Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 19/4/2024 13:25

Would Opex be 20M if they are not paying Corica?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/4/2024 12:43

#Backmarker, no I expect debt to peak here at Q1-2024, our OPEX is around USD20M a month, with less than that coming in..

[backmarker] 19/4/2024 11:26

Does anyone think that the Q1 update will indicate that the debt mountain has gone down - even if only by a little bit.

[backmarker] 19/4/2024 11:25

Point taken, we are not yet at commercial production at K.

[tigerbythetail] 19/4/2024 11:06

Hi Lowtrawler!
That's a fair enough comment.
I'd add that Corica - who (forget it not) are a respected mining contractor who successfully work for much larger miners than HUM - are also an important player in the denouement of this tragicomedy. HUM won't be able to simply bilk them and brush them away; life's not like that.
Just on Dugbe, since posters on the other thread are bigging up its theoretical value again:
There are lots of gold mining "projects" out there to choose from if you have a few hundred million bucks lying around and you believe in gold. Jurisdiction is absolutely critical to how appealing any particular mine project is.
Some risks of Liberia:
Hilly tropical jungle and bad roads, no power supply, no trained workforce, outbreaks of tropical diseases such as Ebola, utterly corrupt government, country recovering from civil war with criminality rampant.
All this for a not great IRR (return)! Wouldn't any sane investor choose to put their money somewhere else?

[desha] 19/4/2024 11:04

backmarker

Kouroussa may have been 'built on time' but it is still not commercially producing 6 months+ after first gold pour! It's not enough for Betts & Co to have met their targets, as the targets were inadequate from a shareholder return perspective.

[plat hunter] 19/4/2024 10:44

Problem is.. One of those producing mines has a 5k AISC

[lowtrawler] 19/4/2024 10:33

Sword77, Coris are the elephant in the room. Until there is an announcement of how Coris intend to act, it is impossible to know where shareholders stand. A Western bank would already have announced a debt for equity swap wiping out the shareholders. It is still possible for Coris to do the same. The current share price anticipates Coris being more supportive and simply extending finance on commercial terms while relaxing covenants.

I don't know what position Coris will take and nor do any other BB posters.

[backmarker] 19/4/2024 10:13

Don't be so pessimistic. We are getting there. All these banana skins are now par for the course. We have 2 operating mines and the prospect of a third, even better mine, within a couple of years.Whatever you think of Betts and the board nobody has disputed they did it on time on budget. And I believe it's still possible they may yet be able to hit the production and debt reduction targets for 2024.

[plat hunter] 19/4/2024 08:53

Thursdays are popular for updates but when was the last time we had a good one 😁

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/4/2024 08:33

Thursdays seem to be a very popular day for updates, I would not read too much into it, very much looking forward to the news here, see where we are for Q1 and ramp up going forward with our new support companies adding capacity..

Sooo close the pay dirt and 10,000 ounces a month.. :o)

[sword77] 19/4/2024 07:49

If that is correct what you are saying, we will be fine and Coris Bank will not cause trouble and most likely move repayment in the future and give enough time for a further capital raise if needed

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/4/2024 07:20

Thursday 25th, and at last we can see where we are on ounces poured/sold, and the road map to bringing Kouroussa back up to speed..

[backmarker] 19/4/2024 07:18

I think it's Thursday.

[plat hunter] 19/4/2024 07:13

Q1 on Monday then

[borderterrier1] 18/4/2024 21:39

Sword77 Because he's reluctant to admit he's made a big mistake like some of us have? In other words, throwing good money after bad?

[sword77] 18/4/2024 21:01

Guys explain to me why the boss of Coris Bank should kill his own private investment?

[borderterrier1] 18/4/2024 20:35

Hi TBTT I agree with your observation that Coris bank seem to be pretending everything is honky dory here because it isn't and it hasn't been for many years. As you know my attempts to logically analyze this have been increasingly futile so I appreciate your comments. IMO Betts should have been removed years ago and the shareholders are now paying a hefty price. Unfortunately, too late was the cry and not much chance of improvement now.

[tigerbythetail] 18/4/2024 20:15

Long term for HUM shareholders depends on HUM surviving the short term threats to the business, which ain't no easy task from here...
If Betts still has the full confidence of Coris Bank (and if so, in God's name, why?!?) then another equity placement could buy HUM more time to get Kouroussa into meaningful production. That would be the best outcome for HUM shareholders from here, though doubtless the share price would fall because of the extra dilution. Something is always better than nothing!
But in all truth Coris Bank should just call in the debt (presumably claiming covenant breaches), take over the assets, appoint competent management, make a deal with Corica to restart work, and salvage what they can from the mess. I'm puzzled why they haven't done this already. What are they waiting for? Are they afraid to admit the scale of their potential losses? Do they prefer to pretend that everything is OK rather than face up to reality?
As for the assets themselves, I think Yanfolila is pretty much a bust from here. Not only is Mali now a positively hostile jurisdiction but who seriously believes HUM can mine underground profitably when they've failed so miserably at the much easier task of mining open pit. Kouroussa could yield meaningful cash-flows for a few years, especially at current gold prices, but the high strip ratios need careful monitoring. Selling Dugbe will remain a challenge, because the list of reasons against doing business in Liberia is dauntingly long whatever the gold price.

[borderterrier1] 18/4/2024 15:11

Hi TBTT But, long-term, IYO what will all this mean for Hummingbird shareholders? Can anyone predict that with any certainty? Maybe a change of ownership is what's needed here?

[tigerbythetail] 18/4/2024 14:38

Hi BT and Kinwah!
Cliff erosion is a good metaphor for Mali - and indeed for Niger and BF. To be honest, I'm surprised the moment of crisis has taken this long to arrive.
Mali's military rulers need money, not least to pay the army in their fight against the various rebel groupings, and they need the Russians' knowhow and tech (and merciless ruthlessness) to help in that fight. Taking over the gold mines is the quick and easy (and popular, and pretty much only) option for them to get the cash they need.
Wagner will run the mines for them, employing Russian specialists to do so. Same as in the CAR. They might well do a better job than Betts & Co.!
It should also be noted that Guinea is far from stable. And that the locals around Kouroussa don't like Hummingbird one bit. So that's a tinderbox as well.
All told, attacking Gaddafi's Libya wasn't such a great idea in retrospect. It's set off a disastrous chain of events for Western interests in the Sahel.
And, no, there is no appetite for intervention from the UN (or ECOWAS) here. Nigeria / ECOWAS backed out of invading Niger after the coup there, when they had every justification for taking action. If they didn't do it then, they won't do it now.
Western mines in Mali / Niger / BF are sitting ducks. Property rights grow out of a barrel of a gun there now.

[1knocker] 18/4/2024 13:43

I don't think anyone is looking to commit troops to peace keeping duties in Mali (or probably anywhere else) at present. Certainly not unless and until the Middle East cools down.

[jedi k] 18/4/2024 13:32

Gold may be a big winner if BOJ intervenesGold rose $346/oz in wake of last BOJ interventionGold had gained $458/oz by time USD index stopped falling in July 2023If BOJ sells USD it will undermine a safe asset while sparking volatilityThe need for an alternate safe asset may boost demand for goldSimilar rise this year would take gold tantalisingly close to $3000/oz#Those who think BOJ intervenes soon should sell dollars...