Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Black Rock Oil & Gas LSE:BLR London Ordinary Share GB00B1YW2916 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 1.125p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:37:29
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -1.4 0.2 7.0 0.36

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captainnelsonforties: Hi Eddys, Firstly as Jim has stated this is a substantial investment by this new outfit. The share price of 1p seemed likely. That £2m is already significant dilution, but £2m + the Prospero cash of $2m expenses to be paid on Las Quinchas gives us quite a bit of CAPEX covered (potentially into Arce redevelopment and production) We'll only pay 25% of any costs after the prospero cash investment is used. This is interesting: "Subject to the technical and commercial evaluation by Cetus Investment's management team, Cetus Investment has agreed to provide a minimum of £5,000,000 and a maximum of £10,000,000 either by arranging third party debt for Black Rock or itself providing the funding either by additional equity or a shareholder loan." If fields are proven commercial by Pacific Rubiales its not necessarily a 1bn share issue, it could be debt/loan arranged and supported by commercial reserves and production, by no means guaranteed equity placing. I was getting more in the opinion that the game was up, especially this morning with the share price. This is a substantial commitment and will cover long-term costs on Las Quinchas for at least a year in my opinion. With the prospero cash we're looking at $5m approximate investment available for BLR. That is more than enough for the first cluster drilled and steamed and commercial evalation of Arce and most likely Acacia too. 240m after odd shares at 1p after placing = £2.4m market cap. Net assets were around twice this before any more wells drilled at Arce or Acacia. Long term on the development of Arce BLR can make a market cap of £20m realistic (8-10p per share) and easily supported by the Petrotech evaluation of a developed Arce, regardless of Acacia. If they end up with a billion odd shares it would be a case of seeing how the cash is spent evaluating these assets. While this placing is much much larger than working capital needs there is a feeling that they worked a miracle here to secure a minimum investment of £7m (subject to commerciality of assets) and a maximum investment of up to £12m (with the clause that Cetus cannot bid, exempt from the current takeover rules etc). That seems miraculous that we had fumes left and the long shot of £5m assets. We're funded to the tune well above our asset value now, so well done to managent. There is significant upside from the development of these assets, providing they prove commercial. I'm kinda optimistic about the future of BLR now. Its gonna take much longer than I intended to be here, but there is certianly hope for the crock for the forseeable future. Captain Nelson Forties
captainnelsonforties: Maxk, The share price certainly wouldn't suggest so, but who knows. Market is having some sort of delayed reaction to the funding news. Didn't think it would go sub-1p but the markets are still in trouble and we still haven't any real clarification as to BLR's future. Hopefully we'll get something concrete soon before the share price completely disappears. ;) Captain Nelson Forties
bu5boy: Ivan B, i apologise,if any of my snide comments have in anyway effected the share price of good old BLR.Your right the band should play on,so as were into the season of good will i hope that jc&pk can pull more than a rabbit out the hat. Bestwishes2u all.
