Harmony Energy Income Share Discussion Threads

[james2019] 29/1/2024 18:52

Great this is back up it went offline.

[tr2020] 29/1/2024 18:22

Nice agree

[nickrl] 29/1/2024 18:17

@TR2020 my ramble at #186 gives the background my assessment on whats driving income then on #151 i reckoned they need 13m for the current divi but have 8m also needed for a loan then the inv mgr wants a cut currently 4m. Using BESSanalytics data they are generating 15m pa currently including capacity mkt payments that they are now receiving across the visible assets but also a few aren't trading in the BM so maybe c17-18m so c5m short. Inv mgr could be generous at a cut back a bit but divi will be main source of any short term savings but down at this share price level even a 50% cover leaves a reasonable yield.

Im interested in this but really want to see these or GRID respond to the significant mkt movement first as my assessment could be wildy out either way so DYOR.

[tr2020] 29/1/2024 17:55

Agreed so what's you view?Buy hold sell ??

[nickrl] 29/1/2024 17:52

@TR2020 ive certainly got my detailed understanding of the background to these assets and how the market works from MODO. In fact not many investments where there is so much transparency on the data that drives income if you have time to manipulate it.

[tr2020] 29/1/2024 17:24

Very good tool, MODO, is also great. They release free content on social media, but their paid offerings can be quite expensive.I think BESS has had a tough year but long term it looks positive... Good buy still

[nickrl] 29/1/2024 16:48

@TR2020 they had disappeared a while back so good to see back online. Just hit the 365 button and compare to last 30 days you can see how reduced income is. HEIT showing as top last 30 days but at 32k/MW that generates 11m pa the divi is 8m the loan is 8m and the inv mgr want something so divi has to give.
Edit not all assets are necessarily being valued by bessanalytics as they only have visibility of units registered to the Balancing Mechanism.

[tr2020] 29/1/2024 16:30

https://www.bessanalytics.comThis is helpful

[tr2020] 29/1/2024 16:30

Harmony Energy – The best assets in GB but leverage is higher than the peer group. We expect there will be greater liquidity for secondary transactions in the sector for a 2 hr asset over a 1hr asset. The fund has the highest dividend in the sector and along with high financing costs this will be causing a squeeze that will need to be addressed given the revenue backdrop.Last update from analysts I can find

[orinocor] 29/1/2024 16:15

haha it was just some mad fund manager.

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 15:39

Drax biomass is a total farce, Private Eye have been on it for yonks (tho not as long as they were on Horizon/Fujitsu, since 2010).

Wandering OT. The two-name geezer isn't necessarily conclusive of anything at HEIT, but they'd be helping themselves if they issued an RNS for a 10%+ fall.

[nickrl] 29/1/2024 14:49

@Specto thats him although he's only director of the trading companies not the REIT but he is director of Harmony Energy who basically develop the individual schemes and then sell them to the REIT. He's not listed a major shareholder though.

Personally i was always weary of this market as it receives no subsidies unlike windfarms and solar and the tree burning DRAX.

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 14:30

Two names is usually a red flag..

This guy?



Conyngham Hall is council-owned, used as a business centre I think.

[jonwig] 29/1/2024 14:26

When this floated, I noticed that one of the senior managers was James Ritchie (aka James Ritchie-Bland). He founded Tekmar (AIM: TGP), a pipeline specialist with excellent prospects, but left before he was found to have presided over serial mismanagement, including an overstretched balance sheet.

I sold my Tekmar shares and left this well alone.

Sometimes that sort of thing is irrelevant, but I trusted my instinct. I see on the website that JR is described as a "serial entrepreneur". Some of his 43 enterprises were Tekmar and its subsidiaries, the others are apparently semi-, or fully-dormant.

[nickrl] 29/1/2024 14:05

@CWA1 one thing that is fact is income generation from batteries has significantly dropped. This is due to a number of things firstly the ancillary services mkt is now on an auction basis (its started as fixed high price so was easy money for early doors BESS) and prices have been driven down very low due to a lot of participants. GRID and HEIT saw this coming and re-orientated to chasing income from the Balancing & Wholesale Mkt. The former had issues over BESS units being skipped (too small compared to big old fossil fuelled power station) but ESO have changed the algorithms and now BESS being instructed considerably more but still penalised by it being in 15min lumps where as HEIT are all 2hr batteries. ESO has another change coming soon to alleviate this restriction. So that leaves Wholesale but even here with the price of gas having dropped back considerably you don't get a huge spread in prices everyday between low overnight and daytime peak to cover the costs. Round trip efficiency of batteries is 75-90% at best then you have all the other on costs so probably need 20-30% spread to make it worthwhile.

So all in all the environment has fundamentally shifted and the BESS kinda rode a wave last year with Ukraine crisis along with supply chain shortages post covid delaying commissioning kept the mkt short but last six months capacity is up 35% and its saturated and the pipeline is enormous. So this market is commoditised and i guess this what Jefferies are saying. Then with the generous dividends they pitched IPO's with are unsupportable especially as they both have debt as well now. So dividends certainly under threat but everything has its price but personally I want to hear from either of them now before picking any up.

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 14:03

Hint of an each-way market now.

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 13:58

51.9999p, on a 52p bid.

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 13:57

Good luck; as long as it's not an average.. ;)

52.9999p to buy now on a 53p bid. Let us know what the sell quote is.

[cwa1] 29/1/2024 13:55

Just to be contrary, I've taken a tiny, fun sized, punt at 53.4p. Watch it REALLY drop now :-))

[cc2014] 29/1/2024 13:53

My question would be with GRID at 70p, 55p for HEIT does not seem cheap given everything.

I'm passing. This sort of stock, you can buy as many as you like when it's falling but when you want to offload later you better hope you can find a market to sell into.

I guess at some point I might get tempted but not yet.

[orinocor] 29/1/2024 13:46

oh no. An announcement is required for a fall of this size

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 13:45

It's red or black, but may still come up with green zeros.

Can't stand the MM-controlled stocks. I know they all are, but MM's won't be the losers here. It'll be the customers of whichever fund is selling, and anyone who failed to get lucky with their falling knife buy.

[cwa1] 29/1/2024 13:41

Anyone tempted, by the fall, with a punt? Or too risky and best wait for an announcement(or not)?

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 13:40

Most of the "sells" are buys, because they're selling at bid. Not even a fraction of a penny over it - current buy price 54.6p on 54.6/55p quote.