Hostelworld Share Discussion Threads

[abarclay] 11/11/2019 08:26

the train is leaving the station

[nw99] 11/11/2019 08:24

Just a bought another small lot

[john09] 11/11/2019 08:15

I’m in

[nw99] 11/11/2019 08:04

Bought some HsW

[nw99] 10/11/2019 20:24

Totally agree

[john09] 09/11/2019 12:00

1. You shouldn’t post this. Subscribers pay for the information
2. You’re misleading people it doesn’t say strong buy it’s not in the main tip section it’s in an ideas section and it says “I am a buyer”

[jltaylor1001] 09/11/2019 11:39

Featured as a strong buy in SCSW this month .

[masurenguy] 02/11/2019 00:39

Cheers thomstrike - this link takes you there directly.

[thomshrike] 01/11/2019 20:11

hxxps://hiddenvalue.blog/2019/10/31/hostelworld-group-plc-lsehsw/

[woozle1] 28/10/2019 14:01

I suspect that Capital has given up waiting. The PM may have an earnings momentum strategy, which is properly absent here (and may never return). There's been serious underinvestment in IT to boost earnings and there is the risk of irreparable damage to the business because in the meantime booking.com and AirBnB have taken market share and have the money to outspend HSW in marketing and IT. The bear case argument is compelling made stronger by the absence of insider buying.

However, this is a strong brand and my focus group of two students who use hostels tell me that HSW is the go-to app. It's dirt cheap and there seem to be an easy fixes with API connectivity to the channel partners and improved marketing (the new guy from ASSOS should help). I also think that the business has strategic value to someone like Expedia.

HSW could go either way.

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[thomshrike] 28/10/2019 13:50

Thanks.
Just for clarity, I wouldn't undermine the importance of the change in fund manager to Capital Group's decision to sell. Surely correlation does not imply causation, however (i) the manager of the fund who held the HSW stake was indeed the one that got dismissed; (ii) the disposal took place in the exact same week as his dismissal.

[woozle1] 28/10/2019 13:34

thomshrike is right. Institutions behave in the same way as individuals and are prone to same emtions: exhuberance and disgust. EV/EBITDA of 3.5 times is objectively cheap for any business; especially if earnings are flat and there is free optionality on the cash that could be used to buy earnings accretive businesses. All this is different from the direction of the s/p. That said, I'm happy to catch the falling knife as over time that is the best way to make good returns.
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[davr0s] 28/10/2019 13:27

And it's a matter of opinion that they are attractively prices. I sold out much higher but not remotely interested in stepping in front of a downtrending stock

[thomshrike] 28/10/2019 13:12

There are many reasons why Capital Group may have sold: (i) because they do not believe in the turnaround story and expect the business to continue to deteriorate; (ii) because they have internal rules for executing a stop-loss and key levels were triggered; (iii) because that position was managed by the fund manager who was recently fired after his wrongdoings were uncovered by BBC and his firing triggered automatic liquidation of his holdings. My feeling is that reality is a mix of all those 3.

Obviously there is a buyer for every seller and you have funds like Miton, LHC or Fidelity significantly increasing their positions at these levels.

The steep share price decline was a function of several factors: (i) business deterioration related with under-investment in the underlying core IT platform under previous ownership; (ii) liquidation of a 22% holding by Woodford; (iii) (in case you are looking at un-adjusted share prices) high dividend payments.

[ny boy] 28/10/2019 12:11

Why would Capital Group sell their entire 10% stake, if these are attractively priced?

Why did they fall from 400p a year or two ago to nearly 100p?

[rustytrombone1] 28/10/2019 12:04

Most Bookings.com listings for hostels don't require credit card details or a deposit which would result in a lot of booking no shows. Why would hostels list on Booking.com if they are put at a disadvantage with lost revenue to people not turning up?

Would love to know the data of no shows for booking.com vs hostelworld

This also puts them at risk as someone (a competitor) could make fake bookings and frustrate the hostel owners with lots of no shows. They then decide not to list on booking.com. I wonder if hostelworld has thought of this?

[masurenguy] 28/10/2019 08:12

HSW have a well-established presence in this market, they are profitable, very cashflow positive with a strong balance sheet that has no debt and £25m in the bank. They are the market leader in the hostel segment with over 17,000 hostels in their database and over 150m website hits a year. At the current price, which significantly undervalues the business, they must be an attractive target for other synergistic predators and any acceptable bid should produce an upside in excess of 65%.

[topvest] 28/10/2019 07:47

It does look good value. I think they are losing ground to AirBNB and Bookings.com though. That's the problem really.

[speedsgh] 26/10/2019 16:15

Additional volume on Weds was likely due at least in part to the brief write-up in The Times Tempus column...



...Hostelworld’s share price, up 1¼p, or 1.1 per cent, at 110p, suggests that investors are waiting for more evidence of the recovery. Changing hands for only eight times Shore Capital’s forecast earnings and for a yield of 9.3 per cent, the return in the meantime is very generous.
ADVICE Hold
WHY Sensible recovery plan will take time but shares offer rewards

[hybrasil] 25/10/2019 15:03

Bought some today

[thomshrike] 23/10/2019 15:07

I hear that two sellers that had been there for a while have now been cleared.

[woozle1] 23/10/2019 14:31

It does look like an overhang clear.
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[sphere25] 23/10/2019 11:54

Some interesting exchanges this morning. A potential short term oversold play in the making. Watching on the monitor.

EDIT: Far too much buying volume coming in to ignore so have been buying here. Sellers look to have been cleared down at 110 and the stock on offer has completely dried up with small purchases now shifting the price. Chart is breaking out also so bodes well. Let's see if we can crack on from here.

[woozle1] 15/10/2019 14:44

Capital has a decent size operation here in London.
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