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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harmony Energy Income Trust Plc | HEIT | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | 0.19% | 52.60 | 16:24:21 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.50 | 52.50 | 52.60 | 52.60 | 52.50 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| EQUITY INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.02 | 07/12/2023 | 08/12/2023 | 22/12/2023 |
| 01/09/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.02 | 14/09/2023 | 15/09/2023 | 29/09/2023 |
| 23/05/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.02 | 01/06/2023 | 02/06/2023 | 16/06/2023 |
| 26/01/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.02 | 02/03/2023 | 03/03/2023 | 17/03/2023 |
| 04/07/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.01 | 01/12/2022 | 02/12/2022 | 16/12/2022 |
| 04/07/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.01 | 14/07/2022 | 15/07/2022 | 29/07/2022 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 10/7/2024 23:18 by nickrl Couple of intersting articles on Modo.com. The first is an overview of June which shows a bounce back from Mays reduction to 99k/MW/yr (excl CM) across the BM registered portfolio. HEIT will have done marginally better having 2hr batteries. Interesting that frequency response services has increased considerably looks like BESS providers are shifting to trading in wholesale mkt reducing units available for frequency response so prices going up. So far so good but 2nd article is about capacity or rather the significant shortfall in Q2 vs what was planned to be commissioned leaving 700ish MW to be deferred into Q3 or later. So we will have to see if pricing pressure returns as and when these assets come on line. |
Posted at 03/7/2024 15:54 by nickrl @CDV silence doesn't mean informal conversations have taken place. HEIT has the best 2hr portfolio in the UK currently but there not going to give it away. |
Posted at 28/6/2024 11:28 by nickrl Interims paint a picture of woe in getting the final sites energised and will drag on into Q3 now.Looking ahead when is this going to generate enough free cash to fund the dividend remains uncertain - they say 2025 maybe. So extrapolating their table on income and assuming they maintain 57k/MW/yr (bess analytics says its 60k/MW/yr) that will generate 23m/pa. Currently the running costs at SPV level are taking 42% of revenue although given round trip efficiency is 88% that seems quite high to me but i will have to interrogate heit and see if they explain more. If correct leaves 13m of which 9m will go on interest charges. Then inv mgr wants their cut 1.8m directors 0.3m other exp although they ought to full away with full buildout. So maybe 1-1.5m free cash so less than 1p/share. What i might be missing here is that the above doesn't fully reflect the T-4 contracts commencing from October which would add in another 2m so maybe 3p/share is a possibility. Still fee share price is overvalued even on that basis but not by much. |
Posted at 10/6/2024 19:21 by cruelladeville Thanks. I've read the RNS again. Yes, you're right, the for sale has gone up. It might not be a bad thing entirely. Building BESS from a standing start now involves long waits for grid connections and much more expensive construction materials and labour costs. So a ready built set of almost new operating assets of 2 hour duration should be an attractive purchase. Certainly, for a pragmatic management, a complete portfolio sale should get some consideration. Anyway, HEIT is too small to survive long term on it's own, I think. |
Posted at 10/6/2024 17:07 by cruelladeville Article in Citywire talking about Octopus and GRID says HEIT has put itself up for sale. The whole portfolio. I can't see anything from the company about that? Is it press speculation or something more solid? |
Posted at 30/5/2024 08:52 by nickrl So HEIT following in GRID footsteps and declaring no divi for 2024 now but expecting to be able pay out in 2025. Not really sure what is going to change over the next 6mths to improve the revenue position given what they are now saying about forward energy forecasts. Certainly taking a harsher line than GRID. They tell us that 100k/MW will support 8p divi which is useful to know but need to back fit the data.They are soft marketing the portfolio and looks like if someone makes a sensible offer they will liquidate the lot. |
Posted at 15/4/2024 21:17 by nickrl Thing with HEIT is every BESS is registered in the balancing mechanism unlike GRID where less than half are so you get a pretty good view from bessanalytics of likely revenue generation albeit that isn't the exact revenue as they have to make a lot of assumptions.The last few weeks has been above average wind production which brings the volatility into the market that provides optimum conditions for HEIT to exploit but will likely drop off as summer proceeds so wouldn't take it as the new normal but balancing reserve is certainly providing an additional boost. So using the 90 day average (40k/MW/yr) gives c10m trading income + capacity mkt payments of c3.4m ie 13.4. Expenditure we know on the loan is going to absorb 8.9m then looking at AR23 they provide an unaudited consolidated account of the subsidiaries which has the following costs Investment Adviser 2.1m (will drop as NAV falls) SPV costs 2.5m (presumably the running costs of the BESS sites) Holdco costs 2m (no idea what they could be) So no way dividend is being restored anytime soon based on 90 day average but at current 30 day rate there is a possibility of surplus cash to fund c1-1.3p dividend so at best barely 3% yield. I'll keep it on watch for the time being but don't see divi restoration anytime soon. |
