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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Rock Oil | LSE:BLR | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B1YW2916 | ORD 1P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
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| 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.125 | 0.00 | 00:00:00 |
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| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
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| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
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| - | O | 0 | 1.125 | GBX |
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| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
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| 19/1/2011 | 19:34 | BLAIR'S WAR ON TERRORISM ??? | 211 |
| 05/12/2009 | 19:58 | Black Rock Oil and Gas PLC | 8,776 |
| 17/6/2009 | 13:34 | BLACK ROCK OIL: CHARTS, RESEARCH AND DISCUSSION (moderated) | 16,731 |
| 06/6/2009 | 10:26 | IVAN'S LEGACY - The New BLACK ROCK Thread | 2,882 |
| 18/6/2008 | 23:28 | The Black Crock Investment Thread | 20 |
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Posted at 21/1/2009 19:14 by trickyboyfish I have to say this again but it really is truly amazing that big companies are collapsing left, right and centre, the banks have become "penny shares" and little old BLR is not only surviving but the share price hasnt budged for weeks.Amazing stuff - Well done BLR (or Woburn) ;) |
Posted at 17/12/2008 20:55 by captainnelsonforties Could Black Rock ever reach 90p?Give it 5 years and the following to occur. No more than the 240m odd shares placed. Arce developed and producing on the grand scale suggested by the Petrotech report, Acacia developed. Moneterey developed with two horizontal fracced production wells and producing with more proven reserves. Stinson proven and producing (currently an exploration prospect only, could be hit or miss). One or more of the deep light oil plays in Colombia ($10-14m odd per well) a glorious success with high flow rates and good recoverability. Given all those factors that require success on all areas would be the only possibility for BLR to reach £200m market cap. Imo they'll need in the region of 10,000boepd. That's not an impossible target, even with their current prospects and development targets, but damn would that need a total reversal of fortunes and a drastic change of luck. It'll take much more than a reversal of the poor global markets for BLR to achieve that. They need a deep light oil target with good flow rates to even have a hope. That is an exploration long shot at the moment. Now that BLR are relatively safe for the next 1-2 years and their current work commitments covered for the foreseeable future I'll be adding during the next 12 months, not immediately, but continuously to bring my 3p average closer to 1.5-2p. It may be a good idea to do the same especially if you have a 90p average share holding. Pacific Rubiales and Prospero will have plans for Arce and Acacia as laid out in the Petrotech report that is very much relevant yet again. Hopefully the GCA will see the light of day also. The plans for Arce starting late 08/early 09 could see at least one cluster of 3 wells in the next 12 months and BLR take on their first real production. No half-assed attempt this time either as we now have PEG as operator. If any one has doubts of these guys ability to develop oil fields in Colombia read up on their Rubiales field. ;) BLR have never been closer to a commercially developed field than now, so its gonna be an interesting 12 months to see what our Canadian partners can deliver. BLR are well geared up for any cash calls now, more than ever. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 17/12/2008 13:14 by captainnelsonforties Hi Eddys,Firstly as Jim has stated this is a substantial investment by this new outfit. The share price of 1p seemed likely. That £2m is already significant dilution, but £2m + the Prospero cash of $2m expenses to be paid on Las Quinchas gives us quite a bit of CAPEX covered (potentially into Arce redevelopment and production) We'll only pay 25% of any costs after the prospero cash investment is used. This is interesting: "Subject to the technical and commercial evaluation by Cetus Investment's management team, Cetus Investment has agreed to provide a minimum of £5,000,000 and a maximum of £10,000,000 either by arranging third party debt for Black Rock or itself providing the funding either by additional equity or a shareholder loan." If fields are proven commercial by Pacific Rubiales its not necessarily a 1bn share issue, it could be debt/loan arranged and supported by commercial reserves and production, by no means guaranteed equity placing. I was getting more in the opinion that the game was up, especially this morning with the share price. This is a substantial commitment and will cover long-term costs on Las Quinchas for at least a year in my opinion. With the prospero cash we're looking at $5m approximate investment available for BLR. That is more than enough for the first cluster drilled and steamed and commercial evalation of Arce and most