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[cruelladeville] 02/10/2023 15:23

As usual, small share holders take the shafting. Low single digit pennies or nothing left for share holders. The alleged fraudsters likely just walk away.

[spectoacc] 02/10/2023 10:35

There's at least a chance now that there's nothing left. The first sale got 39.4% of purchase price, and they were meant to be the worst properties.

Last week's got 32%, selling 137 (ie many more).

If there's say 800 to go to repay the debt, I can't see achieved sale price rising - fewer and fewer with the cash to buy, more and more sales saturating the market, in steadily worse condition (another winter empty/squatted/unheated).

Add in the Board's costs, AEW's fees, fines, legal costs, the number of advisors and on-the-ground managing co's. And rent collection of 3%.

Could be left with a Mears-rented portfolio bringing in say £1.5m pa, and yes - no debt. If Lloyds/Scot Widows did roll some over, it wouldn't be at the previous interest rate or for the previous term - those loans are blown.

Heck, it might all be fine - a third of cost price over the whole portfolio might leave the rump of a co. But whether it's 40% or 25% overall is the difference between something and nothing IMO. A week ago I'd have said "something".

I look forward to the day when HOME stops surprising me to the downside.

[williamcooper104] 02/10/2023 09:29

The upside is that they get enough capital to fund refurbishments and then re-let them to a proper covenantIt's likely that Lloyds would roll some debt into that

[williamcooper104] 02/10/2023 09:06

Looks like 5-15p - may need to reconsider my 10p mark

[wskill] 02/10/2023 08:10

Where is the duty of care by directors surely they have at least visited some properties during their tenure the very simplest of checking would have found it was a scam .Is there not a body that checks on directors behaviour these actions by directors should not be allowed to continue.

[williamcooper104] 02/10/2023 07:58

Basically they are collecting rent from Mears and that's about it Amazing

[williamcooper104] 02/10/2023 07:53

From memory the net debt was £100-120m

[flyer61] 02/10/2023 07:00

Wonder what the fees will end up being as a percentage of assets.

Those drive by valuations…..love to know the rinse on those..

[spectoacc] 02/10/2023 06:35

Got to assume all of the £216m debt is going to need paying off - sales raised c.£4.8m & £22.8m, the latter at 32% of the price paid. I'm leaning more towards @Wc104's outcome.

[cc2014] 02/10/2023 06:31

yeah and the 3% = £0.1m for the month.

[spectoacc] 02/10/2023 05:56

7-8% over LIBOR :)

Good point re fund raise. HOME clearly wasn't meant to collapse so soon - but collapse it was always going to. If you pay double market value for property that is swiftly managed into the ground by some highly dubious CIC's, you've only a few years.

The Venice chap with his 12 month kickbacks implies the CIC's were meant to keep everything going for a couple of years - witness the sub-letting to Mears at rents lower than the rent to be paid to HOME.

Anyway, I've said enough - will all come out in the wash eventually. But yes: the FCA will fine the co AKA shareholders, they always do.

[williamcooper104] 01/10/2023 18:17

Really hope the FCA fine Alverium and possibly the BoD personally (they ought to have insurance for that) rather than putting more pain on the innocent party in all this - the shareholder/mugs That they have a strong balance sheet was only because they'd only recently raised equity before Victory attacked and so hadn't managed to spend much of it Added to AEW wanting the fees Widows will be very keen not to be seen pulling the plug and why bother when AEW are doing, at shareholders expanse, what they'd be paying an administrator to do - another lender might do so or at least reprice the loan up to 7-8%

[spectoacc] 01/10/2023 13:07

It's only the low gearing - and the fact 7% of tenants were still rent-paying - that will save them IMO. What's left unsold above that 7%, and after the debt has been repaid, is likely to need some serious CapEx IMO.

Insolvency = the end of AEW's juicy fees, so can't see that happening.

Be interesting to see if the FCA fine the co eventually too - as many commented at the time, the RNS's coming out were beyond ridiculous. "Nothing to see here/we're collecting 100% of rent" etc.

(Oops, no we're not. Ah, now we're collecting 7%. Now we've put AEW and a 31-yr-old in charge to sort the rent collection. Ah, it's still at 7%).

[williamcooper104] 01/10/2023 12:39

When you're selling assets to buy your interest you are in the "interests of all stakeholders" territory Otherwise known as the zone of insolvency

[flyer61] 01/10/2023 09:35

Looks like it is being run as if it is already in bankruptcy. Just the 'model' has changed. Name change...count on it.

[williamcooper104] 01/10/2023 07:52

If only DGI9 had HOMEs balance sheet

[spectoacc] 01/10/2023 07:20

I think there'll be something left, mainly because debt was low, and they spent c.£900m originally. Can see AEW playing the long game - dump enough at c.1/3rd cost to cover fees, running costs, repay Scot Widows, then keeping what remains listed, to give them something to manage/draw fees from.

It's all very WPCT/SUPP/INOV-esque, where Schroders took on Woodford's basket case IT and continued to run it into the ground - whilst getting amply rewarded.

Doubtless a name-change will be next on the cards.

[cruelladeville] 30/9/2023 17:00

Death throws. Nothing will be left over for share holders after all the corporate vultures are fed.

[spectoacc] 30/9/2023 14:42

I'm still not 100% where the culpability is but even assuming the Board weren't directly involved with the looting (struggle to put it another way), they were more than remiss in continuing to issue RNS's denying allegations which in the full response, they basically confirmed. And like M&G and their continued buying, once the allegations were out it was a simple job to get on Google and prove some - we all did.

Why didn't the Board do that?

HOME been fascinating and still some way to run IMO. Next set of Allsops sales (beginning of November) should be interesting - the HOME houses I've been in so far have been beyond awful.

AEW are at least keeping it just about solvent - and keeping their fees rolling in. Can they keep a profitable rump of ESG'd and CapEx'd property I wonder..

[williamcooper104] 29/9/2023 19:02

Ideally the ambulance chasing lawyers ought to be stepped down as a new board sues all and sundry on behalf of shareholders But alas don't see that happening

[williamcooper104] 29/9/2023 19:01

Criminal charges always hard to prosecute; but surely there should be some decent civil damages - Alverium and the valuers