Hays Share Discussion Threads

[pkvidean] 10/4/2002 10:27

JohnDS, what a woefully shallow comment! IMHO.

If you don't like it - tough! Use one of the other threads or create your own!

[johnds] 09/4/2002 21:58

What has the above got to do with thoughts on Hays. Anyone can monitor their own stocks and I think it's best to keep your own monitoring to yourself and free up space for comment.

[pkvidean] 05/4/2002 15:17

Re above :-

Very difficult to glean a trend during this first week. Pretty much a mixed bag with muted support across the board. Obviously the various crises are throwing a large spanner into the works and, even in these Extremist markets, there continues to be no clear pattern.

The good progress from HAS earlier in the week will no doubt continue if the recovery is perceived as a reality but I think the "experts" must be seriously divided and scope for the quarterly con is limited although continued support for the Media sector from analysts/brokers suggests to me that a 10% initial retracement could be on the cards.

Have decided to monitor the aforementioned stocks and add in SPW, KEL, British Land & Safeway to the forthcoming monitoring exercise to see if a pattern starts to emerge.

Will post again at weekend with movements!

IMHO. DYOR.

[pkvidean] 29/3/2002 16:46

As previously threatened, I have created a more appropriate thread title for HAS which is a lynch-pin of any current, cyclically biased, portfolio.

Hope this view does not come back to haunt me but :-

This is the make or break quarter for investors. The decisions that are taken in the first 7-10 days of Q2 2002 could have lasting implications. Beware the trojan horse! This is what is likely to happen :-

If the economic recovery is genuine then the "powers that be" will, as usual, try and con you at the start of the quarter. Initially, they will move the defensive growth stocks up to new highs! Companies such as RBOS, WOS, RB., IMT, MKS, SN., DGE & AZN will beat their already impressive highs. In parallel with this, key cyclicals such as ICI, CKSN, HG.,WPP, LOG, HAS, CW. & PO. will move sharply back from their partial recovery interim highs. Do not be fooled - hold and buy more cyclicals circa 11/04/2002 and cash and/or short your defensive growths.

If the alleged economic recovery is perceived as a false dawn then the converse will happen and the winning strategy will be to cash your cyclicals as they attain, in many cases, 3 quarters of successive highs and then short them as the valuations become stretched. In parallel with this, defensive rotation will probably occur as the defensive growths give way to the high yielding defensive stalwarts such as utilities, real estate & food.

IMHO, DYOR.

[pkvidean] 16/3/2002 04:15

New interim base established of 169p yesterday. Weakness looked like some general sectoral negativity (rather than company specific) as CPI also hit. Also, it was yet another defensive day so many cyclicals were giving ground. Sure to have a blob quarter in Q1 now but how low HAS will travel towards 122p is anyones guess. FWIW, I think they may push it down to historic P/E of 15 which equates to 143.75p. That will be my Add target! IMRO.

[pkvidean] 08/3/2002 22:24

HAS looking vg to me now! Think investors are viewing this as one of the key recovery parallel stocks. If US holds up and UK economy starts to improve then HAS should get closer to its 1999 rating. Traded off a maximum P/E of 46.9 in 1999 (before the bubble). Do not think it will get that high again but about 38 would seem a realistic target. Prospective P/E is currently about 24ish - anyone care to check?, so 38/24 * 187.75 = 297.25p target. Probably will not achieve this until Q4 but if markets start to fly then could easily achieve this target in Q2! IMRO.

[shayler1] 07/3/2002 01:09

by then they will bounce and i will have sold them ready to move into hays or logica if it has another 5% fall tomorrow

[blackday] 07/3/2002 00:08

they could bounce off it but i think they will be a bit cheaper first thing tommorow. its just a hunch to many sellers today. shire now that will bounce off four pounds, everything indicates shire to hit four pounds, at least with hays you know where u stand, shire is untested teritory it will bounce but the charts which predictedc a sudden fall when it went below eight pounds closing point to four pound as a support level.

[velvetide] 06/3/2002 11:31

looks like there're bouncing off february's low to me

[shayler1] 06/3/2002 11:20

blackday i'm waiting + hoping for this to keep dropping today + catch a bounce due to very few ftse 100 shares will drop -20% without a rebound except shire which is why i have bought into them for a second time.

[blackday] 06/3/2002 10:44

i agree it always bounces off 160 some tenpercent, anywhere near that the risks are so low its a strong trading buy and strong long term buy

[shayler1] 06/3/2002 08:59

these will stay down all day regardless of the markets direction bad news still coming out i'm in tomorrow early morning if they drop early tomorrow, basically these are a sound stock.

[pkvidean] 05/3/2002 18:07

Yes, Pat O Hat, I had the same feeling so was holding very light and did not get badly damaged. Results and outlook seemed somewhat anaemic but I think it maybe a case of lowering expectations (again) and still think they may have something in reserve which we might hear about later in the week. My low exposure allowed me to double my Long at about todays low (179p). HAS is still one of the best blue choip recovery plays for 2002/2003. IMRO.

[pat o hat] 05/3/2002 13:24

30p down! I really didn't want this to happen but had a feeling it might. I think HAS was on a slightly sentimental premium rating - it is very much a home grown City outfit. (Have you ever been to the actual Hays Wharf on the South Bank - nice upmarket shopping mall).

In the same sector Killik favours Mitie (MTO) which is a much more blue collar operation. Killik is usually wrong but I think they know about MTO. DYOR!

[gavincent] 05/3/2002 00:57

Ive gotta feelin their gonna go alot higher than that!

[nirvs] 03/3/2002 09:50

this baby's gonna go back up to 230p

[mbale375] 25/2/2002 00:23

being a royalmail worker this one is gem for long term,buyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[pat o hat] 25/2/2002 00:08

I sold this at 190. I agree with PK's last but one post - it has broken support & is heading on down.

[pkvidean] 24/2/2002 11:48

FWIW, HAS recommended in Sunday Express today!

[pkvidean] 17/2/2002 07:07

Apologies, the source is AFXF (not RNS).

[pkvidean] 17/2/2002 07:06

Looks like my little pot of gold theory has been developed by UBS Warburg who are speculating (see RNS) that HAS may embark on a major restructuring/refocus. The one thing they must not do, however, is to demerge (a la GKN & PO.) which would almost certainly cost them their FTSE100 place and result in poor short-term share price performance. IMRO.