Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[borderterrier1] 25/4/2024 15:36

Bignads I agree 100%. BUT, shareholders made the choice based on their research on information to hand at the time. That information has proved repeatedly to be incorrect. As you say, that information and the current situation is a result of mismanagement. I believe that if something isn't working, (and it is abundantly clear to all investors by now that this definitely isn't) something needs to change. Unfortunately, it isn't here and the same glaringly incapable management is still in place. Until that changes, IMO this share price won't either.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/4/2024 15:06

#PH, we know that both plants are 1MTPA capacity, recoveries broadly similar so there should be some direct read across from the Yanfolila mine IF we can get enough ore to the ROM pad..

Q1 - Yanfolila | 1.61 g/t |16,999 oz |1,616 AISC |POG 2,030 |margin 414 |EBITDA 7M
Yanfolila Q2 - | 1.61 g/t |16,999 oz |1,616 AISC |POG 2,350 |margin 734 |EBITDA 12.5M
Kouroussa Q2 | 2.00 g/t | 21,250 ounces..? | 1,500 AISC..? | POG 2,350 | margin 850 | EBITDA 18M..?
Group total EBITDA 30M (less hedge adjustment)..?

Our numbers are not far off, trying not to count too many chickens ahead but as you suggest it is all there to play for now and where it gets exciting is the 3-4 g/t grades, we should be hitting some of those inside Q2 and the same from KEUG in H2.. :o)

Enhanced average ore grade to 1.97 g/t in March 2024. Anticipated further grade improvement with access to high-grade ore..

[bignads] 25/4/2024 14:54

Border terrier - agree that the present situation is down to mismanagement and An over-stretched balance-sheet but whether or not it's shareholders who should pick up the tab is immaterial - shareholders have made the choice to invest and consciously or not accepted their share of the risks. The question at this point is whether there is risk-adjusted value in the current situation.

[borderterrier1] 25/4/2024 14:36

japsoland. Exactly. If something obviously isn't working, changes need to be made. Get rid of the grinning idiot and this could be a different ball game.

[plat hunter] 25/4/2024 14:34

The plant at Kor is processing 300k tonnes of ore per quarter and the grade is now at 2g so assuming that grade for all of Q2 and we end up with 19,290 ounces out of Kor.

If we assume 18k from Yanfolila then we're on for what is imo a very conservative 37k ounces with an AISC of 1600, then we have a current margin of roughly 650 dollars an ounce adjusted for the hedge would return a Q2 EBITDA of circa 24 million.

All to play for now as that 2g will only get improved, as we move into the higher grades.

[jaspoland] 25/4/2024 14:21

If this was a bargain you'd expect the directors to be filling their boots but they're not. I wonder why?

[zhockey] 25/4/2024 13:59

But will 13K oz/qtr be profitable? That’s half what they saw as commercial production?

[borderterrier1] 25/4/2024 13:20

bignads. Question. What exactly IYO do you believe caused the "significant challenges of the debt situation"? Mismanagement or just bad luck? The ramifications and pitfalls for gold mining in W. Africa and Mali in particular have been long understood by the experienced. Why should the shareholders pick up the tab for the abundantly clear mismanagement here?

[bignads] 25/4/2024 12:31

...continued...increase in grades at kouroussa expected imminently - should double production overnight, pushing production into the 10-13,000ounce range for q2 assuming the stand-in contractors can deliver. With the current gold price that will bring in another $10-16m for that quarter...So we should get another $17-23m revenue for this coming quarter that q1 - that should be enough to stem the bleeding and start the road to recovery...On balance, finely balanced, but tilting in our favour....

[bignads] 25/4/2024 12:26

I think this is balancing on a knife edge with arguments in both directions - - against HUM are:- the significant challenges of the debt situation - kouroussa issues which will be draining the bank balance and (Corica only paused on 23 March so probably hasn't affected the production numbers for q1)- q3 wet season will come at just the wrong time. Hopefully, with two operating mines and some underground operations, the effect will be mitigated more than in the past - supportive of HUM are:- the inflation in the gold price which at current prices has increased the margin per ounce at YAN from c$400 to nearer $700 - which will bring in an extra $7m revenue per quarter just for that mine assuming constant output of 17000 ounces.- the

[temujiin] 25/4/2024 12:22

Undipped toe for now for a couple of hundred profit as although the mine is turning and solutions are being implemented, we are still a bit unsighted re fwd production etc. Keeping a close eye though with cash available for when it get sorted.

