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[spectoacc] 18/1/2024 07:07

Oh I bet you do Lynne. I bet you do.

"Lynne Fennah said: "I recognise and share investors' frustration at the events which have unfolded over the last 14 months and the deterioration in the performance of the Company."

[flyer61] 09/1/2024 09:48

Spec...take alook at Allsops EXTRA resi auction that went live yesterday.

Few up your neck of the woods.

[williamcooper104] 08/1/2024 09:03

That's true; alverium/HOME is my trigger

[flyer61] 08/1/2024 08:55

Steady on WC104....very unusual for you to swear!!

[terminator101] 08/1/2024 07:10

Another monthly reminders that this really is a great big steaming pile of pish.

12% of rent invoices collected. Portfolio value reduced by half and the debt mountain remains enormous. Plus cash is running out.

[spectoacc] 08/1/2024 07:08

Monthly update as grim reading as always.

"Rent collection including arrears representing 12% of rent invoiced during the month."

Including the Mears portfolios?? Strewth. Actual rent collection, ie of the old portfolio, must be next to nothing. They're not doing nearly enough to recover arrears from the fraudsters IMO.

[spectoacc] 02/1/2024 12:22

The fine would be on shareholders so agreed.

Former Alvarium in particular.

[flyer61] 02/1/2024 09:04

Not bothered about the fine Spec...want to see the directors made an example of.

No holding.

[spectoacc] 02/1/2024 08:50

Thanks @nexusltd, more behind it than my long-held "10-20p", but interesting it comes out in same range.

Feel the Mears portfolio deserves a reasonable rating - they'll be good on maintenance/payments, ie a decent tenant.

The eventual FCA fine needs factoring in too, albeit not remotely imminent. Takes them years.

[gpvxxx] 02/1/2024 08:41

@nexusltd: thanks for the data and calculations. I'm just not sure whether you shouldn't have annualized and then discounted cash flows to yield a DCF. With i ~ 7% and monthly CF of ~ 600k this would yield a NAV of roughly 100m or 13.7p. Applying your proposed reduuction of 45% then results in relisting price of 6p.
Still high enough for such a scam.

[nexusltd] 29/12/2023 22:47

A finger-in-the-air share price estimate when it re-lists.

The data as provided on 30/09/23:
Number of issued shares: 790,570,465
Gross Asset Value: 412,900,000
Term Loans: (216,200,000)
Cash in hand: 14,000,000

Guesstimates:
Expenses: AEW fees, advisors etc.: (600,000/mnth)
Interest on term loans (2%p.a.): (360,000/mnth)
Interest on term loans (7%p.a.): 1,200,000/mnth)
Rental income: 600,000/mnth

Net cash flow to 30th November: c. (360,000 /mnth)
Net cash flow from 1st December: c. (1,200,000 /mnth)

Evaluation for a potential January 2024 relisting:
NAV = 412.9mn-216.2mn+14mn-(2*0.36mn+1*1.2mn) =208.8mn
NAV/sh = 26.4p

AEW is a well-respected manager, with experience in dealing with cigarette butt assets, limiting the discount to NAV. Guess discount c. 45%, relisting @ 14.5p/share.

[williamcooper104] 21/12/2023 18:27

Yeah - I wouldn't like to be in their shoes Good reminder why being a non-exec isn't worth the risk

[flyer61] 21/12/2023 18:04

WC look forward to them explaining to the insurers why they need to claim…

[williamcooper104] 21/12/2023 15:23

That'll be covered by their D&O cover

[flyer61] 21/12/2023 15:06

And given the board are probably in need of significant legal advice no wonder they haven't fallen on their sword. Someone has to pay for it all and it won't be them.

[williamcooper104] 21/12/2023 14:37

They can't prevent outright fraud It's more a question of what's done after to hold those responsible to accountUnfortunately the ambulance chasers are the only ones doing anything about it The board are hopelessly conflicted on litigation

[cousinit] 21/12/2023 14:11

What more could you ask of the FCA? I'm sure the KID detailed all the risks clearly for retail investors...

[triskelion] 21/12/2023 14:04

"But what’s it say about the board and Alvarium?"

Also what does it say about e.g. the FCA? They seem to have resources to consult and possibly implement codices of "positive discrimination" (Orwellian) policies, but do they have the resources to liaise with investigators of possible misfeasance?

[spectoacc] 21/12/2023 06:57

Excellent article. Perfectly sums up everything we've been saying for so long.

I'd emphasise a little more the fact HOME paid double or more the price for property bought sometimes only weeks earlier; that some of the bad actors existed stage left early on, claiming eg ill health; and the 12 months rent that was gifted out of capital to the fake-o CIC's.

Otherwise, essential reading on the scandal.

10-20p, depending on the Capex to keep the properties that remain liveable.