likely Acacia too. 240m after odd shares at 1p after placing = £2.4m market cap. Net assets were around twice this before any more wells drilled at Arce or Acacia. Long term on the development of Arce BLR can make a market cap of £20m realistic (8-10p per share) and easily supported by the Petrotech evaluation of a developed Arce, regardless of Acacia. If they end up with a billion odd shares it would be a case of seeing how the cash is spent evaluating these assets. While this placing is much much larger than working capital needs there is a feeling that they worked a miracle here to secure a minimum investment of £7m (subject to commerciality of assets) and a maximum investment of up to £12m (with the clause that Cetus cannot bid, exempt from the current takeover rules etc). That seems miraculous that we had fumes left and the long shot of £5m assets. We're funded to the tune well above our asset value now, so well done to managent. There is significant upside from the development of these assets, providing they prove commercial. I'm kinda optimistic about the future of BLR now. Its gonna take much longer than I intended to be here, but there is certianly hope for the crock for the forseeable future. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 17/12/2008 09:34 by captainnelsonforties Maxk,The share price certainly wouldn't suggest so, but who knows. Market is having some sort of delayed reaction to the funding news. Didn't think it would go sub-1p but the markets are still in trouble and we still haven't any real clarification as to BLR's future. Hopefully we'll get something concrete soon before the share price completely disappears. ;) Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 17/9/2008 11:29 by captainnelsonforties oilhunter,Sure at the moment, but they're projected numbers for 09 production. What price do you reckon blended intermediate oil will trade at in 09. In or around $100/bbl average would be my estimate at the moment. High Demand vs Moderate Supply will keep oil prices high in the next few years. Well if you want to go on the Petrotech NPV numbers that values Arce at over 25 times our current market cap then there is room for some oil price falls I reckon. ;). A take over at our NAV or even remotely close to it is still a fraction of the Petrotech numbers. Petrotech is only an estimate of the NPV of the oil produced and a reflection of the value of the licence in the future. A snip of that would value BLR at multiples of todays market value. Pacific Rubiales or Gran Tierra Energy could tie this up with a minor cash acquisition. As the forward work programme can be agreed and BLR seems to be now running on pretty modest cash burn as the funds were stretched. Oil falling isn't necessarily a bad thing as it speeds up asset acquisition. Companies don't usually acquire at peak prices. Hybrid agreed, there is a dempand for these small South American producers/explorers. The GOO activity strengthens this. A number of deep pockets out there at the moment and plenty of room in them for small companies. Its not as if Pacific Rubiales isn't interested in the Las Quinchas licence, their CEO's statement speaks volumes, and they don't want their programme delayed. BLR's last statement mentioned the GCA report again so its a possible play for time to strengthen their hand against whichever parties they're in discussions with. No doubt that report will put a value on us somewhat higher than our £720k market cap. BLR just require cash for working capital at the moment. Prospero have that $2m in the wings to fund development for our 25.5% working interest. £200-300k (a small placing could keep us ticking over). If Pacific want to meet their aggressive program they may well name a price, especially if GCA and Petrotech support a good value to these finds. Money talks at the end of the day and if Pacific wants another 25.5% of Las Quinchas all they have to do is name their price. Captain Nelson Forties. |
Posted at 05/9/2008 16:41 by oilhunter2 Capt'n. re. GCA CPR. since Kappa is now PR. will BLR have access to the CPA?. problem is BLR has no money to fund its portion of the CPR so why should PR give BLR access to it. Also if PR wanted to increase its holdings in the Acre/Acacia Este asset, I would not give BLR access. just get rid of BLR. Either outright offer/purchase of the BLR permit equity or swamp with a high work programme budget which BLR could not pay and go into default. the operator with its high equity has total power over budget/work programme. it can get up to all sort of things...not that PR would of course... |
