Hayward Tyl Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 17/11/2016 20:26

Well that doesn't stack up at all. If H2 revenue shoots up it's not all going to be paid immediately. Working capital and debt will increase further in the short to medium term.

[rogerrail] 17/11/2016 19:32

Hi Rhomboid, completely understand your caution on risk level, but from the information provided by the company as well as the video interview on proactive investors I have a more optimistic view that debt wont significantly deteriorate further regardless of the final revenue figure (within reason).

[meijiman] 17/11/2016 13:05

Yes the ceo has always seemed desperate to get the share price up. wonder why?

[rhomboid] 17/11/2016 12:42

Hi Roger
You might be right in your interpretation & understanding but if they miss in H2 they're in covenant breach territory and would need a rights issue IMHO so the risk is much too heightened for the likely reward

[rogerrail] 17/11/2016 12:24

IMO its not out of the question that HAYT can turnover £50m-£60m in the second half,
They turned over £40m in second half of last year and they have added capacity at Luton since. It's worth noting that historically aftermarket orders principally MRO are approximately double OEM orders and they have £60m of short term AM orders in hand to negotiate with a target to book and fill £35m.

The following is a very telling statement from iii article and possibly backs up my comments on post 1135 re the timing of stage payments which impacted invoiced revenues in Period 1:

"Inefficiencies caused by underutilized resources also meant an overrun on a single contract at PB tipped the division into the red for the half-year".

[...]

Now lets assume they fall short of target but with significantly increased revenue to last year which is likely, coupled with a forecast for further growth into the next FY, the market wont be focused on the FY results but the forward run rate and HY will be viewed as a blip. Certainly the BOD is giving a very strong message that this is how things will pan out.

Personally I sold a few but holding on and tempted to buy back as I like the long term story here.

[topvest] 17/11/2016 10:50

I think a break-even result is about the best they can hope for. I will keep on my watch list, but very high risk. They should have had a profit warning already and got it over with!

[shaker44] 17/11/2016 00:02

I wonder. He or his shadow is sitting on quite a loss now. Averaging down will need deep pocket

[gargoyle2] 16/11/2016 18:52

Wonder if we'll see Richard Sneller adding.

[rhomboid] 16/11/2016 15:50

On reflection I've sold my remaining stake today, the risk is too great and I'd become too attached to the idea of being right in seeing how everything played out. With the debt level here I'm off to safer pastures for now. I'm delighted that there was a big buyer or two around over the last 2 days as otherwise the shares would have been a lot lower. Good luck to those who hold

[meijiman] 15/11/2016 21:34

Worth a punt at 50p -but no more.

[rhomboid] 15/11/2016 20:59

Hi topvest
I know banks can be poor judges but what makes you believe RBS would extend their indebtedness to a loss maker client without serious DD? Credit committee decisions in those circumstances tend to be very risk averse.

[topvest] 15/11/2016 20:44

Awful results. Very likely profit (or should I say loss) warning coming in 3/4 months time. The CEO has lost all credibility. Glad I'm out. Right decision. Going out of business is just as likely as achieving their profit target in my view!

[rhomboid] 15/11/2016 20:11

I sold 2/3 today as debt now makes this a high risk play, I'm happy to let the remainder roll as I like the underlying markets. This is now a binary play on mgt doing what they say, I still suspect they'll pull it off but my position size is now at a level where a failure will hurt but not decimate.not sure why but there was a willing buyer for all the stock I threw on the market so there are some deep pocketed fans out there.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 15/11/2016 17:58

I'm out too. I just can't see them making full year forecasts.

[cockerhoop] 15/11/2016 08:14

Rhomboid,

Bill and fill of £35.8m in 16 weeks is still a big ask, only skimmed the results but is profitability mentioned as they need more than £55m H2 at historic margins to hit profit targets?

[shanklin] 15/11/2016 07:44

Is there any commentary on whether HAYT is paying considerably more for the generosity of the bank?

[topvest] 15/11/2016 07:17

"Of the £48.0 million order book at 30 September 2016, £21.3 million is expected to be recognised as revenue in 2H2017. That leaves the Group with a requirement to "book and fill"1 orders of £35.8 million in 2H2017, which is expected to be drawn from opportunities currently under negotiation plus regular aftermarket orders of over £60 million."

Still seems to me unbelievable that they are not admitting defeat for this year given H2 sales already certain are only at the same level as H1 at this stage. Still a very big H2 hole to fill!

[cockerhoop] 14/11/2016 23:05

Forgive me for being cynical but the latest release suggests that they have had to be very positive on hitting the stretch market expectations for H2 to allow the restructuring of debt to take place. Management appear to have been very skillful in getting the banks on-board to avoid having to report a covenant breach.

I'm certainly less inclined to believe they'll hit full year numbers now despite the contract wins.

[cerrito] 14/11/2016 19:31

jeanesy my question as well

[jeanesy] 14/11/2016 19:25

Dont really get this as the results are supposed to be out tomorrow aren't they? Why send an RNS today?

[shauney2] 03/11/2016 08:40

More on Richard Sneller from Shares magazine

[red_shed2000] 02/11/2016 19:25

Well I got this one wrong....so far. Half of me pleased to see despite being out but the other half is tempted to short because I just don't believe the story......

Don't like shorting but might make an exception. Going against the market never a good idea though!

Decisions....!

Good luck all whether short or long!

[topvest] 02/11/2016 18:42

Certainly interesting. To correct the point above milestone payments do not drive revenue recognition at all. It's based on work completed.

[p1nkfish] 02/11/2016 17:44

He's in odx and pim too.
Pim at about sub 15p.
Add Bango too.