Hollywood Bowl Share Discussion Threads

[togglebrush] 21/10/2023 07:31

Interesting tip from Simply Wall Street for BOWL 21/10/23

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%
The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved.

2023 revenue forecast increased from UK£201.5m to UK£212.5m.
EPS estimate increased from UK£0.187 to UK£0.208 per share.
Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in the United Kingdom.
Consensus price target up from UK£3.51 to UK£3.62.

[mpage] 20/10/2023 12:11

Re is it an earnings beat?

The TS is all about sales, it didn't announce an earnings fig. That comes with the FY23 results in Dec.

If you read my note above (and agree with it then)you can see the co is implicitly saying that basic EPS won't be lower than 20.5p which is right in the middle of the range of broker estimates on the FT site.

I find it interesting to note that BOWL's reports are all about the free cash flow whereas Ten Entertainment focuses on earnings per share (basic and adjusted). But then it's margins look lower.

Anyone got any views on this?

[togglebrush] 20/10/2023 08:27

Extracts from Stockopedia 20/10/23... on rrading update:
There are not any broker notes, so I’m in the dark as to whether this is an earnings beat, or not?

Lots going on, with new sites, and refurbs, all self-funded from cashflow.

Net cash of £52.4m, plus undrawn £25 RCF.

Final divi of at least 7p. Stockopedia shows a forecast yield of 5.3%, very nice. Especially as the likelihood seems to be that future divis could continue increasing, as the business expands. Self-funding growth, and paying a 5.3% yield, impresses me a lot.

Paul’s opinion - I’m always GREEN on BOWL, because it’s a cracking business, reasonably priced, and always seems to trade well, regardless of macro factors.

Assuming no change in forecasts, then Stockopedia has it on a forward PER of only 12.0x - that seems smashing value, for a high margin, self-funded growth company, with plenty of net cash, that is paying a >5% dividend yield.

[marksp2011] 19/10/2023 11:54

Thanks mpage

Strange they didn't say that in the update :)

Sp seems to be range bound which is good for trading especially if you expect the range break to be northward

[mpage] 19/10/2023 11:45

Agree looked weird at first glance. But capex into the estate comes first. And ord dividend payout ratio now set at 50% PAT (see below from 202 annual report).

For FY2022 ord DPS 11.53p, basic EPS 21.91p = 52.6% payout ratio

From today's TS interim div 3.27p+ 7p min = 10.27p which, at 50% payout, implies minimum basic EPS of 20.5p for FY2023.

FT consensus of 7 analysts before today's TS: FY23 DPS 12.47p. FY23 EPS 20p (range 17.9p-21.9p)

My guess is they are being clear about ord div payouts and tilting the capital allocation policy to clarify trade off between capex and any special divs. Seems fair enough. It was a good TS - EBITDA growth expected to be ahead of market expectations.


P44 of the FY2022 annual report shows the overall capital allocation policy.

Dividend and capital allocation policy
The Board has declared a final dividend of
8.53 pence per share, based on an adjusted
profit after tax of £39.4m (adjusted earnings
per share of 23.07 pence).

Given the Group’s strong liquidity position,
the Board has reviewed its capital allocation
policy with the priorities for the use of cash
as follows:

• Capital investment into the existing
centres through an effective maintenance
and refurbishment programme

• Investments into new centre
opportunities, including expansion in both
the UK and Canada

• To pay and grow the ordinary dividend
every year with a payout of 50 per cent of
adjusted profit after tax

• Any excess cash will be available for
additional distribution to shareholders as
the Board deems appropriate, without
impacting on our ability for investment in
the growth of the business.

The Board believes that setting a proforma
net cash to Group adjusted EBITDA
pre-IFRS 162 ratio target (net cash ratio
target), provides a good guide for the future
allocation of surplus cash within the
business. The Board has set a net cash ratio
target of 0.5 times and will look for this target
to be achieved by the end of FY2025, as set
out below.

• End of FY2022 0.600X
• End of FY2023 0.570X
• End of FY2024 0.535X
• End of FY2025 0.500X

In line with this strategy, the Board has
proposed a special dividend of 3.0 pence
per share be paid to shareholders alongside
the ordinary dividend of 8.53 pence per
share, bringing the full year dividend to 14.53
pence per share.

[marksp2011] 19/10/2023 08:40

Maybe but it is a wierd thing to say.Because of our great performance our divi will be at least ........... So the minimum is 1.5p lower than last year

[togglebrush] 19/10/2023 08:30

Dividend Word play ???
'
The Group expects to declare a final ordinary dividend of at least 7 pence per share as a result of its strong financial performance and strategic execution
'
Last Year
'
XD 2nd February 2023 Paid 24th February 2023 8.53p Final
XD 2nd February 2023 Paid 24th February 2023 3.00p Special

[marksp2011] 19/10/2023 08:14

Interesting that they are forecasting a minimum divi that is a cut on last year

[togglebrush] 19/10/2023 07:23

Trading Statemeent OUT which, on first reading, looks excellent
'
Extracts .

Strong customer demand driving excellent financial performance

It has been fantastic to see so many families in our centres as they sought out fun, inclusive, affordable activities to keep their kids entertained throughout the year including during the unseasonal wet summer.

Total number of centres in the Group to 80 (UK: 71; Canada 9)

[marksp2011] 22/9/2023 06:52

More important the Trading statement due Week 2 in October. That will be the trailer for the annual results

[togglebrush] 21/9/2023 09:42

Upcoming Events for BOWL souce Stockopedia
Thursday, December 14th 2023
Full Year 2023 Hollywood Bowl Group PLC Earnings Release

[marksp2011] 20/9/2023 17:58

We'll, that was nice ?

[johnv] 20/9/2023 12:20

TEG results out today, not inspiring.

[marksp2011] 20/9/2023 11:40

This is wierd

Little news, unremarkable volume and a 5% spike

Still my kids will be really happy thi is half of their JISAs for this year. The other half is in Kier from 64p

If their Dad had dome that with his SIPP he would be in Florida fishing

[togglebrush] 20/9/2023 09:54

Is Hollywood Bowl Group plc (LON:BOWL) Trading At A 28% Discount?
Simply Wall St
Tue, 19 September 2023 at 7:59 am BST
In this article:

Extracts

BOWL.L
+4.13%

Key Insights
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Hollywood Bowl Group fair value estimate is UK£3.29

Hollywood Bowl Group's UK£2.38 share price signals that it might be 28% undervalued

The UK£3.42 analyst price target for BOWL is 4.1% more than our estimate of fair value

[yump] 20/9/2023 09:13

Marksp2011

That did the trick !

Must be a fair bit of demand to jump on no news. Where’s those rocket symbols ?

I think advfn have stopped the ability to hotlink images ;-)

[adamb1978] 19/9/2023 18:03

As long as TEG is 400p...:

[marksp2011] 19/9/2023 17:30

300p by Christmas

Just thought I would throw that one in. It is Advfn after all :)

[hedgehog 100] 02/9/2023 20:49

Tower Resources (TRP) 0.038p Market cap. £3.21M.

[blueball] 02/9/2023 20:42

U shape bowl on PYC.

[festario] 02/9/2023 20:25

Still IQAI guys, with a steep side about to form.

[chutes01] 02/9/2023 18:55

Plexus
POS

On way to 80p plus, see chart.

[festario] 23/8/2023 00:16

IQAI , most definitely

[chutes01] 22/8/2023 22:09

Plexus
POS

Ready to get back to 80p plus