Harvey Nash Grp Share Discussion Threads

[gleach23] 01/4/2016 09:45

Offer price firmed to a tad over 76p this morning

[gleach23] 31/3/2016 21:48

Nice 30k buy reported late on ISDX exchange.

It's reported as a sell but I happened to check the offer price on ISDX myself today and it was the same - ie 74.9.

Something has to move the share price sometime, the chart looks to have bottomed and be nicely poised to me and results are 4 weeks today so here's hoping for an upturn in the lead up.

[phillis] 08/3/2016 14:45

This business makes zero progress
net worth c £65m for four years on the trot and now a £10m write off plus costs to come

a bit of a mirage really, disappointingly

[zoolook] 08/3/2016 12:45

OK. Thanks for clarifying - T.A. is something I know even less about than value

[gleach23] 08/3/2016 12:19

This is another trade for me and continues to be so.

It's a trade based on the fact that the share price is 40% off where it was this time last year, that the market was factoring in bad news prior to the update (which I don't believe transpired but you apparently do) and the share price has reached support levels from which I have successfully traded before.

[zoolook] 08/3/2016 11:22

What did you see in the update that excited you?

I was perplexed that despite the profit increase the cash position was significantly lower. They haven't made any acquisitions in the last 12 months AFAIK only a disposal.

I have done OK in the past trading in and out of HVN but I'm not keen on buying at the moment despite new lows. Look at the static profit over the last 4 years despite rising sales. Not a great trend. And recruitment in the UK at least has been buoyant. Where is the trigger for the re-rating? The only compelling reason to buy is the dividend yield.

[gleach23] 08/3/2016 11:03

yup...I fully expected some kind of positive correction following the downward drift and have been waiting patiently...maybe it'll take some concrete numbers at the results come 28th Apr

[zoolook] 08/3/2016 08:46

What update? do you mean the one 10 days ago ?

[gleach23] 08/3/2016 08:22

Very disappointing reaction to the update so far...can only obtain online quotes to sell around 1,000 shares this morning :(

[gleach23] 04/3/2016 14:40

Well...about as much interest here as there was prior to the update!

Hopefully it'll be a case of it moving when we least expect it...

[rivaldo] 01/3/2016 13:42

Consensus forecasts post trading statement are...

year to 31/1/16 - 9.2p EPS, 3.88p dividend
year to 31/1/17 - 9.4p EPS, 4.04p dividend

That's around 6.4p of dividends to be collected in the next 16 months.

[edmundshaw] 29/2/2016 18:15

Yep, you're right, I was taking the %age difference the wrong way, I get similar numbers now. D'oh, sorry, blond moment.

Anyhoo, even better! :-)

I see no reason not to see a 10% hike as usual, it is likely to be safely sustainable for some time, and seems to follow the plan. (so circa 3.88p, i.e. at 75p a yield of 5.1733333333333333333% (approx). Will do me for now!

[speedsgh] 29/2/2016 16:34

edmund - see below, according to my records (which are admittedly not foolproof)...

TOTAL FY 2014/15 - 3.531p (+10.0%)
TOTAL FY 2013/14 - 3.212p (+10.0%)
TOTAL FY 2012/13 - 2.920p (+9.8%)
TOTAL FY 2011/12 - 2.660p (+9.9%)
TOTAL FY 2010/11 - 2.42p (+10.0%)
TOTAL FY 2009/10 - 2.20p (+10.0%)
TOTAL FY 2008/09 - 2.00p (+11.1%)
TOTAL FY 2007/08 - 1.80p

Regradless of 8.94% or 10%, we are effectively splitting hairs. I would still not expect to see an increase significantly greater than 10% in the current FY but will take it with open arms should it transpire.

[edmundshaw] 29/2/2016 14:27

To be precise, the average hike in dividend over the last 8 years has been 8.94%, and has been near enough that hike every year. Well over inflation... and easily sustainable this year.

[pastybap] 29/2/2016 11:36

Can anyone here explain something for me? I have only recently started placing some trades using L2 direct market access (in addition to my standard investment hioldings). I currently have a long position here. I placed a sell order this morning 0.25p inside the offer price which should in theory reduce the spread, and make my order the new offer price. As soon as I did this though, a new small order appeared and undercut me again by 0.5p. I though this was odd, so increased my price by 0.25p. The small order followed mine again to remain 0.5p lower. I then moved my price again, and still it stalked me!

Is this usual behaviour, and can anyone explain the purpose?

[speedsgh] 29/2/2016 11:11

I've still got 3.87p pencilled in for current FY. They paid 3.531p last FY + have consistently been growing the div by 10% per annum since the GFC so don't see why they will stray from the path on that. If they do, it will be a nice little bonus.

[speedsgh] 29/2/2016 11:07

riv - do you mind me asking where your data on forecasts comes from? TIA

[rivaldo] 29/2/2016 10:32

Latest forecasts post trading update - forecasts for the current year now showing an average 9.75p EPS, with around a 4p dividend:

2016 2017
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Panmure Gordon 26-02-16 BUY 9.29 9.28 3.85 10.30 10.30 3.93
Numis Securities 26-02-16 BUY 9.30 9.10 3.90 9.60 9.20 4.04

With net cash on the Balance Sheet too, HVN are far too cheap on a P/E of 7.8.

[zoolook] 26/2/2016 16:20

Not much to go on in the trading update. Looks like they've changed the format a bit from last year.

The most tangible figure is the cash of £0.2m down from £4m last year and £5m the year before.

Stayed my hand again

[gleach23] 26/2/2016 15:14

just picked up some more - a little surprised to be able to buy sub 75p still

[edmundshaw] 26/2/2016 15:03

I know some people have concerns about margins, debt (well that should be put to bed) and cyclicality, but the fact is that this company has performed for the last 10 years straight with increasing dividends every year.

[edmundshaw] 26/2/2016 15:01

I note the brokers are saying buy with target at 100p and 110p. Both targets are down, but as far as I can see they are just down because the share price has dipped (yes that makes little sense, and yes it is very common).

PE of 12 (remember no debt and good track record of growth) seems undemanding and puts a more reasonable target at over 120p.

[thorpematt] 26/2/2016 13:12

*£60m