Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Harvey Nash Grp LSE:HVN London Ordinary Share GB0006573546 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 128.50p 0 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
125.50p 131.50p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 885.65 5.36 4.80 26.8 94.4

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Date Time Title Posts
13/11/201810:31Fresh Horizons3,317
08/6/201811:01Harvey Nash interview with Zeus Capital-
01/5/201811:05Harvey Nash interview with Zeus Capital-
07/3/201814:08Zeus Capital Interview - Harvey Nash Group1
28/4/201614:09HVN - Charts and News86

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dangersimpson2: DBAY are value investors so they were never going to pay a high price, and while the offer doesn't look generous at all part of the rise in share price of the last year has been them buying & putting pressure on management to stop taking all the returns of the growing business in salaries. Being investors though means that if a reasonable counteroffer comes through I'm sure DBAY would accept. HVN should make a nice, earnings enhancing bolt-on for one of the larger recruiters, just hope one comes through with an acceptable offer in time.
edmundshaw: I think the activist investors are going to help draw more earnings from Harvey Nash. Tomorrow's results could make HVN look very cheap, with a definite possibility of a re-rating. Looking at last year's finals and the recent trading update gives me confidence to hold on to my overweight position here. But of course it is tomorrow's numbers that will drive the share price...
edmundshaw: If outlook stays good, Zeus are basically looking at a share price of 207p in three years time (adding back the time-cost discounting). Plus of course another perhaps 14p in dividends. Compelling indeed! Total CAGR by my reckoning of around 36% p.a. over the next three years.
davebowler: Zeus; Harvey Nash has released a trading update ahead of final results for the year ended 31 January 2018 this morning. Overall trading was in line with market expectations, with adjusted profit before taxation up c22% compared to the prior year. We are maintaining our headline forecasts on the back of these results, and continue to believe the valuation remains compelling at this juncture. § Trading update: UK & Ireland gross profit (38% of group NFI) is up 6% year on year, which we believe is above average for the sector, with demand improving through H2 in particular for technology recruitment despite widely reported Brexit-related market volatility. Mainland Europe (40% of group NFI) continues to be the key driver of organic growth in the Group, with Gross Profit up 5% overall year on year. The performance in the ROW (22% of group NFI) was weaker, driven by the groups restructuring efforts during the year. The company has reduced contractor numbers, closed loss-making offices and focused on its core markets. We would expect to see the benefits of this restructuring programme coming through in 2019E. § Performance drivers: Adjusted PBT growth of c.22% implies a full year number marginally ahead of our forecast of £10.6m. Full year net debt is expected to come in higher than forecast as a result of higher working capital commitments driven by the normalisation of debtor days during the year after a strong performance in 2017A. The business model is highly cash generative, trading cash generation has funded two acquisitions during the period, and financed the international restructuring programme. Acquisitions made during the year are expected to be earnings enhancing. § Forecasts: We leave our headline P+L forecasts unchanged following this update, we expect a 3-year EPS CAGR of 17.3% out to 2020E which we believe compares favourably with the sector average, albeit we note that we remain at the upper end of consensus for 2019E onwards. Clearly trading uncertainty remains across the sector, we will review our longer-term assumptions following the full year results announcement, when the company provides some more detail on the outlook. § Valuation: At last nights close price, Harvey Nash trades on an FY19 P/E of 6.4x (falling to 6.1x in 2020E) and an EV/EBITDA of 3.8x (falling to 3.3x in 2020E), a compelling valuation alongside an attractive 4.9% dividend yield. We remain comfortable with our blue-sky analysis in our initiation note (12 September 2017) showing the Group delivering an EBIT of £17.5-20.0m in the medium term, which implies a share price range of 154p-172p discounted back by 3 years at 10% applying a modest through the cycle P/E of 12x.
davidosh: Lightning can strike twice and it is almost exactly one year ago for Creston shareholders... To facilitate the deal, Dbay, the Isle of Mam Isle of Man-based financial services authority, has created a new entity; RedWhiteBlue Digital Marketing Services with the agreed share price expected to be paid by Creston on 20 December. Alex Paiusco, CEO of DBAY said: "We have been significant investors in Creston for over two years and are excited about this opportunity to help develop the business, alongside its management team and employees, and to fulfil its potential. The Acquisition is the culmination of our progressive interest in Creston and we are very pleased to have reached agreement with the Independent Creston Directors on an attractive cash proposal for Creston Shareholders".
deeppockets: Ridiculous that these Directors are getting so many shares. The share price has done nothing for years yet they get paid a fortune - CEO and Ops Director need to be moved. Ben there too long!
davebowler: Zeus initial comment;  Valuation: The Group trades at notably lower multiples to its UK recruitment sector peer Group. An FY18 EV/EBITDA of 4.5x failing to 3.4x in FY19 represents a 45% discount. On an PER basis, the Group trades on 7.6x FY18 earnings, a 37% discount. Our blue-sky valuation assuming the Group can reach £17.5m 20.0m of EBIT implies a share price of 165-175p, a potential upside of >50% to current levels. We believe the shares offer a compelling entry point for a company with an established track record of performing across the cycle, a cash generative business model and a solid balance sheet
mongrels3: Seems like a pretty positive AGM statement this morning. Also, good that they are addressing the central overhead level. If HVN can start to leverage better profitability from their strong turnover, the share price ought to respond positively. I wonder if DBAY has had any influence yet? It seems like they might.
dangersimpson2: They definitely have form for building up a large stake in an unloved company and then making an offer. See Creston. When they have the large stake I would imagine they would approach management about changes they would like to see, e.g. better cost control, lower management pay, improved strategy. If they engage and the business performs better they get their return through dividends & share price appreciation. If they management refuse to implement their suggestions then they make a takeover offer for the whole of the share capital and manage the business directly. As long as the business is sufficiently undervalued and responsive to change then they get a good return either way.
dangersimpson2: You have to be careful about direct comparison of margins since the different companies have different mix of permanent, contract & outsource revenue. Companies that most do permanent recruitment tend to have higher margins and therefore ratings. I'm not sure this is totally logical because one of the benefits of HVN is the balanced mix of the three revenue streams. HVN has always traded steadily in different market conditions due to this mix where as a high margin permanent recruiter will face losses in a recession. I view HVN a bit like an option - if someone like DBAY can come in and significantly improve margins then the share price will take off. If they muddle through as before the stability of their three income streams will provide downside protection, the share price won't do much but you get the income to re-invest elsewhere.
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