Posted at 06/3/2024 14:21 by cc2014 @nickrl.FWIW I think the balancing mechanism will get sorted over the next 3-6 months and revenues will begin to flow to the battery providers. There appears to be a huge lump of batteries coming on line over the next few quarters which will keep prices depressed but my guess is that it will start sorting itself out towards the end of the year. Not to the long run prices in HEITs NAV model but to something measurably higher. Regrettably I expect HEIT will have to bin the next dividend as well and then cut it to a lower level. I'm sort of open to persuasion that this could be the bottom and might not be a bad entry point but on the other hand I worry about one more step down in the share price first as the dividend gets binned next quarter. I also worry that HEIT is at the top of tables in terms of it's revenue even when compared with other new two hour batteries and that either means they have better optimisation (I'm very doubtful on that) or they are thrashing (cycling) the batteries more often which will impact on battery life but no doubt will not show up for a while. |
Posted at 06/3/2024 07:42 by cc2014 Cruella,I doubt that a presentation aimed primarily at PI's is going to have any significant impact on the share price on the day it's done. Most of the money will be fund managers/institution The NAV isn't realistic though is it? They've knocked down the short term price forecasts (to levels which still look way too high imho) and left the long term ones as they are. If you believe the long term numbers then fair enough, HEIT is a bargain, but clearly the city boys and girls do not. As for selling the assets off which HEIT have committed to considering as have all the other battery, solar and wind providers we discovered they've more or less done nothing about it. Has any battery provider managed to sell an asset at any price yet to anyone except through an in-house related party transaction? No. It's not going to happen despite all the bluster because the NAV's are all wrong. Amd if they do start selling them off at say a 25% discount which would still be NAV enhancing that's going to cause deep questions. HEIT is and always has been covered in red flags. When within the first 5 minutes of the presentation they are talking about the value of their 500Mw pipeline, through their related parent company, I have to think they are barking mad? The City is screaming at them to de-lever and cut the debt, yet with a discount to NAV of 65% even mentioning the idea of more than doubling the size of the fund is misplaced. Overall I was left with a view that the forecast revenue curve is wrong and more and more batteries coming on line at a far higher percentage rate than renewables is going to put even more pressure on the revenue curve. HEIT may or may not be a good price here but I'm waiting for lower. There are plenty of other places I can put my money which offer a 10% return where I have good visibility of what's going on, so 37p to buy doesn't float my boat at this time. |
Posted at 29/1/2024 14:05 by nickrl @CWA1 one thing that is fact is income generation from batteries has significantly dropped. This is due to a number of things firstly the ancillary services mkt is now on an auction basis (its started as fixed high price so was easy money for early doors BESS) and prices have been driven down very low due to a lot of participants. GRID and HEIT saw this coming and re-orientated to chasing income from the Balancing & Wholesale Mkt. The former had issues over BESS units being skipped (too small compared to big old fossil fuelled power station) but ESO have changed the algorithms and now BESS being instructed considerably more but still penalised by it being in 15min lumps where as HEIT are all 2hr batteries. ESO has another change coming soon to alleviate this restriction. So that leaves Wholesale but even here with the price of gas having dropped back considerably you don't get a huge spread in prices everyday between low overnight and daytime peak to cover the costs. Round trip efficiency of batteries is 75-90% at best then you have all the other on costs so probably need 20-30% spread to make it worthwhile.So all in all the environment has fundamentally shifted and the BESS kinda rode a wave last year with Ukraine crisis along with supply chain shortages post covid delaying commissioning kept the mkt short but last six months capacity is up 35% and its saturated and the pipeline is enormous. So this market is commoditised and i guess this what Jefferies are saying. Then with the generous dividends they pitched IPO's with are unsupportable especially as they both have debt as well now. So dividends certainly under threat but everything has its price but personally I want to hear from either of them now before picking any up. |
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