Henderson Group Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 26/3/2013 14:09

Very good to see merger and acquisition and take-over activity in the sector.

The takeover by sector peer Schroders of smaller Cazenove Capital is interesting for sector back-drop.

The takeover gives bouyancy to the sector and M&A activity points to a sector which is potentially becoming more attractive to predators and a sector which may succumb to further M&A activity or takeover activity.

The takeover of Cazenove Capital may put the spotlight on other asset managers and may bring other opportunities into play.

The takeover will do no harm to the Henderson share price and may indeed highlight that this is an increasingly attractive sector as a whole. The M&A activity in the sector should help establish a firm floor to existing valuations of asset management groups.

The figures released in the last few days by Aberdeen Asset point to a great start for 2013.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 07/3/2013 15:10

The buoyant outlook in their full-year results by sector leader Schroders points the way.

"In the first two months of the year equity markets have extended their strong showing as investors have continued to switch funds from low-yielding cash and bonds...."

Extract from Schroders' results, the full version is worth reading.

A rising tide lifts all boats, including the one named Henderson which with renewed strategy and focus should fare well in a more encouraging investment climate

ALL IMO. DYOR.

DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 28/2/2013 07:33

Thanks. maybe you're right. Dude. Who knows?

Never been a great one for short-term charts. You sometimes get better results reading the tea-leaves.

But hang on a second, wasn't 2012 a disastrous year generally given the near death experience for Euro-land? Against that back-drop, I thought results were very encouraging.

It's the future I am looking at. And my expectation is that 2013 is going to be a stonker as many Asset Managers are already forecasting.

Good luck to you.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[ruethewhirl] 27/2/2013 23:36

Que, don't write this to antagonise you, but the results were regarded as disappointing:

"It saw a 48pc contraction in performance fees to £33.9million over the period. The dividend payment of 7.15p, up 2 per cent, was below expectations."

Sorry dude. Rose tinted glasses are dangerous in this game and I urge you to look at the facts objectively. Chartwise, the uptrend is over too - that 4% drop today gives us a lower low.

Disclosure: no position.

[quepassa] 27/2/2013 12:04

Could be. Maybe you're right. Although, personally i don't subscribe to that view.

However, with an increased dividend and a huge surge in profits like the ones they posted, I would hate to be caught short on this one.

Watch out above!!.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[ruethewhirl] 27/2/2013 10:41

Down 5% today. Ran too far too fast. Watch out below.

[quepassa] 27/2/2013 08:42

Maybe the dividend increase was not as generous as it could be given the enormous surge in PBT.

But it was an increase, albeit by 2%. Moreover an affirmation of Henderson's policy to grow the dividend.

Otherwise, the figures look EXCELLENT to me and CEO Formica's strategy seems to be very successful.

The Outlook reads very positively. This is important.

Overall an exceptionally good set of corporate results.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 25/2/2013 09:21

Sterling weakness wll boost Asset Managers who specialise in overseas markets.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 14/2/2013 16:34

course it doesn't move the market. nobody is interested in advfn bulletin boards.

however, if you look at the recent meteoric rise of HGG, you would naturally expect a deal of profit-taking on a particularly wobbly day in the markets.

In my view, a minor retracement only.


i have every expectation and belief that the stock will resume its rise towards 200p + within a short space of time.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[petersinthemarket] 14/2/2013 15:13

I enjoy all comments on here, but would be amazed if any of them moved the market!

[gbb483] 14/2/2013 13:41

I guess that was the trigger for the sell off. You should've mentioned the real 2yr high of 172p, then we might've got another 10p before the onslaught

[petersinthemarket] 11/2/2013 12:28

If I'm not mistaken, this is trying to break up through its 2yr high of 162p.
Very encouraging.

[quepassa] 07/2/2013 07:20

Remarkable volume of inflows (doubling quarter on quarter )into Hargreaves Lansdown bodes well for other major Asset managers.

Hargreaves said inflows for second half to Dec 2012 were 42% up on previous half. The strong performance has continued in January. Hargreaves increased interim divi from 5.1p to 6.3p, up some 23%

Henderson should equally benefit and thrive in strong market.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 06/2/2013 10:22

I maintain my personal view that Henderson will hit the 200-215p range within the near term.

Heavy-weight new Chairman elect announced today. Will bring some market additional gravitas and kudos to Henderson

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 28/1/2013 11:08

The significantly higher yield on offer at Henderson is fast being eroded as market assimilates the increasingly positive Henderson proposition.

Earlier posts refer.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 22/1/2013 08:09

Yesterday.

