at sub 30p Nelson Https://www.tradingview.com/x/UUDA5U16

[bikwik] 03/2/2021 10:17

Sentiment will turn.....maybe this will help...substitute Pork bellies for Hummingbird!

[nelson01] 03/2/2021 10:13

Plat Hunter......I think you got your chart upside down.

[lurker5] 03/2/2021 10:12

All the misplaced HUM ramping over the last five years (including bucket shop 'research', Campbell, and now an attention seeking 'Plat' Pratt (20 posts a day, none of which add anything) overlooked that juicy looking cash generation was, in fact, about to run out, and therefore no basis for 'valuing' HUM. Its the usual mistake made by excitable children.

[jbravo2] 03/2/2021 10:06

Those are some fierce costs