Harmony Energy Income Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 04/2/2024 23:42

not sure what you are on about. the statement is about the company generating sufficient revenues to cover costs.

[nickrl] 04/2/2024 23:13

@tsmith that brokers comments sums it up for shareholders "it was generating enough cash to pay interest and fund costs" ie no mention of shareholders.

[tsmith2] 04/2/2024 22:42

Sachin Saggar, analyst at Stifel, a corporate broker to Harmony, said it had the best quality UK assets of the three listed battery funds and he did not have concerns it could fall insolvent as it was generating enough cash to pay interest and fund costs.He said the main difference in its approach from GRID was lowering leverage through asset sales. 'It's unclear how the sudden change in the revenue backdrop over the past couple of months will be viewed by buyers, but it will certainly shift the balance of power in a negotiation. If a sale anywhere close to prior valuation is possible, it will go someway in validating the thesis for longer duration batteries.'The flipside is that if buyers are willing to pay close to NAV, then there is enough capital in the sector that someone could bid for the trust materially below NAV, but above today's share price to take the entire portfolio private,' he added.Harmony plans to publish its annual results and first quarter NAV at the end of this month.

[tsmith2] 04/2/2024 16:35

tomorrow's action could be interesting

[tsmith2] 02/2/2024 16:17

good strength on bid coming through now.

[spectoacc] 02/2/2024 13:55

Brilliant, thanks @jonwig - had always wondered.

Interesting, some other analysts who've not been afraid to tell it like it is, and lost their jobs as a result, have gone on to do very well - Terry Smith another.

HEIT buyers - worth a read of the Jeffries note, even if you disagree with it. NAV is even more a fiction here than it is over at the REITs or the PE ITs IMO.

[tsmith2] 02/2/2024 13:01

Large sells totalling 1.7 printed. Afternoon price action should be interesting to see if seller has been cleared. Feels v much like capitulation

[nickrl] 02/2/2024 12:38

@genistar #237 as absolutely spot on NAV is illusory here and people are being sucked in. Whats worse is the company do their own valuation as well they should call for an independent valuation.

[jonwig] 02/2/2024 12:20

Spec, #212 -

It was Derek Terrington, and he lost his job because Robert Maxwell went ballistic when the C R A P was pointed out to him. Threatened to sue. (Maxwell made Trump look like a beginner.)

Now works for Hardman & Co:

[genista71] 02/2/2024 12:07

"I’m not sure that’s remotely merited. Huge disconnect to NAV"

The NAV is fiction. A number pulled out thin air. It tries to calculate revenues and costs 20/30yrs out and discount back. Yet the company cannot predict revenues 6m out..so the NAV is meaningless. What matters is real revenues and they are awful. So of course the price reaction is merited.

[tsmith2] 02/2/2024 11:59

Any meaningful commentary on today's update?

[tsmith2] 02/2/2024 10:58

Yes, and I'm not sure that's remotely merited. Huge disconnect to NAV

[cruelladeville] 02/2/2024 10:33

Shares priced for complete collapse and insolvency, it seems today?

[robertspc1] 02/2/2024 10:13

Traded some GSF for HEIT. Overreaction IMHO. Might take time to recover but could be a rewarding wait

[nickelmer] 02/2/2024 09:29

Last person to leave please switch the electricity off

[nickrl] 02/2/2024 09:09

@specto we could have told them that months ago revenues have been dropping since the autumn. Take Pillswood 1 12mths ago it was generating revenue of £61/MW/yr that has dropped to £33/MW/hr in the last month. It does have the benefit of one year capacity mkt contract but that is a fixed income which they only receive on the derated part of the rating but every little helps. By the end of this month we will have results for T-1 for 2024 delivery year (1/10/24-30/9/25) to know how many units, if any, have won a new contract. Yes they have a T-4 contracts as well but that wont pay out till 2026.

The way these operate means revenue is reported through the opcos but doesn't get aggregated upto the topco (HEIT) even the holding company doesn't consolidate results. So the value of HEIT is what they, and it is they as its not an independent valuer like REITs, decide what they want to put a value on their investments. It seems to me they will attempt to prop up NAV by using assumptions that the good times will return but that is debatable given current market dynamics and the wider buildout.

Oh and like GRID no offer to lower inv mgr fees no BoDs wading in at least API had some humility over the refi fiasco and cut the inv mgr fee a tad. Personally i see divi cut for sometime but until we get better visibility about their working assumptions im sitting it out.

[pottsypotts] 02/2/2024 09:08

Relentless punishment again, do you think the market believes the RNS this morning is a bit smoke and mirrors

[cruelladeville] 02/2/2024 09:05

Down another 10%. RNS wasn't disastrous news this morning?

[tr2020] 02/2/2024 08:21

Isn't this exactly what we asked for & expected? It's not bankruptcy, and they have a plan! Still, think this is a solid long-term play."

[robertspc1] 02/2/2024 08:18

It's not exactly the Armageddon the share price now reflects. Will add a few to the pension pot

[spectoacc] 02/2/2024 07:07

Absolute zero credibility. Is this a timely t/s?

"BESS revenues for the year ended 31 October 2023 were markedly lower than revenue generated in the same period in 2022. Whilst a reduction from the remarkable highs of 2022 was expected and built into third party revenue forecasts, the scale and the speed of the reduction has exceeded market expectations."


You don't say. We could have told them that a week ago.

Dividend gone, but hey - the NAV is great, look here, look here.

[panshanger1] 01/2/2024 13:47

Pretty low volume here today though Much more going through at GSF and GRID

[robertspc1] 01/2/2024 13:18

Clearly the management have been caught out by the GRID announcement. I expect they are locked with advisers working on an RNS. Tricky balance as they need to acknowledge market conditions and reassure over debt at the same time

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 13:14

Management may not know of course! But agree it badly needs a t/s, particularly post-GRID.

And agree bankruptcy is a bold call.

[rat attack] 01/2/2024 13:06

Thoroughly disgusted that the management do not have have the competency to provide an update to the market, after all there have been several 10%+ falls in the share price now. The Company will argue they are in a closed period, but it is now over 3 months since the year end, a ridiculous period of time given the simplistic nature of the business. In addition anything they do say is linked to increasing NAV, but it the underlying market conditions that are relevant here; all remarkably quiet! Interesting to know what the T&C of the NW accordian are?

Jefferies have clearly identified issues with the current market dynamic, but make no reference to cash; have the Company really used up £22million, even with £2million operating costs this 2nd half? Dividend cut by all means, but bankrupt I am not convinced!