Posted at 04/9/2008 23:08 by captainnelsonforties Maxk,I guess you must have missed S Walkers last post on this thread. Jimarilo, As an apparent shareholder in BLR your lack of interest is astounding. The information is all in the Petrotech reports. It states how much these wells are going to cost its all in there and I have been posting it. The reality is very clear: 1. BLR are short of cash 2. BLR have assets worth at least £5m and a market cap of £900k 3. Arce development laid out by the report suggests 14,000bopd peak production and a total of 138 wells to drill, don't use outdated information, the petrotech has been commissioned by Pacific Rubiales. 4. BLR do not have the financial strength to commit to a work program on the scale of Pacific Rubiales a $bn Canadian company. 5. The CEO of Pacific Rubiales has suggested that any company that hasn't the financial strength to meet drilling obligations should sell to them. 6. In the purchase of Kappa Rubiales paid $18m/£9m per 1MMbbls of 2P 7. BLR have around 1MMBls of 2P from Arce and Acacia, given the acquisition price of Kappa around 27p per share. 8. One way BLR can seek value from their licences is to sell up and release value to investors. They cannot match the plans Rubiales has for Arce alone, let alone Acacia. 9. At peak development 22 horizontal development wells per year will cost $14m for BLR's share of CAPEX. Can they raise it or should they sell, the answer is obvious. 10. Don't be too quick to dismiss the points of others, when suggested these may be developed in the same way as other Canadian shallow heavy oil fields using horizontal wells you dismissed that out of hand. Low and behold, clusters of 4 horizontals with injector wells. 11. Acacia resulted in sanded perforations as no packers were installed. New wells will have packers for sand control and make a re-drilled Acacia-1 capable of up to 300bopd, and Acacia 2 up to 150bopd. These will probably also be horizontal completions that can increase the production index of a well as its drilled across the productive reservoir. 12. You did read the report didn't you? Its a good place to start. Well gemeroilio once you get your head around the report you'll be up to speed with the rest of us. Maybe then you and mack may even buy a few. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 04/9/2008 16:09 by captainnelsonforties Hi Base,These are my opinions based on the available information. At least a few of us see a future and value to BLR. ;) Its all about timing, we have the proven and probable reserves from Arce at present. That report lays out the development plans for Acacia and Arce. The capital expenditure for these fields has been highlighted. Pacific Rubiales may have engineered that press release to put a point across. Its clear that they want to aggressively develop their assets through the acquisition of Kappa, raising Kappa's gross production from 4,000bopd to 12,000bopd by 09. Clearly that's not all Acacia and Arce, but they'll play a part. Acacia-1 and -2 will be re-drilled and sand prevention installed, Acacia-1 expected to produce 300bopd and Acacia-2 150bopd. Cash calls for these would be in the region of $3.5 - $4m over 08 and part of 09. Prospero would fund $2m on our behalf we would need at least another $2m before working capital to meet these commitments. The rest of 09 could push BLR as Rubiales wants 12 production wells drilled. Production cash flow wouldn't meet requirements. If they get a buyer for Monty they'll be good for one cluster on Arce and a re-drill of Acacia then its square one again. Hopefully an inproved 2P with more proven and probable oil reserves on both fields. Successful horizontals would increase our proven oil from the vertical holes we have. Acacia-1 and Arce cluster-1 (4 wells + injector) could provide BLR at best case approximately 250bopd ($25,000 per day approximately). Each Arce cluster will cost BLR approximately $2.5m. At that point they would need another $5m funds for cash calls for the 2 remaining clusters for 09. The GCA report should see the light of day by then so that may make it easier for us to raise these funds, but here lies the point that Mr Puntin made regarding significant dilution. Its my opinion that Mr Puntin wasn't making reference to any one company, but to all companies that share Kappa's turf. If you cannot make the payments and slow development plans sell to us. The last thing that Pacific Rubiales would want is delays caused by BLR going down the shoot and the red tape and months of delays caused by liquidation. Its much smoother as they recognise the value of Arce and Acaica to put in a realistic offer. Call in the media and make the suggestion publicly, hence we get a press report hinting at just that. Mr Puntin even makes a direct remark regarding the Las Qunichas licence. Hybrid, There is risk here in that BLR may not raise funds from the working capital requirements and a bid/merger may not emerge. That is the risk. Given Mr S Walkers appraisal of the management I believe that they will do their best to give something back to shareholders and something that will bring value here. I am of the firm opinion that with the quality of our assets demonstrated by the recent report and the interest of major players such as Pacific Rubiales in this partnership we'll get a deal done. That recent press article has made me even more sure of the direction this is going, I see it only as a matter of time now. I do hold more now than before. That was the CEO's put up or sell up comment to Kappas partners (BLR included). Check the report on Rubiales site. Lifting, transportation costs, infrastructure and blending of the Arce oil is only a fraction of the wellhead value of the oil and the Net Present Value of the assets. The field is set for a peak production of 14,000bopd estimated production (very commercial on that scale). I estimate that when