[jedi k] 25/4/2024 12:10

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7186729267659964417?commentUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A%28activity%3A7186729267659964417%2C7186809813115281409%29&dashCommentUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afsd_comment%3A%287186809813115281409%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7186729267659964417%29It would be good to see new picture or video direct from the Hum Management.

[jedi k] 25/4/2024 12:05

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/s%C3%A9kou-conte-117b3a18_linspection-des-%C3%A9quipements-est-une-composante-ugcPost-7188963411194494977-t7ni?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_iosThe wheels are definitely turning at KGM. Is that the ore going into plant?

[plat hunter] 25/4/2024 11:13

2 grams is cashflow neutral.. HUM have just RNS'd that cash accrual has commenced.

Those who are now posting out of habit run the risk of not just missing out but cementing their positions as absolutely clueless.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/4/2024 11:06

Some may have also missed the progress made here - the ongoing development of the high grade KEUG mine progressed well, with approx 164.5M of advance by the end of FY-2023.

Q1-2024 - significant progress was made in the development of the high-grade KEUG mine, with 614M of development now completed..

450M tunneling in 12 weeks is excellent progress towards the 4g/t down there and they are drilling/blasting/excavating almost every day, ores coming out in H2.. :o)

[tigerbythetail] 25/4/2024 10:58

PlatHunter - "better to stay silent and be suspected a fool, than to open your mouth and confirm it."
What Lowtrawler is describing is pretty much the standard treatment a distressed company can expect from its lenders. My own belief is that HUM's equity is likely worthless, or very nearly so - but I'm not certain of that yet. Anyhow, Coris Bank will decide HUM's fate, one way or another.

[plat hunter] 25/4/2024 10:52

Ha ha ah PMSL @Lowt... What fantasy planet are you visiting this week, it sounds awesome?

[tigerbythetail] 25/4/2024 10:31

Don't forget they likely owe money to Corica, and it's not included in these numbers!

[tigerbythetail] 25/4/2024 10:30

Lots of red flags and significant omissions in this morning's RNS.
In short, HUM's fate is entirely in the hands of Coris Bank. They could declare HUM to be in default and seize the assets. They could insist on a dilutive equity raise and a management clear-out. Or they could go on "being supportive".
Why they would go on "being supportive" of this siht-show is beyond me, but all things are possible, I suppose.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/4/2024 09:40

#Lowtrawler, Coris are supportive, and that is the case until they are not, this is a pivotal quarter now (Q2), it will be tight and we need to be cash flow positive, or neutral worst case with debt repayments, but it can be done, the share price will offer an insight into who believes in the progress made (or not).. :o)

Banks are ruthless you re absolutely correct, I loathe them, sharks, but Coris have been through the Yanfolila build, now through Kouroussa, they are likely to be keeping an eye on Dugbe as they are in with a strong possibility of funding it IF/WHEN it moves to a build so look longer term, not just a near term win, that is a poor strategy (generally)..

[lowtrawler] 25/4/2024 09:31

Here's an anecdote from my own personal experience in refinancing a distressed business. The business in question identified it was going to breach its bank covenants and so contacted the lender. The lender demanded the business sell 3 of its major business units and provide a full financial plan on the remaining business. The lender took all proceeds from the business sales, which fully repaid the debt, and set fees for the deal equal to the next 5 years projected profitability based on the financial plan. The business survived but shareholders were left being asset stripped and without any hope of return for 5 years. Hence, even when lenders know they are unlikely to suffer a loss, they tend to milk a distressed situation to their advantage at the expense of the shareholders.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/4/2024 09:24

#Polaris, exactly why I did my numbers just now, we burnt around USD20M cash, so as I said Kouroussa needs to be cash generative this quarter to make up the shortfall from the expected Q2 Yanfolila earnings, it is do-able, but very tight and we need to be getting stuck into the 3/4 g/t ores about now or early May, which we are told is a work in progress..

[lowtrawler] 25/4/2024 09:16

All shareholders know about the Coris position is a standard response that they remain supportive. Until there is an announcement on a deal with Coris, the impact to shareholders is unknown. An announced deal with Coris is unlikely until the Corica situation gets resolved as the required financing will not be known until then.

From a share price perspective, it is the Coris deal that matters.

[nickwild] 25/4/2024 09:08

How much has Hum paid Corica since notice of failure to meet contract last year and how much is still owing according to Corica?

Do we know how much ETASI has been moving with its fleet and what proportion that is of the required feed for commercial operation now high grade material being mined?