Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 12:20

Andy lives there from what he's said.

[steve c1] 05/2/2020 12:19

Ive been looking at vof myself. I just think potential there is massive, I'm very tempted if i can live with the volatility.

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 12:10

Andy, any view on the Vietnam focussed investment trusts?,
you must be in an ideal position to take a view on those...

[redponza] 04/2/2020 14:51

Hi Andy,
Most of China will start operating next Monday!
Though I do not have enough insights to offer as how the thing will spread....

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2020 13:49

Andy, with adverse market newsflow (non stock specific)
often markets will attempt to factor that in quickly
and for it too keep impacting, the news generally needs to get worse.

That being said, we look to have traveled from fear to complacency in 48hrs
and not sure the later is warranted at this point.

I'm paying for a pneumonia booster this afternoon.

[andyj] 04/2/2020 11:51

I agree EI. The markets seem to have dismissed the threat as being an overreaction, but cases are rising at the same speed and human to human transmission is popping up in other countries in the region. The Korean woman diagnosed today is particularly worrying as she had only visited Thailand. The sense of panic here in Vietnam is growing. Temperature checks are everywhere and most are now wearing face masks. It remains very possible, if not likely, that there will be significant outbreaks in other countries in the coming weeks or months. That will force a market reassessment of the threat and even if that does not happen, we do not know how long China will be shut down for. The risks to the global economy remain significant. Staying largely in cash... watching and waiting.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2020 16:16

Nicely timed, I got down to 1.16 this morning on one lot,
It often sells at a 3/4% NAV premium.

Not sure if this volatility is over though. It would surprise me if it was.

[andyj] 03/2/2020 11:13

Bought a very little Brfi but will drip small amounts into the funds I want.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2020 10:22

Aleman, thanks for the detail and clarification.

My other half works in healthcare(advanced dementia/terminal illness)and I have asthma, so any good
news would be most welcome.


I'm adding slowly to EM and Asia focussed trusts.
Hoping that in a few months those prices will look reasonable.

[aleman] 03/2/2020 10:15

Every case I've seen detailed seems consistet with Lancet papers; 4 or 5 days incubation, 4 or 5 days of deteriorating symptoms , then 4 or 5 days of recovery for most or hospitalisation and pneumonia for the unlucky. Over in around 2 weeks - maybe rather longer for those battling severe pneumonia.

From the latest numbers spread rates seem to have slowed a whisker but still seem to be doubling every 4 days. Death rates seem to have eased a touch. Both are still too high to avoid containment issues and global economic issues soon - except that is the OVERVIEW. Examine the regional figures and the death rate outside Hubei is running 10 times lower than it did inside, and spread outside China in recent days has been quite a lot slower than inside. Something does not seem to add up. Scaremongerers say its China covering up a worse situation than admitted but how would that make figures outside China better than expected so far and why such a huge contrast between inside and outside of Hubei?

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2020 08:54

Gateside, one potential upside is a weakening £, with renewed uncertainty
on EU talks.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2020 08:46

Andy, if you intend to buy some BRFI at some point, the spread usually tightens later
in the day. All things being equal, morning often not the best time to deal.
Whether it's a good time to buy full stop is a different matter ).

[gateside] 03/2/2020 08:00

Let's hope it's a positive outlook for all.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2020 07:49

Guessed a 6/7% fall for China markets and we are around that area atm.

Asia markets may now be a buy for the brave?.

Virus not as transmissable as thought/weakening?, or is it a lag we are seeing.
Incubation period of up to 10 days, followed by mild symptoms for another week
to 10 days, leading to conditions like pneumonia over the next week.
That's about a month all told?.

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2020 17:01

There could also be significant under reporting of milder cases, people
who either don't seek or need medical attention?.

The virus could potentially weaken as it mutates, the flipside also.

Equity markets will at least attempt to price scenarios in quite quickly,
so for equities to continue to weaken, the newsflow may also need to get worse.

We were overdue some increased market volatility, mentioned on the SHA board 2 weeks
ago than only perhaps the later stages of the tech boom mirrored the lack of fear in markets. That being said, the VIX did slip into single figures briefly 2 years ago.

[aleman] 01/2/2020 16:36

Better still, the current US flu season lists 15m estimated cases, 140k hospitalisations and 8200 deaths. A death rate of 0.05-0.06%. A bad flu would be maybe 0.1-0.25%. It makes nCoV look much more deadly. It's 3.3% in Hubei but that's on confirmed cases which could be misleading for all sorts of reasons. nCoV in Hubei has 249 deaths from 7153 cases but more than 10 times that are under observation and how many (with mild symptoms) missed?

[hastings] 01/2/2020 15:38

Very interesting to compare this novel Virus with that of Influenza H1N1 from 2009 which emerged in Mexico but really manifested in the US.265k hospitalised there and 12k deaths.

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2020 15:10

Sure, there could be dividend cuts in China and elsewhere in the region,
particularly if other countries mirror the China outbreak.
Have not looked at their reserves, would expect they would hold the payout
for a time, but ultimately it has to reflect income.

Looking at the press commentary we may get some pockets of market panic next week.
hoping some longer term opportunities will be thrown up.

I've been way too cautious on equity markets since early June last year,
which has been painful. Around 48% invested as of the close Friday.

[aleman] 01/2/2020 14:59

HFEL does no invest in this end of the world. About 25% of income is from China. The way that is being disrupted, Chinese dividends could drop sharply. They've already lost 3 business days' income but overheads will be similar. That could shred profit margins.

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2020 14:45

red, interesting question. China is around 20% of exposure?.
Dividend yield got to around 7% in 2015.
Would be surprised if yield got much over that, just guesswork.

[redponza] 01/2/2020 14:43

Stay calm, the sky isn't collapsing in this end of the world!