the GCA report comes to fruition we'll have an asset value of £6-7m, management will push the exploration value of our licences to the potential bidder giving us a bid slighly above the value of our fields. Somewhere in the region of £7-10m would be fantastic. A £3m bid would get my vote and a 200% profit, but I would like to see some of the rest of you get something of value back or as much as possible. I'll support the "as much as possible" bid completely. ;) there are some investors here that have been broken by BLR's poor performance as can be seen by comments, that's understandable. There is value to these assets though even if not all can agree or see that. Fair value on BLR should be £6m (20p), but fear has driven us down. Enamel, A bid for Monty/Stinson could see a reasonable return and breathing space for at least a few months of the Pacific Rubiales plans for Arce and Acacia and bring more value to BLR through successful development. Where BLR get the cash to keep pace with the JV is where I cannot figure. Production cash flow won't match initial expenditure and given the recent article I see this heading in one dircetion, into the pockets of our banker. All in my opinion of course. If they can get a cash partner we could have a different story. I cannot see a company giving us that good a terms at present and they are going to want a very decent slice of the action. A merger with a co with $8-10m in cash and little assets could buy us some time. As long as the management do their best for shareholders in returning value to some here then I cannot argue with that, regardless of how it pans out in the end. Captain Nelson Forties. |
Posted at 03/9/2008 23:09 by captainnelsonforties Well Maxk,I suggest you read the Petrotech technical report as the numbers are all straight out of there. That is the quoted Net Present Value of Arce taken straight from the report. Oh don't worry I know exactly where the share price is and have a fair idea where its heading too. Not all institutions are selling, standard life were buying. Do you even know how these guys work? Some institutions base their buying on selling on criteria such as market cap. Some have to sell if the market cap drops below their fund limits. Some funds don't touch companies that have market values below £3m, once the threshold is reached they have to sell to meet their fund's policy. There are various different factors. My point exactly BLR has been heavily oversold, that's the reason I'm here. BLR selling their assets has nothing to do with which institutions chose to hold or fold. You strike me as a shareholder who has lost a lot on BLR, that is unfortunate and your bitterness may now have clouded your judgement. Maybe others buying now aren't mug punters but rather very savvy investors, not afraid of a bit of risk, and can see the bloody obvious. Arce alone is worth many times our current market value. Something that will be emphasized by the GCA report if the Petrotech report isn't clear enough and if you spend the time to read it you will see that its the case. I did note that the directors are doing their best to reduce costs and have done so successfully enabling the co to trade to the end of the year. During which time the GCA report will hopefully see the light of day. Also the CEO of Pacific Rubiales is looking to buy our partners that haven't the financial strength to meet their program in Colombia. Lets see will Pacific Rubiales say ohh no BLR's asset value is too far above our purchasing power. LOL They have just put a report on their site that has a Net Present Value of 50% of Arce at just over $300 post tax. 25.5% of Arce is therefore in excess of $150m post tax on future value and you think these guys might think twice about £5m, £7m, £10m. Pacific Rubiales could buy Loon Energy, Prospero Hydrocarbons and Black Rock Oil and Gas many times over without blinking an eye. If Pacific want the rest of Arce they will name their price. That articles reads in such a way that any company that stands in the way of Rubiales work program, it will be in their interests to sell to them. I cannot see BLR raising $14m a year to fund the capital expenditure on Arce. Jimarilo, if the steam equipment worked they may well have been producing in that region. One cluster at peak production is scheduled to produce approximately 1,000bopd over 48 months falling to 96% of the previous months production continusously during the cycle. It certainly isn't stopping the current development proposal for Arce. Its in black and white with expected production per horizontal cluster and year by year estimates are given and the peak production. Fut, Well I guess those who bought at 90p may need to average down somewhat. For BLR to achieve a market value nearly £30m it would take a miracle. If the GCA report confirms we have assets of £6-7m a bid is likely in that range or maybe a sweetner will be in there to clinch it for us say £9-£10m. We'll likely have 2P proven and probable reserves in the region of 1.2-1.4MMbbls so a £30m bid is highly unlikely. I'm sure those that bought so high had a strategy and may well have revised that at this stage. Either that or it may be taken out of their control if a bid for the company should emerge. Hybrid, Enough