Howden Joinery Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 11/1/2015 18:59

Cheers alphatrend - roll on Feb :-)

CR

[allstar4eva] 09/1/2015 21:10

lol I think it's the android app!

[redartbmud] 09/1/2015 20:51

all

Looks like you have eaten too much Grg - it's repeating on you!

red

[allstar4eva] 09/1/2015 20:44

This feels like GRG not too long ago. Simply has to rise strongly after that update. Looking for a very good run up to results.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 09/1/2015 18:21

Hi Guys

Yes, when you really think about it, the pe is totally pointless and reveals nothing unless you consider the debt/cash pile.

Also the ROE esp when you have a large pile of cash.

Joel Greenblatt uses the enterprise value when valuing co.s and JG brings home the bacon!!

Great company here IMO!!

[essentialinvestor] 09/1/2015 16:54

Very valid point Matt, I add net debt to market cap and recalculate PER
on that basis, also allow for any pension deficit if that looks on the high side.

[thorpematt] 09/1/2015 16:37

See now there's contradiction there really.

Most listed companies have plenty of debt and therefore when you strip out this debt you realise that you Price to earnings ratio is somewhat higher than you thought. Companies with no debt (or indeed surplus cash) when you make an adjustment you reduce your PER.

On the one hand the article recognises the cash, on the other it fails to recognise that a)great companies warrant large PER (even Ben Graham said that) and that b) the real PER for forward earnings compared to the wider market makes this pretty cheap.

Apart from that there's some good stuff in the article to be fair.

[essentialinvestor] 09/1/2015 14:48

Day traded some today, out on the 13.30 pop, not something I usually do
but stuck in waiting for a delivery (

It's a quality company, just imv.

[cockneyrebel] 09/1/2015 13:56

Firming up

[mike740] 09/1/2015 13:29

Tempus in today's Times:

Howden Joinery Group

Sales in 2014 + 11% like-for-like

Howden Joinery has been doing exactly what the big supermarkets are being pilloried for doing — opening new branches throughout the recession. In Howden’s case, though, this has turned out to be the right strategy.

At the end of 2008 it had 450 stores. Today, after 30 were added last year, it has 589. This means its model of supplying builders with all they need is able to reach more of a market that is growing at 3 to 4 per cent a year.

In addition, those new stores take seven years or so to reach their full potential, so they are only now selling fully into that improving market. Howden put out an unscheduled trading update that upgraded forecasts for 2014 for the second time in two months.

The company saw a 10.6 per cent rise in like-for-like UK sales in the ten months to November 1. This sales increase continued into the traditionally quieter next two months; the stores were unusually busy even in the Christmas week.

So total sales were up by 14 per cent in 2014 to £1.07 billion. This compares with £768 milllion, if you take out sales through the defunct MFI chain, in 2008.

The next question is what Howden will do with the estimated £180 million or more of cash that has piled up. It has indicated, without specifying how, that this may be returned to shareholders.

The shares, up 19p at 411¼p, have advanced by a quarter since I recommended them in May. They sell on 16 times earnings, which suggests no reason to chase, despite that expected shareholder return.

My advice Avoid
Why Shares have performed well but good news is in price

[cockneyrebel] 09/1/2015 11:54

Agree allstar4eva - Belgium looks to have a lot of potential too imo - not just expansion into Belgium but as a hub to the rest of Europe as MSLH are doing imo.

There was someone selling ahead of the trading update this week and I think they've been selling into the news. When they are cleared the market will gobble these up imo.

26p eps for the year ahead looks an easy ask imo. A PE of 15 for a highly cash generative stock with net cash of £180m+ and a PEG of 0.5 or less is just too much of a bargain for the market to miss imo - watch it see imo :-)

CR

[allstar4eva] 09/1/2015 11:49

might fill yesterday's gap prior to moving on...

[allstar4eva] 09/1/2015 11:35

I'm not sure the market has really appreciated the potential effect of Howden's trials with selling granite worktops. These worktops can easily add 50% or more to the price of the kitchen. If this offering is rolled out to all stores revenue could increase significantly.

[nigelmoat] 09/1/2015 10:03

MM's love to move this share up and down. Has for me become a good day trading stock with the backdrop of a solid growing turnover and profit with plenty of cash.

[mike740] 09/1/2015 08:26

Underperform.........

09 Jan 2015 Howden Joinery HWDN Jefferies International Underperform 416.90 411.20 - 280.00 Retains

[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2015 19:22

Been looking at the broker upgrades - looks like 22p+ now being for the year just ended.

Got to mean these will do 26p eps next year imo.

Earnings up 200% in 6 years and near 100% in 3 years, over 20% growth per annum compound over 6 years.

Too cheap imo especially with £180+m net cash imo

New closing high tonight.

CR

[bigbigdave] 08/1/2015 17:32

Howden Joinery smashes forecasts (from iii)
Only a few days ago our resident stockpicker Edmond Jackson suggested that Howden Joinery was ripe for further upside if February's results confirmed the robust outlook. Well, positive news has come rather earlier than expected and shares in the kitchen supplier have indeed rallied. However, with the upgrade cycle apparently intact, there could be plenty more to come.

In a surprise news announcement, Howden said the good performance reported in November had continued through the final month of 2014. As a result, full-year adjusted pre-tax profit will now be much better than the £172-£179 million being pencilled in by analysts who have now scrambled to upgrade forecasts.
UBS now reckons Howden made £185 million last year and has ramped up estimates for 2015 from £194.3 million to £201 million.
Howden said sales at its UK depots hit £1.07 billion, up 14%, or 11% on a same-depot basis. Gross margin improved, too, and the company's 30 new depots have done well.

When Edmond tipped Howden this week, the shares were 407p. Up by 7% Thursday, they now change hands for 421p. But they still look attractive. There's high operational gearing, a modest forward price/earnings ratio of around 17, sizeable cash pile and prospective dividend yield of about 5%.

Says UBS:

Our DCF based price target rises to £5.20 from £5.03 reflecting our higher forecasts. The share is currently on a P/E of 16.6x15E which we see as attractive in the context of peer group leading margins, attractive ROCE and strong cash generation which could see cash returns to shareholders in 2015.

[bigbigdave] 08/1/2015 17:29

Howden Joinery brightens profit outlook
FTSE 250 group says annual revenues have broken through £1bn for first time

[jeffcranbounre] 08/1/2015 15:33

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[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2015 15:06

Good press tomorrow imo.

Perhaps a Telegraph tip at the weekend again too?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2015 12:03

will close on the highs today imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2015 11:10

Agree re the chart interceptor.

CR