captainnelsonforties: Good evening mr Base, We're in the same boat, pardon the pun ;) Agreed, I'm still looking for a bidder to emerge here within the next 2-3 months. Rubiales were looking to kick off a multi-million $ development of Arce before the end of 08. They already put forward the idea of buying out assets of weaker players in a press article, its not as if they don't have the cash. I unfortunately doubt that the long term holders will see much of their original investment back should a deal emerge. Those who enter now may get a very healthy return. I invested with a 200-300% target within 8 weeks, that has unfortunately turned into several months. BLR remains high risk, but still capable of a miraculous gain/recovery should the right deal emerge. On the first hint or sniff of a deal I would anticipate that the share price could double on the day. TBF - I'm a speculator, short-term is king long/short. I do indeed look for companies that are trading well below their asset values or have high upside on future production. OIL, AEY/AEN, VPP all fit into this category. There is much value to be had on the AIM, TSX and ASX markets at present amongst the oil and gas stocks. When I entered BLR they were valued at approximately £800k, had £5m in assets and were in talks with several parties with a possible deal due for the end of August. My views were reinforced by the acquisition of Kappa by Pacific Rubiales and their open views regarding our shared licences. The Petrotech report supported the future economics of our proven reserves. With $2m funding in place with Prospero its just a working capital issue here at present. I'm still hopeful that something will be worked out to secure a deal on a company that is grossly undervalued at present. Plenty of risk, but plenty of upside. Captain Nelson Forties
captainnelsonforties: Well Maxk, I suggest you read the Petrotech technical report as the numbers are all straight out of there. That is the quoted Net Present Value of Arce taken straight from the report. Oh don't worry I know exactly where the share price is and have a fair idea where its heading too. Not all institutions are selling, standard life were buying. Do you even know how these guys work? Some institutions base their buying on selling on criteria such as market cap. Some have to sell if the market cap drops below their fund limits. Some funds don't touch companies that have market values below £3m, once the threshold is reached they have to sell to meet their fund's policy. There are various different factors. My point exactly BLR has been heavily oversold, that's the reason I'm here. BLR selling their assets has nothing to do with which institutions chose to hold or fold. You strike me as a shareholder who has lost a lot on BLR, that is unfortunate and your bitterness may now have clouded your judgement. Maybe others buying now aren't mug punters but rather very savvy investors, not afraid of a bit of risk, and can see the bloody obvious. Arce alone is worth many times our current market value. Something that will be emphasized by the GCA report if the Petrotech report isn't clear enough and if you spend the time to read it you will see that its the case. I did note that the directors are doing their best to reduce costs and have done so successfully enabling the co to trade to the end of the year. During which time the GCA report will hopefully see the light of day. Also the CEO of Pacific Rubiales is looking to buy our partners that haven't the financial strength to meet their program in Colombia. Lets see will Pacific Rubiales say ohh no BLR's asset value is too far above our purchasing power. LOL They have just put a report on their site that has a Net Present Value of 50% of Arce at just over $300 post tax. 25.5% of Arce is therefore in excess of $150m post tax on future value and you think these guys might think twice about £5m, £7m, £10m. Pacific Rubiales could buy Loon Energy, Prospero Hydrocarbons and Black Rock Oil and Gas many times over without blinking an eye. If Pacific want the rest of Arce they will name their price. That articles reads in such a way that any company that stands in the way of Rubiales work program, it will be in their interests to sell to them. I cannot see BLR raising $14m a year to fund the capital expenditure on Arce. Jimarilo, if the steam equipment worked they may well have been producing in that region. One cluster at peak production is scheduled to produce approximately 1,000bopd over 48 months falling to 96% of the previous months production continusously during the cycle. It certainly isn't stopping the current development proposal for Arce. Its in black and white with expected production per horizontal cluster and year by year estimates are given and the peak production. Fut, Well I guess those who bought at 90p may need to average down somewhat. For BLR to achieve a market value nearly £30m it would take a miracle. If the GCA report confirms we have assets of £6-7m a bid is likely in that range or maybe a sweetner will be in there to clinch it for us say £9-£10m. We'll likely have 2P proven and probable reserves in the region of 1.2-1.4MMbbls so a £30m bid is highly unlikely. I'm sure those that bought so high had a strategy and may well have revised that at this stage. Either that or it may be taken out of their control if a bid for the company should emerge. Hybrid, Enough cash in the kitty until year end with Monty open for offers at the moment, so its not cut and dried as yet. The Net Present Value range placed on Arce after tax with various risked elements applied ranges