Hostelworld Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 19/2/2020 11:40

Think the share price reflecting that currently, more important for this company is its Roadmap for Growth strategy, sure China plays a part, but let’s not forget that the world does not revolve around China for travellers, there’s the Americas, Southern Hemisphere, South East Asia, etc. Excluded Africa, as having flown there with nowhere to stay, it is the place you follow your nose, not really backpacking territory in the normal sense!

[thomshrike] 19/2/2020 11:33

We continue to see a streak of companies disclosing a significant negative impact from the coronavirus and the share price rises anyway. E.g. Adidas today reporting a 85% drop on China activity and the share price is up.
Hopefully when Hostelworld reports...

[onjohn] 18/2/2020 19:35

ff, it said.

Holiday Inn owner InterContinental Hotels Group has closed or partially closed 160 out of its 470 hotels in mainland China and said it expects a short-term hit from the outbreak.

[tole] 17/2/2020 16:20

I've bought a few here on the drop

[masurenguy] 15/2/2020 16:23

Last years results and strategy update due in just over 2 weeks, on 4 March.

[john09] 14/2/2020 16:41

Not a bad close considering

[thomshrike] 14/2/2020 12:51

Market is assuming that the impact to the travel business will be significant but temporary, similar to other epidemics in the past. If that is the case, the impact on the valuation of travel companies would generally be small (see my comment on sensitivity analysis for HSW above). The overnight performance of the EXPE share price shows that people will not necessarily stay put until the situation is fully clarified, instead they will take action much earlier than that.

[bookbroker] 14/2/2020 12:36

Kind of surprised really, if that is the case as regards China, u’d the discount airlines would be vulnerable. If people are going to panic then global tourism, particularly cruises where there are a lot of strangers in close proximity to one another, is going to take a hit. People will just stay put until the heat dies down, China is not being transparent because they are trying to prevent precise info. leaking out, even though it is, they manufactured this virus and then can resolve it, otherwise it will be goodbye Vienna to the communist state!

[thomshrike] 14/2/2020 12:03

Last night Expedia came out with numbers. They now expect a 30-40m hit to their Q1 ebitda related to the coronavirus. To put that into context, FY ebitda consensus is 2.28bn. The stock is up >10% in pre-market.

[john09] 14/2/2020 11:34

Some support around this level. This China thing has really put the brakes on this one. Ahead of results and strategy day it had some momentum which is lost ftb

[bookbroker] 11/2/2020 12:25

Because most are German, and they are still escaping to the sun of the Med., and nicking all the loungers before sunrise!

[thomshrike] 11/2/2020 11:34

Interestingly today tour operator TUI reported no softness in bookings related to the coronavirus.

[bookbroker] 10/2/2020 16:46

Look, think the name, that is the value, screw Ncv1 or whatever it is known as, either world travel will collapse or it will recover and the world goes on! But the brand name is the best in the business!

[masurenguy] 10/2/2020 16:23

Sensible analysis thomshrike.

[thomshrike] 10/2/2020 16:14

Some sensitivity analysis. Let's assume that:
- the virus results in a 5% decline on HSW global bookings during FY 2020 (I think we can all agree this sounds very extreme), with no impact on 2021 and onwards, as the pandemic ends.
- the bookings decline flows directly to the bottom line, with no cost offsets except for lower taxes.
Then the value loss for HSW would be c. 3m GBP.

That amounts, even at today's reduced share price to c. 2.5% of the market cap of the company.
Whereas since the beginning of the virus story the stock has already declined more than 10%.

[nw99] 10/2/2020 13:59

Stay out till the worst of the virus passes

[onjohn] 10/2/2020 13:56

Lots of cancellations to hit profits

[bookbroker] 10/2/2020 10:51

To be honest, looking at the cost of staying in a hostel, the prices are pretty cheap, so the customer deposit likely low, but I appreciate that coronavirus could just affect travel in general, it is about positive and negative sentiment as a whole. And that will apply to any global entity, but investing is about the future, not the now!

[onjohn] 10/2/2020 09:47

yes this kind of stuff why hSW bookings will decline

[nerja] 10/2/2020 09:37

It’s about sentiment as well , how many for a free cruise!

[thomshrike] 10/2/2020 09:36

Company margins are similar across regions. Asia is lower ABV than average.

[thomshrike] 10/2/2020 09:34

Just putting those 272 hostels in China into context: Hostelworld works with 36.000 properties.

[nobilis] 10/2/2020 09:33

read last year results said Asia was high margin