Harvest Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[sja123] 15/8/2016 16:08

“It's so simple, a dig, a small crush then put it in the back of a truck and deliver it”, Brian McMaster of #HMI

[h2owater] 15/8/2016 15:40

559 – Harvest Minerals, Malcy on Cairn & Parkmead
Justin Waite
15 August 2016

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/blogs/559-harvest-minerals-malcy-on-cairn-parkmead/

[andrbea] 15/8/2016 15:33

if they get a selling price of 60$ (some say $90/t), then the costs of $8/t are unbelievable
And with only 3% drilled of the property, a low mkt cap, near-surface project, close to target market and Vale's own mine running out in 2017 (so chance of hmi being snapped up)..., well, it looks a no-brainer IMO over the next 2 years......

[pilot48] 15/8/2016 15:29

Nice little pullback for new investors or anyone wanting to top up.

[trotterstrading] 15/8/2016 14:57

I'm in for £3.5k at 8.95 will add on further weakness if we get any. Looks a real cracker to me

[h2owater] 15/8/2016 14:46

Good podcast!

-Very cheap at present
_Loads of news to market over the next month!

[babbler] 15/8/2016 14:26

Who is selling large chunks though. Wish they would hurry up!

[soulsauce] 15/8/2016 13:28

Yes seems like a little gem in the making. Thanks sja.

[pilot48] 15/8/2016 13:19

Well worth a listen. Covers the gamut of short term and long term aims of the company.
Looks like the 50-60 sale price is what the company are aiming for against a 7 dollar all in cost. Plenty more news to come on Arapua and possibly some more projects...

[sja123] 15/8/2016 12:29

Bit of PR...Brian McMaster on Voxmarket podcast this morning...

Share price taking a breather today....

[pilot48] 15/8/2016 09:27

Will see some fun and games until next news. Hopefully we will hear about the agronomic study this month, which should be more refined than the scoping study in terms of sale prices and operating expenses. Also looking to hear about the appointment of contractors as that should firm up the capex. Trial mining permit outcome too.

[andrbea] 15/8/2016 09:18

Brazil still needs potash:
Aug 9 (from a Gulf states article)

For instance, from January to July of this year, Brazil imported USD 435 million in fertilizers from the GCC, an increase of 25% in comparison to the same period of 2015, according to data from the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC) compiled by the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce.