from $331m to $121m for the life of the field. That's for Pacific Rubiale's estimated value to the field when developed. They have 50% interest in this field, so BLR have slightly over half of that interest at 25.5% of this block. So the NPV applied to BLR over the life of the field is $169m to $62m. The field life is estimated to be 11 years peaking at approximately 14,000bopd (gross) at full field production levels. Check out the Pacific Rubiales site and dl that file. Its quite large so it may take a while if you don't have broadband. Its a must read for anyone that holds BLR or is interested in an investment. Its puts things very much into perspective after the comments of the CEO of Rubiales suggesting that anyone who cannot meet the work program of theirs should sell to them. The Capital expenditure (CAPEX) for Arce is huge with up to 4 rigs planned on site to complete development and up to 22 wells per year. Its all there in black and white. Add to that the $15m CAPEX to develop Acacia drilling, seismic and infrastructure and BLR are going to require deep pockets. I have my money where my mouth is on this one. Rightly or wrongly I see BLR being taken over at a price that remains to be determined by a number of factors. This is my opinion and clearly not everyone shares it. As a holder of BLR on a public BB I'm entitled to state it. Captain Nelson Forties
captainnelsonforties: That is one unusual post/phone call for sure. Only to one part would I agree, in that if BLR can raise the funds their share price will increase as the cash uncertainty would then be removed and Prospero and Rubiales can get to work and put in place what may be BLR's rescue plan (i.e. some production from Arce and Acacia with further field development, a new steamer or other technology would be good too but one thing at a time). what is absolute nonsense is £50m? It would be more likely to be in the region of £500k. That would have made the call more realistic and slightly more believable. It could be a potential under-writer trying to drum up interest and fishing before taking shares to see what current interest exists for BLR, then offload any placing to the interested customers. The lack of facts suggests a hoax though. Someone drumming up business would use accurate information. I would take the above with a large pinch of salt. Certainly the change of broker and the recent research coverage would make things seem like something is afoot at camp BLR. A lot of possibilities are still on the cards at present. We have several possibilities while our market cap remains at a fraction of out bookable asset value, no doubt emphasised in that research report. They have dropped their trousers and exposed their assets for interested parties, not they are just awaiting a nibble. Looks like they are putting in the effort in order to attract the right deal. Captain Nelson Forties
ljsquash: May explain some of the recent happenings - copied from another board Interesting article in todays Tgraph: Making sense of dramatic movements in volatile stock markets By James Clunie Last Updated: 6:24am BST 30/07/2008 Why is it that the prices of some UK shares move 10pc or more on days on which no company specific news is released? If, like me, you've been watching the stock market recently, this question has probably crossed your mind more than once. Our collective understanding of how shares should get priced in a "perfect" world struggles to explain such moves. Fortunately, help is at hand. In recent years, stock market researchers have identified a series of activities that can move share prices temporarily and dramatically away from fair value, possibly explaining some of the violent moves we have seen recently. Two of the more interesting phenomena are known as "predatory trading" and "crowded exits". Consider, first, "predatory trading" - a practice explained in lurid, theoretical detail in some recent academic papers. A "predator" learns about the trading position of some other market participant and begins to trade against him. If the predator is strong enough, he can move the market price of the stock away from fair value. This imposes losses on the other party, and as the losses build, the victim struggles to hold on to his stock position. Eventually, the victim capitulates and closes out his position at a loss, and at around the same time, the predator closes out his own position at a profit. The share price eventually recovers to its fair value. Who might fall victim to predatory trading? Victims could include anyone with a position that they might be unable to maintain as losses mount. This could include an investor in financial distress, a hedge fund unable to meet a margin call, or an open-ended fund having to sell shares to meet client redemptions. A more topical example is an underwriter left with an unhedged stock position after a rights issue. Other traders would quickly surmise that the underwriter held unwanted stock. If the share price were driven lower, the underwriter's losses would mount. For risk control reasons, the underwriter might be unable to hold on to the losing position and might sell low. Predators would cover their own positions by buying cheap stock from the distressed seller. Now, I do not know for sure that predatory trading was taking place in some UK bank shares recently, but the pattern of share prices and trading volumes that we saw in HBOS shares last week certainly matches the theoretical model. Another phenomenon that could explain some of the recent, violent share price moves is the concept of "crowded exits". We know that the