HMV Share Discussion Threads

[grittar] 14/1/2013 12:32

1.15p uncrossing Auction. Heading for 1p

[graham2405] 14/1/2013 12:29

"I say they will survive and you say they will go bust. "

I never said they will go bust on Thursday..........when the covenants are tested is the likely date.

As for HMV closing stores, they can't, not without increasing the debt.

Prepack is the only way to reduce the store estate and give HMV ver 2.0 a new start.

All IMHO

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 12:26

What about closing loss making stores, build HMV online, suppliers would back them. Stock is cheaper than Amazon. Market Cap is £5m not bad for brand online.
Or sell all the property and just have online.

[jimrclark] 14/1/2013 12:22

Hey Monty,

I'm with you. I've taken a small punt on this.

Thursday will indicate whether it has a future or not but I actually think that it is 50:50 that HMV will survive. I don't think that they are utterly without hope yet.

The High St is under huge pressure because of the Amazons of this world but the answer is to build a good online presence. Physical shops, in the long run, will supplement online shops (rather than the other way around). HMV has a good online offering - much easier to use than Amazon's mess. Traffic online can shift very quickly... within hours. That's where HMV need to focus for this 1 month sale.

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 12:22

graham2405
I put my money where my mouth is, are you short then?

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 12:21

Lets wait and see what happens Thursday. I say they will survive and you say they will go bust.

[graham2405] 14/1/2013 12:19

Monty

No it is not in the price, the price is still over 1p per share.

The equity is currently -31p per share.

[graham2405] 14/1/2013 12:14

"I think click and collect a massive hit, order online and pick up 2 hours later. Same price and now cheaper than Amazon, HMV fighting back."

Excellent, but how can they possibly be making a profit on this?

As I have said before, they can only undercut Amazons prices if they can undercut Amazons costs.

Amazon runs a few large warehouses in the UK, HMV runs a few large warehouses and it runs well over 200 high street stores.

HMV is in a game that it can't win.

All IMHO

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 12:11

Yes we know all this, thats why the price has come down from 150p to 1.18p.
All in the price, its option money, I'm betting banks don't pull the plug.
Just having a small punt, if they go bust they go bust.

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 12:07

I think click and collect a massive hit, order online and pick up 2 hours later.
Same price and now cheaper than Amazon, HMV fighting back.

[graham2405] 14/1/2013 11:58

Monty probably hasn't read the covenant terms, those interest rates are huge, and thats without the penalty rates.

IF, they gain new covenant terms how high will they be then?

The banks are not stupid, why do you think one of them has already dumped debt on to a vulture fund.

Best case for HMV is a Jessops style D4E with shareholders lucky to get 0.1p a share, yes thats 10 shares a penny.

BUT, Banks took a big risk on Jessops, and how long did that D4E last, are they keen to take a punt on this?

So, Suppliers and Banks allowed Jessops to fold, whats different here?

Store closures, store closures cost, ever heard of lease commitments. Store closures will only increase debt, why do you think that HMV have stated no store closures. The can't afford to close stores, why?

If a store is losing £100k a year, and it will cost £500k to close it, HMV is better off keeping it going. Short term anyway, long term, it doesn't have a long term.

All IMHO

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 11:39

Suppliers and banks won't let this go bust,some store closures of course. Click and collect from a stores in 2 hours is a big hit, same price and cheaper than Amazon. The tide has turned online.

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 11:36

Of course its option money. I love a punt.

[goldfeverrush] 14/1/2013 11:35

Let the Captain go down with the sinking ship. Captain Monty 2013 R.I.P.

[grittar] 14/1/2013 11:28

MonteyhedgeYou are very brave longing this share. Have you seen the debt and the interest on the debt?

[grittar] 14/1/2013 11:18

can someone please remind me how much money HMV owe the banks?

[graham2405] 14/1/2013 11:17

"I would be a buyers at 1.18p."

You might get the chance to buy at less than 1p on Thursday.

If you really want to take a punt, wait until the figures get reported, they are virtually guaranteed to be bad.

Last year they reported figures on the 9th, this year the 17th, why delay the good news?

Also why no announcement of deferred covenant terms?

Why a 'month' long sale, clear the decks, raise cash quickly?

I am 'assuming' that the banks have baulked at new terms, hence HMV are desperately trying to meet the existing terms.

It's not an unreasonable assumption, hence we are bumping along at just over 1p.

Once confirmed..............you know the drill.

All IMHO

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 11:09

The foolish I see someone just sold 800,000 at 1.18p T10, are they mad. I would be a buyers at 1.18p.

[graham2405] 14/1/2013 11:07

"Its option money but a great contraion punt at these levels for the brave."

....or the foolish

[montyhedge] 14/1/2013 11:05

Short and very caught come Thursday. Its option money but a great contraion punt at these levels for the brave.
The cfd short punters, expect zero value,, but they could be seriously financially hit on Thursday.