cash in the kitty until year end with Monty open for offers at the moment, so its not cut and dried as yet. The Net Present Value range placed on Arce after tax with various risked elements applied ranges from $331m to $121m for the life of the field. That's for Pacific Rubiale's estimated value to the field when developed. They have 50% interest in this field, so BLR have slightly over half of that interest at 25.5% of this block. So the NPV applied to BLR over the life of the field is $169m to $62m. The field life is estimated to be 11 years peaking at approximately 14,000bopd (gross) at full field production levels. Check out the Pacific Rubiales site and dl that file. Its quite large so it may take a while if you don't have broadband. Its a must read for anyone that holds BLR or is interested in an investment. Its puts things very much into perspective after the comments of the CEO of Rubiales suggesting that anyone who cannot meet the work program of theirs should sell to them. The Capital expenditure (CAPEX) for Arce is huge with up to 4 rigs planned on site to complete development and up to 22 wells per year. Its all there in black and white. Add to that the $15m CAPEX to develop Acacia drilling, seismic and infrastructure and BLR are going to require deep pockets. I have my money where my mouth is on this one. Rightly or wrongly I see BLR being taken over at a price that remains to be determined by a number of factors. This is my opinion and clearly not everyone shares it. As a holder of BLR on a public BB I'm entitled to state it. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 30/8/2008 11:03 by captainnelsonforties Hi Jimarilo,I suggest you read up on the Canadian heavy oil industry. These wells could be very viable and look on first impressions to be similar to the very commercial shallow oil fields of Alberta Canada. Wells there can be boosted considerably by various technologies over cold flow rates, as much as x10. Horizontal completions may also be used with intermittent steam injector wells or downhole stimulation. Kappa weren't interested in developing these assets, they just wanted a quick exit/sale it seems. They have progressed their assets very little over the past year on the run up to sell off. When the operator was doing very little to maximize value to their assets through production and developmental drilling there was very little black rock could do only sit there and take it. Its a different story now. Prospero and Rubiales are essentially heavy oil companies. Rubiales in particular has a significant presence in Colombian heavy oil from the the Rubiales field. If you want anyone to operate and develop your heavy oil field its these guys. Take wells on Arce or Acacia for example. Arce is more straight forward as all wells are pretty much alike, 30-40ft pay on a 300ft oil column. Chicala responded with at least x5 production when successfully steamed. That would equate to 150-200bopd per well if Arce responds successfully. There is no reason to suggest that a properly working set of equiptment couldn't do the same to Arce. Acacia-1 could have the potential for up to 1000bopd if steamed to the max and optimum performance. Even at a fraction of these recovery rates and they would be commercial wells. Wells only cost approx $1m to 3000ft, we're talking $250k per well to BLR. BLR's assets have value as demonstrated by the petrotech report and soon by the Gaffney, Cline and Associates reserve report (previously blocked/stalled by Kappa it seems). These reserves will underpin significantly higher value to BLR than suggested by our market value. A number of factors could see BLR through this hard patch including the sale of Monty, a partner or Buyer for the rest of the company (Colombia), funding from those who see potential for our production base. The reinstatement of production from Arce and Acacia. Now that the dead weight operator has been removed from the necks of BLR and we have our new partners in place (prospero ready to commit $2m on our behalf to Las Quinchas) the next few months could be very interesting for BLR. We get any progress at all on Acacia and BLR could be a different beast. Rubiales and Prospero are ideal partners to move BLR ahead. If you have any doubts about this read up on Canadian Heavy oil and how those fields are developed. Nothing has changed since I entered BLR, they have a little more money than I first thought. I thought August was the finale, but we got a few more months. Why is that a good thing? The reserve report will add value to BLR, and in the mean time we may get Acacia-3 as a result of the new seismic, we also get a few months to work with Rubiales to get things moving again on our properties. The reasons I invested here haven't changed. £5m approximately in assets (probably more after the GCA report) and $2m committed work funding vs a £800k market cap. If the right news comes and the brakes come off there won't be anything stopping this ones for a little while. Its still an "if" for the removal of the uncertainty and risk, but we have just received a 3 month extension and we all know a lot can happen in the markets in that time. Captain Nelson Forties |
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