Henderson UPGRADED to BUY by Citigroup

Henderson UPGRADED to BUY by Shore Capital

QP

[quepassa] 21/1/2013 12:03

Agreed.

I see no good reason why Henderson should trade at almost double the yield of some of its peer group asset managers as mentioned above in post 22.

I see the yield gap narrowing significantly.

If the yield on Henderson reduces to 3.50% which is still some 20% above the rest of the pack, that would give a price for Henderson of around 215pence.

Significantly higher than today.

Additionally, we can expect in my view an increase in dividend which would further boost the share.

Personally I see some 30% ++ upside in the near term in this share as it aligns with the yield on the other asset managers.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[gbb483] 21/1/2013 08:28

Looks like they may have to raise that!

[quepassa] 15/1/2013 07:29

On 11/1/13, Credit Suisse issued a Note and retains its OUTPERFORM recommenedation on Henderson with a TARGET PRICE of 157p.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP.

[quepassa] 14/1/2013 14:09

SOME COMPARISONS. THE BIG ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUPS.

SCHRODERS.... MARKET CAP £4.23bn........YIELD 2.08%
ABERDEEN ASSET.............£4.78bn..............2.88%
JUPITER....................£1.44bn..............2.47%
F & C ....................£0.57bn..............2.92%
HENDERSON .................£1.6bn...............4.8%


ADVFN ANALYTICS USED ABOVE.

TICKERS. SDR, ADN, JUP,FCAM, HGG.

HENDERSON HAS PAID A DIVI EVERY YEAR SINCE 2006.


LOOKING CHEAP IN MY VIEW.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 14/1/2013 13:01

JPM Caz raise PRICE TARGET from 141p to 162p today.

Good yield of 4.88%.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[gbb483] 10/12/2012 16:30

... and this is where you'll get them.

[tom111] 10/12/2012 15:55

Showing a nice upward movement here maybe the bid rumours will start up again

[kiwi2007] 06/9/2012 22:06

My Aussie bank has this as a buy (it's quoted on both exchanges):

Here's part of their very long report:

.... Earnings drivers include global equity market performance, increasing inflows into high-margin funds, lower fund outflows and tight cost control. Investment performance is key to attracting fund inflows, and the sharp increase in 1H11 performance fees supports HGGs strategy to differentiate itself from global fund managers. Dividends are unfranked. Other risks include loss of key fund managers, competitive fee pressure, as well as regulatory and competitive risks.

....FY12 guidance is not provided, but we reduce our full year FY12 forecast for underlying profit pre-tax, pre-amortisation from 167m to 154m due to the challenging outlook, lower assets under management and reduced performance fees. Our underlying NPAT (after amortisation i.e. recurring profit) forecast for FY12 reduces from 82.4m to 79.6m, benefiting from a lower tax rate for the full year. Our average exchange rate for 2012 is 64 pence per A$ and our A$ FY12 NPAT decreases to A$124m.

We estimate FY12 EPS of 7.3pence per share, and based on a 94% payout ratio, this equates to a full-year dividend of 6.9 pence per share. Our A$ FY12 dividend forecast is 10.9cps and our fair value estimate reduces from A$2.80 to A$2.60. In A$ terms, the stock remains a Buy below A$1.80, where at A$1.55 it currently trades on an FY12 PE of 13x and a 7% unfranked yield. The interim unfranked dividend of 2.1 pence per share is up 8% on 1H11 and equates to approximately 3.3cps in A$ terms, to be paid 21 September 2012.

Moderately higher fee margin is a positive, underpinning the fund manager's solid competitive position. Despite the increase in the management fee margin from 51.8bps in 1H11 to 54.9bps in 1H12, net fee income declined 12%. HGG expects to retain the current management fee margin of 54bps over 2H. Performance fees decreased 59% to 22m due to tough market conditions and will struggle in 2H and management is guiding for single GBP millions digits given market levels. AUM declined 15% compared to June 2011, but eased down only 1% compared December 2011. Result highlights include continued cost control, improved operating margin and a lower compensation ratio. Investment performance remained solid and cash flow generation was strong. The Gartmore acquisition in early 2011 provides much-needed diversification, expanding capacity for better-performing long-only and absolute return funds.


They have it a buy up to AUS$1.80 and value of AUS$2.60 - at the moment it's trading at AUS$1.61

[tom111] 20/8/2012 20:50

Think big gbb483 3 million shares is peanuts for this company.1.2 mil today,you cant be serious and certainly no interest on this BB