Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 01/2/2020 14:34

Well it is starting to look like neither might be up with events. Numerous countries are now not allowing entry to anyone - Chinese or not - who has been in China inside the latest two weeks. This could easily spread to include people that have been in Thailand, South Korea, Singapore and Japan in the last two weeks, as they've all have reported 10+ cases. The only cause for optimism at the moment is that death rates outside Hubei, are lower - and some much lower - than they were for Hubei with similar numbers of infections, though Hubei's death rate is now up to 3.34% which is closing in on Spanish flu rates of 1918 which was global disaster. It all paints a very confused picture of variability. We expected a clearer picture as the disease spread but that is not the case in recent days.

[redponza] 01/2/2020 12:00

Should we price this according to the yield or the NAV?

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2020 11:51

Vietnam has declared a public health emergency and is stopping all flights
to and from China.

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2020 20:54

Around 3.31 the November '18 low. Tuesday's update may have the China held inclusive NAV. China stocks to fall 6-7٪ Monday?. Depends also on how the virus newsflow
develops this weekend.

[masurenguy] 31/1/2020 15:54

Having gone xd I've taken a reduced profit and completely sold out today since the shareprice could continue to fall when the Chinese market reopens next week. Now closing on the current net asset value which has fallen by 7% over the past week and it could decline further. Will look to buy back in when the current coronavirus scenario has stabilised.

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2020 15:07

I've added to AAIF, SOI, TEM today and bought some BRFI. Sold the rest
of my JEFI as they had some recent marked outperformance.
Gut feel is next week may be ugly.

[gateside] 31/1/2020 15:03

Feb 2016, saw the price as low as 252pCould have further to fall. Will watch and wait for now.

[gateside] 31/1/2020 15:01

Believe China's stock market reopens on Monday.Good point about the NAV falling further.

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2020 14:47

Yup, that's what I've concluded, may be a mistake.
Dont think the NAV update can include China listed stocks
as how could they price a closed market?.

3.46 was my buy target price here.

[redponza] 31/1/2020 14:41

Waiting the premium to NAV to close before considering!

[gateside] 31/1/2020 14:32

I'm tempted too!

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2020 06:53

I'm looking at the same sector for long side opportunities,
but not yet. Best time to buy is often when consensus says the sky is falling in.

On the LSE, RYA and EZJ were two nice examples of that last year,
I got quite a few RYA under 9.

It can pay handsomely going against consensus provided a stock in question
is a fundamentally sound business, rather than a value trap.
Would only take a contrarian view on companies I know well.

[andyj] 31/1/2020 01:49

I agree. The safest investments at the moment are taking shorts in travel, leisure and indices, but I have no interest in profiting from the misery of others. It is hard to see when things can return to normal. Regarding seasonality, it is an interesting point although regionally specific. Vietnam and Thailand et al are in the middle of our hot dry seasons, cloudless skies until May, then it will turn warm and very damp, as China and Japan move into their hot summer seasons.

[aleman] 30/1/2020 16:34

If the WHO and UK epidemiological models are right, there's already in the order of 3000 cases in the rest of the world, though this probably suggests a lower death rate. If nCoV is like other corona viruses. Spring weather will greatly reduce the rate of spread. Also, this year's flu inundated western hospitals with pneumonia cases so there is the possibility that nCoV is more potent to start with if it feeds off these weakened victims - or they might even be some confusion over which pneumonia is killing people in diagnosis and statistics. Flu has already killed around 8000 people this season just in the USA and the majority will probably be through pneumonia.

There's a lot we don't know yet. I think it's quite possible it might not be as bad a seems, though it seems a little like clutching at straws and I have little doubt that authorities will very soon be planning for the worst and it will have a significant economic impact.

Stimulus will do nothing. People won't go to shops, theatres and restaurants and other leisure venues at the risk of infection just because interest rates drop a bit.

[essentialinvestor] 30/1/2020 16:33

The Chinese likely to unleash stimulus, in large quantity if necessary.
Need to keep in mind.

[gateside] 30/1/2020 16:25

Had looked at investing here last week for the dividend. Will simply keep it on the watchlist for now, need to see how this all pans out. Even if the virus is contained soon and let hope it does. This could have a knock on effect on the Chinese economy for some time to come.

[andyj] 30/1/2020 16:16

According to the head of the Shanghai response team, Dr Zhang, the most optimistic scenario is controlling the virus in the next two to three months, but he admits that is unlikely. The rest of the world can currently cling to the hope that there has not yet been widespread transmission in other countries. But is it realistic to effectively isolate and lockdown China for several months or more? Given the damage that just one infected person can inflict it remains the best way of containment, but at what price to the Chinese, regional and global economy? And what if it does begin to spread in other countries? That is the greatest fear of all.

[essentialinvestor] 30/1/2020 13:10

Aleman, not sure how accurate reports are, but China may have shortages
of test kits in some regions. To what degrees, if the case, is guesswork I suppose.

[essentialinvestor] 30/1/2020 13:07

Andy, appreciate the view, thanks.

That's a big lifestyle change for you then.

[aleman] 30/1/2020 11:19

I was talking more about Vietnam and countries outside China. It's in their interest to exaggerate it. I don't see why infections and deaths would be higher than published for countries outside China. Better to exaggerate it early and reduce the spread. China will have missed he boat for doing that.

[pvb] 30/1/2020 11:04

You can be sure Mr Jinping does not publicly announce that his country is facing a grave situation without very good reason.

A similar thought had occurred to me.

[andyj] 30/1/2020 10:52

There is a direct connection between how much your economy relies on tourism, added to that is the need for any government, especially those that are not democratically elected, to appear in complete control, lest...well better I don't say anymore!You can be sure Mr Jinping does not publicly announce that his country is facing a grave situation without very good reason.

[andyj] 30/1/2020 10:46

I am originally from the UK. I began selling Asian funds the moment the virus was confirmed as being transmitted between humans. People live in incredibly close proximity here.

[pvb] 30/1/2020 10:21

Maybe all those Remainers who stockpiled food at home prior to Brexit will be the ones coming out of this smiling?

Just a thought. ;-)