[h2owater] 14/8/2016 16:10

LSE Bob:_Bird 4,647 postsHMI Summary (1of2)Brief summary of the company and hopefully gives a flavour of the sheer size of this beast. I have to confess I only came across HMI on Sunday and spend a few hours researching it. Suffice to say I was scrambling to get as many as I could first thing on the Monday and have averaged up since.Harvest Minerals:? Market Cap: ?7.5m? No Debt? Cash at current point in time: $2.2m ($3.6m as of end of march have deducted what I think conservative likely cash burn is since then)? Shares in Issue: 94m, 60m of which are with institutions & directors. Free float = 34m Management Team:Experienced team involved in establishing some of the most recent successful mining companies such as:? Hunnu Coal (coal in Mongolia sold for A$477m)? Avanco Resources (AVB-ASX, A$170m, copper in Brazil) ? Highfield Resources (HFR-ASX, A$460m, potash in Spain)So they have a fantastic record of driving SH value, they know how to scale a business and in the Potash mining sector. Brazil is the largest importer of fertilizer worldwide importing over 70% of its total fertilizers. Interestingly however the Government has stated that by 2020 it wants to be 100% self sufficient in fertilizers. So this means there is a huge drive to source local fertilizer which falls very nicely in to the hands of HMI having 4 large scale Brazilian Potash / Fertilizer plays all in various stages of development:Arapua:Scoping study today confirms the following:? Production to start this September? Extremely low capex to get in to production circa $800k which can all be covered by existing cash? Production volume (initial) 100ktpa.? All in production cost (including admin) of $7.34/t and expected to sell at av $60/t. This is a huge profit margin by anyone?s standards. ? Gives yield to a projected net profit of ?3.8m pa (Apply conservative PE of 10 to give an idea of MC = ?38m)? Mine life of 7 years.? All based on just 3% of the mineralisation on this wholly owned asset. So You can extrapolate that how you like?. 215 years of potential very profitable mining! OR the $20m discounted NPV on this 3% could be extrapolated to $700m for the whole asset? Both of HMI?s Sergi and Capela projects are close to Brazil?s only producing potash mine, the Taquari-Vassouras project owned by Vale (Value being one of Brazils largest operators) . Interestingly the Taquari-Vassouras is due to run out in 2017, meaning they will be looking elsewhere to acquire to continue operations.Sergi ? World Class asset ? NPV of $350-$408m? Situated within 40km south of Vales Taquari potash mine and plant. Low capex due to located near to Vales existing infrastructure.Early_Bird 4,647 postsHMI Summary (2of2)Capela:? Located right on the door step to Vales operations ? 3D seismic confirmed that the Capela Potash Project is the possible northern extension to Vales Taquari-Vassouras Potash Mine to the south.? 3D seismic at the Capela Project has also confirmed potential salt layers at shallow depths of 235 - 325 meters.? Potentially huge potash play with further drilling in pipe. Key for the above two projects, they are right next door to Vales operation that is exhausted in less than 12 months! Vale have the full operation but no potash, so entriely likely Vale are looking to take out one of the Capela / Sergi or potentially HMI as wholeSo that?s my brief summary of HMI?. As I say only came across this a few days ago and nearly fell off my chair when I saw the tiny MC! I can only conclude its due to the reluctance of the BOD to put out anything remotely rampy has meant they have flown under the radar since listing! No bad thing in the long run as there's been some corporate transactions to work through to get the company in a good shape, raise, consolidation etc now it's all lined up with production round the next bend! Game changing time for HMI IMO

[pilot48] 12/8/2016 23:31

No worries. It's interesting with other Brazil focused companies that they have gone awry due to financing and developing large projects straightaway (example of one company below). Beauty of HMI is they're taking a bitesize approach with the trial mine and reaching the producer phase much earlier than their peers.

hxxp://mbacfert.com/news/news-details/2016/MBAC-Fertilizer-Reports-FY2015-Results/default.aspx

[serratia] 12/8/2016 23:18

Thanks pilot will keep investigating.

[pilot48] 12/8/2016 22:17

Would suggest a canter through the recent HMI releases as well as the interviews they have done on Proactive Investors and Sharepickers. Can't really look at the numbers from other companies and suggest they apply here when the company are setting out their own numbers for investors to analyse.

[pilot48] 12/8/2016 22:11

The project benefits greatly from being located in the Brazilian Cerrado, the most robust and expanding agricultural region in Brazil. Combined with good existing infrastructure at and in the vicinity of the Project, including easy road access to established regional towns of Patos de Minas, São Gotardo, Araxá and Uberlândia, transportation costs for the product are significantly reduced.

[pilot48] 12/8/2016 22:10

All in production costs are $7.34. Sale price is not confirmed but RNS considered NPVs based on sale prices from USD15-115m. Beaufort estimate $30. It's a simple mining operation and done on a small scale. DANF isn't a standard product so can't use Du Solo's numbers as it depends on the type of product Harvest sell. I would focus on the numbers in the scoping study and from upcoming newsflow.

[serratia] 12/8/2016 21:21

Some thoughts - Andrbrea started me doing some digging.

Looking at other Brazilian producers.
Vale are taking a hit on fertilisers in Q1 with EBITDA down to 6.9%.Potash prices under pressure. Prices down to $208/ton.
Dusolo made a loss of $1.2m on $1.1m sales at the half year. One of their claimed advantages is that their mine is in the middle of the agri areas so transport costs minimalized. At the present selling price transport costs would be significant.

[goodbloke1] 12/8/2016 19:57

Babbler.You sure they are buys.From the time and nearby trades they look like sells ?

[babbler] 12/8/2016 16:23

2x100k to add to the one earlier..

[pilot48] 12/8/2016 14:48

Less if you factor in management shares