hedge fund industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and that there has been a noticeable increase in short-selling, the practice that involves selling shares that are not owned and buying them back at some later date, hopefully at an advantageous price. Now, there is plenty of evidence that heavily shorted stocks perform, on average, badly and this suggests a simple trading strategy for short-sellers: namely, to identify heavily shorted stocks and build further short positions in those stocks. However, such acts of "imitation" change the market dynamics and can lead to unexpected consequences. In this case, imitation can lead short positions to become large relative to the number of shares that are normally traded each day in stock...the short position is then said to become "crowded". If a catalyst of some sort were to prompt short-sellers to change their minds rapidly and simultaneously, we would have short-sellers rushing to buy, but no new rush of people seeking to sell. This is known as a crowded exit. The idea is akin to the audience in a crowded theatre rushing to a narrow exit door once the fire alarm sounds?...?only so many can leave the building in any given interval of time. The effect would be temporary upward pressure on the share price. A variety of catalysts for a crowded exit are possible: a broker could change a recommendation on a stock, an investor could place a large buy order, or a rumour could cause a rapid change in sentiment. Recent patterns of share price moves and short-seller activity in companies as diverse as Punch Taverns, Bellway and Trinity Mirror have been consistent with the notion of a crowded exit. In fact, the shares of these three companies rose by an average of 43pc in just four days last week. A study into crowded exits* using UK stock lending data from Index Explorers shows that crowded exits are associated with significant losses for short-sellers who are unable to cover their positions rapidly. Traditional, long-only investors would generally be unable to exploit this finding by buying into crowded exits, as by definition these are illiquid positions. If short-sellers continue to grow in importance on the London Stock Exchange, it is likely that we will experience many more crowded exits. For an active stock market trader, it is vital to be aware of the risk of crowded exits, and to avoid at all costs the risk of becoming a victim of predatory trading. At the same time, astute traders who feel that they understand the reasons for extreme volatility can trade to benefit from temporary mis-pricings. If they are right and the share prices are eventually restored to fair value, they can earn excess profits. For the rest of us, and in particular for long-term, fundamental investors, the advice is much simpler. Crowded exits and predatory trading are technical events that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of a company. Fundamental investors should simply ignore the extreme volatility and stick to estimating companies' cash flows. James Clunie is Investment Trustee at The CBF Church of England Funds *Caveat Venditor - Crowded Exits! University of Edinburgh Centre for Financial Markets Research Working Paper. Clunie, Moles and Gao, 2008.
captainnelsonforties: Hi Ivan, Its reassuring that you have faith in the current management of BLR and that their hard work and commitment may broker a deal. As coming from a fresh perspective here I'm not that familiar with the management, but have faith that the strength of the assets (being worth multiples of the market value) will help secure a deal. Trickyboyfish, BLR certainly isn't without its risks, but it makes for one of the highest potential recovery stock on AIM at present. That's the reason I invested here. If a deal is to be had in the next few weeks I'm expecting a rapid recovery on the share price given that our forward work programme has been secured by Prospero. I'm still in two minds as to what I'd like to see here. On one hand an offer for the company would make very fast returns, on the other hand BLR's assets could be very valuable within the next 18 months if Pacific Rubiales can work some magic. If they work a financing/debt/placing the reserves of our current fields will eventually be released (that could be the current sweetner for any deal being worked at present). I certainly wouldn't go all or nothing into BLR, but I've put my money where my mouth is in the hope to see a quick and rapid increase on any deal concluded before the end of August. At this time there is no guarantees that there will be a deal, but then again there are no guarantees that there won't be one either, its all in play as yet. Captain Nelson Forties
bomfin: If Tullow bid for BLR I'd choke on my cornflakes. Having said that current BLR share price is very cheap way to get into Colombia for anyone interested.
trickyboyfish: Thanks Jim and Vav. I came in at 26p then (being very new to this game) slowly drifting south share price on BLR from 46 to 40 i decided to take a short ride on Carter and Carter which also did me great for the 1 day, the day before the first wave of subprime concerns. I lost all my gain on BLR and the BLR share price started going North again, so in fear of missing the big BLR news I came back at 48p (now averaging 46). Now I refuse to take another loss so I'm in here with all of you longtermers. I even had a dream the other night in which I flew to Columbia to meet JC, a had a drink the bar with him and then flew home again. I still didnt find anything out.
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