Henderson European Share Discussion Threads

[scumdog] 24/1/2006 12:47

The results from the underlying trading are worse than I expected, as is the cash flow. Also worrying is the high stock figure. This being a predominantly cash business what constitutes the debtors?

[anley] 24/1/2006 11:13

Need to study the news - will be back soon.

[sporticus] 24/1/2006 11:07

Back seat driving? You bet. It could be a cosmetic change to appease the major shareholders who were calling for him to be sacked.

I think world cup football will have an effect on rentals and sales so I wouldnt hold out for any FY divi. Im surprised he didnt mention it in his outlook paragraph. Arent you?

[bletherer] 24/1/2006 10:31

The interims suggest trading has not deteriorated further over Christmas, which is a relief - the most obvious bad news is the axing of the interim dividend, though in the circumstances that was perhaps not that surprising. They are rather cagey about the FY dividend, too. I see Muspratt is going to carry on as Chairman after relinquishing the CEO position - some back seat driving up ahead?

[sporticus] 23/1/2006 22:04

anley,

I might be completely wrong, but having lost just about all my stake [around 88%] I understand the only value is in the stock and that is about 3 pounds each in the bargain bins 8 weeks after the worst of the new movies have hit the shops. Remember they knocked millions off the stock value with no explanation.

According to the accounts the shop base is mostly leased but they sell games and phones. Who doesnt? Well me. I dont.

I think if the directors had something up their sleeves they would have shown their hands before now. I might be wrong but looking at the directors shares if the finance director holds zilch what does that say to you?

There was a call by the major share holders for the chairman to be sacked or resign which he is due to do in april anyway so dont hold your breath in case he decides he believes he is needed to get the share price back up.

Based on last years tipsters this is the only dog in my port. Bummer.
I think Siwel100 is involved with them but he has not written anything here for a while.

Anything you can offer to the discussion would be helpful.

[anley] 23/1/2006 13:06

So what is this company really worth?
The value of its quotation or something else?
What is a UK shop base worth and can it be used to sell other profitable goods and services?

One will know if the interims come out next week but my bet is that the directors have something up their sleaves.

In the meantime a few thousand shares are traded and we all watch our net worth going down and down.

[she-ra] 22/1/2006 13:03

bletherer -Youre missing something.They are refurbishing existing stores-not leaving the high st,they cant compete on price on the internet compared to Jersey-based internet rivals (I shop at Play,Blahdvd and Sendit) and they may as well be selling typewriters as the movie download business is about to explode onto the scene.

Therefore they are the most prehistoric in terms of having high st rental shops (of course a lot of people will still go there but the numbers will dwindle),DVD rental competition over the internet is fierce and downloads are on the way.

I find Choicesuk DVDs to buy just too pricey.

[bletherer] 21/1/2006 19:55

Thanks Sporticus. I'm no expert on valuation theory but if I'm reading the books right this company looks exceptionally cheap with a price-to-book ratio of only about 0.5, with no debt and no intangible assets to artificially inflate the valuation. If they could turn any sort of profit the shares would surely fly, and even if they can't I'd have thought somebody should be interested in buying up their assets at this price in the belief they can do more with them. I know it's a competitive field but it's not like they're specialising in typewriters or something - they are moving away from the high street rental area which looks the real dead end. So am I missing something obvious or is there real potential value here?

[sporticus] 21/1/2006 15:09

Interims next week

[scumdog] 20/1/2006 22:43

Forecast dividend of 4.9p for year ended 31st May 2006.

[scumdog] 20/1/2006 22:40

Company announced in November an anticipated loss of £3.3m for the half year.
However £3m of this they state as exceptional and non-recurring.

[scumdog] 20/1/2006 22:22

Website says interims anouncement Jan 06. Nothing on company diary on Digital Look though.

[bletherer] 20/1/2006 16:01

Does anyone know when their trading statement is coming out? With a dividend yield now north of 10% and an share price of less than half their book value I am presuming the market is anticipating something like Apocalypse Now...

[krakatoa] 04/1/2006 19:18

Siwel. you seem to be pretty savvy about this firm. any idea why another drop. is it time to sell before i lose everything or is it time to buy a few more cos there cheap.

aslo in your posting on 21 December which company are you on about kts or choices

[scotty1] 22/12/2005 13:46

Looks like the tick up last couple of days was a bit of a pop n drop :)

[siwel100] 21/12/2005 18:17

someone sold a few but another buyer picked up 9k today. It really is amazing just how illiquid this company is. I dont mind if it either bounces or they take the opportunity to take it fully private. Either way its in the 140-160p range

[siwel100] 21/12/2005 18:16

THE BIG FELLA....sickly..:)

[the big fella] 20/12/2005 11:49

How's KTS doing?

[siwel100] 20/12/2005 08:57

Ticking up again.

[scotty1] 20/12/2005 00:27

Lol siwel you might get your 45p yet.While I'm here mate you seem pretty
good at ramping.Just wondered if you could nip over to the BIT thread
and give me a helping hand ;-))))

[siwel100] 19/12/2005 09:02

Was a daft fall on such low volume, hardly suprising its now bouncing back....should reach 140p with no trouble.

[siwel100] 16/12/2005 16:11

Almost overlooked is the current £20 million of console games being sold by HET, an area where they are already seeing increased sales. Next year has the full release of the next generation XBox360 and PS3 games consoles. Fatter margins and good hardware demand will feed through for HET, not to mention increased game rentals as new console owners test out the new games.

Although like most retailers they are concerned by dvd piracy, the new copy protected DVD formats are coming out next year, HD DVD and Blue-Ray. The consortium behind the HD DVD format has already flagged it is eager for Chinese production to push the price of new machines down and the Blue-Ray consortium includes Sony and their new PS3 machine which will be a Blue-Ray DVD machine, 200million of which will be sold in the coming years. Of itself it may all be a little obscure in relation to HET but with all the Studios signed up to release DVD's on the new formats, piracy will become increasingly a thing of the past.

Much mentioned is the "home delivery" option much advertised by numerous suppliers this year. Already there has been a tightening in the offer by many of the new suppliers with restrictions to a certain number of rentals per month.This increase in the cost of the offer together with the normal postal delay for reciept, should curb the penetration of this "concept"

Further into the future is video on demand. This is more difficult to establish as a real threat to HET's DVD rental business, not least because the time frames are unknown and there will be a considerable technical investment by the user to actually use any potential service. Whtever develops it will have to compete with the almost total penetration of DVD players and low rental costs to customers.

No one may be safe in a fast changing technical world, but HET has proved to be nimble and although this has been a very poor year for them including the transition costs to full DVD with a substantial write down on VHS stock, the company is adapting well and at current prices, the share price shows a substantial discount to worth not least because of the 11% dividend on offer and the commitment by the company to a steadily increasing dividend.

[siwel100] 16/12/2005 15:16

Fell from 140 to 60 on no volume, looks like its about to do exactly the same thing in reverse.

[siwel100] 14/12/2005 23:24

krakatoa...You cant beat shareholders saying the shares should be double or triple current price to stimulate some action...management works twice as hard with shareholders peering over the shoulder.
Mind you, with Divi already at 11% and looking secure, am suprised the shareholders arent dipping back in.
Of course you could buy some over priced/ramped/hyped doggie with zero growth/recovery potential offering a paltry 3% divi....:)