Hambledon Mining Share Discussion Threads

[timgw] 13/11/2012 15:29

The 23rd can't come soon enough then we will all know whether or not we made a good decision for our own shares. Its all very well taking a loss to move on but leaving some in always gives hope. I'm disappointed but my own potential loss is not all that bad. Feel worse about being worked over by the natives, but then I'm old enough to realise it was more than just a possibility.

On the bright side, now off to see my new granddaughter only a few hours old. Hope I have some money to leave for her at the end of the day!!

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2012 15:21

The perma-bears have held sway over many of the gold/silver-related BBs for quite a while now as the sector as a whole has taken a veritable beating from the market in spite of gold/silver holding up pretty well.

And HMB has additionally been an easy target for the bears given it's problems stemming from the TD3 leak.

But just like at market tops (when the market runs out of buyers) one has to remember that at market bottoms there will always come a time when the last bear has sold.

Similar reasoning can be applied to the partial offer. The bears would have it that holders will lose whichever way the offer goes. ie if it fails then the share price falls back or if the offer succeeds the share price falls, holders get shafted, et al, ad nauseum! In the bear view there can be no positive outcome whatever happens!

However, the market does not always accommodate the bears ad infinitum and there will always come a time when sellers dry up. Frankly, given the current offer it seems illogical to me that there will be many willing sellers left after this offer deadline is passed.

Why on earth would people pass up on a 2p offer and then sell down their holdings below 2p if the offer goes through without giving the company the time to recover? And likewise, why pass on the 2p offer and then sell down to (0p presumably if you are a bear!) if enough holders were not tempted to take the offer, presumably because they see it as too low.

The bears have had it all their own way for quite a while now. It really is time for a bounce in the sector and for HMB.

[aaaaar] 13/11/2012 14:55

My only concern is where the share price will be pm on the 23rd!

I Sold 20% of my holding on the day of the announcement.
At the moment I am thinking of tendering 50% of my remaining and holding the rest.

IG are not being very helpful in terms of a deadline for my instructions, they keep stating there is no deadline!

[1nf3rn0] 13/11/2012 14:48

drewz, are you not the least bit suspicious then of any of the goings on in HMB over the years? You think they've always been acting in the best interest of shareholders and been honest about production targets etc? And you are happy that they are not being screwed over by the locals?

[loppylugs] 13/11/2012 14:44

Chip

Despite some negative reaction to your recent posts, I think most on this BB appreciate the logical reasoning that always seems to under-pin them.

Regards

[aaaaar] 13/11/2012 14:39

They work for AF! :)

[drewz] 13/11/2012 14:27

Elban, Inferno,

your 'critique' would carry more weight as fair objective analysis if you hadn't been slagging off HMB as a rubbish investment in every single post you've made for the last several years.

Ergo, no matter what the terms of this (or any other) offer, you would still be here slagging off HMB and advising investors to sell, get out, steer clear etc etc.

One can only wonder as to your motives.

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2012 13:36

dof,

Just been looking at the volume since the offer announcement.

Rough total of 64m traded - so approx 32m have changed hands - only around 3.2%!

So not likely to have much bearing in the grand scheme of things.

I assume some have worked out the arbitrage to the offer price and are likely to scalp the difference. So may well end up in AR's pot irrespective.

[chestnuts] 13/11/2012 13:36

dof what price did you get.?

[chestnuts] 13/11/2012 13:34

Doff

I asked their rep if they were buying at the market and he said not , but some one is, and as collected an awful lot they must have collected over 60m i havent checked that number just a guess, but i reckon they are collecting , i would if i was them .

[dofmeister] 13/11/2012 13:26

Sold 950,000 earlier that I had bought in recent months and they went immediately - somebody has been accumulating an awful lot of shsres over the last few weeks. Decided to hold onto the rest for the moment as they are getting snapped up far too quickly.

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2012 13:05

That reminded me to update Post#1 - not that I imagine too many are interested.

But what the heck :-)
Chip

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2012 12:54

sloppyg,

It has to be a possibility, that's true.

AR need approx 40%. Blackrock, TD Direct, Barclays, Selftrade & HL, hold around 21% - but many nominee holders may indeed do nothing.

In the worst case (for AR), the offer will fail and be removed. In which case AR will be left holding their 9% anyway.

We could speculate any which way as to how it might all play out. But, as usual, at a personal level, I will just fall back on my own interpretation of value irrespective of the AR offer - and act accordingly.

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2012 12:48

Inferno

I don't know where you get the 'the analysis of the "fundamentals" that you've posted many times' from. I last updated post#1 back in August and have not attempted any detailed rationale in a post here for yonks!

As it happens, thanks to the UG being put on C&M I currently actually arrive at fair price for HMB for CY12 of c. 1.8p - so not too far away from the current offer.

I am of the opinion that HMB is cheap on a forward basis - but that is purely my opinion and it is why I bought a lot of shares during the summer.

You hold the opinion that holders will be shafted, I think otherwise. But it is opinions that make a market so it is a good job we don't all agree :-)

What I have to decide now is how to deal with this offer and having a balanced BB discussion is one way to elicit other views.

[sloppyg] 13/11/2012 12:22

Chip - if those large holders actually remain so based on probable/possible, a raft of PIs offer no stock (intentionally or dont complete forms), some offer 60% then the likelihhod of achieving 50.1% first time seems unlikley ?

[1nf3rn0] 13/11/2012 12:21

Chip, you've been telling us for year HMB is cheap and it's only continued the trend of getting cheaper. I think you've failed to address the issues of working in Kazakhstan and not being on good terms with the authorities.

It's not as simple as just saying HMB's gold in the ground makes their market cap look cheap compared to say, a company with their resource in Canada, therefore HMB is a "buy".

And it's also why the analysis of the "fundamentals" that you've posted many times is always wrong - it doesn't take into account the liklihood of us being shafted - which is around 99.99%

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2012 10:57

Everyone has an opinion - and some like to express such opinion as fact!!

Reality is that an offer for the entire company would have meant closing out a few big holders at a loss. Clearly it would have been far easier and commercially advantageous to take out the entire company. So, in my view, this would imply that AR is sensitive to those few large holders and is effectively coming to an accommodation with them.

Henderson has increased from 65.5m to 83.5m since May - probable hold
Majedie are at 60.7m - possible hold
Blackrock have declined from 48m to 35.8m since May - likely to close
EBRD hold 58.7m - probable hold

A few others over 3% are mainly nominee holders which are not likely to be of any significance to AR.

Coupled with the retention of the London listing for at least 18 months and the commitment for AR to withhold from further share purchases for 12 months, this looks like it is offering inclusion for some existing holders whilst at the same time apparently inviting fresh participation to a couple of Institutions to join AR itself with Hanson Asset Mgmt being named as one. One can only assume that these institutions have been presented with a scenario which offers somewhat more than is currently on the table.

So like Drewz, I am pondering the risk/reward at what still looks like a very cheap price for the assets which are currently sunk costs within HMB.
Chip

[chestnuts] 13/11/2012 10:19

Chip

I would have had more respect if they had taken the company completly over for 2p, at least you know what they are upto, they are very slick in the way they operate, their spoke person is very aggresive and slick, i wish hmb had him from the beggining, they say they wont have a placing, well just think about this, their company is going to lend x amount without any gaurantee, this gaurantee will take hmb private.

[elban] 13/11/2012 09:54

Simple fact:

after they gain control, these guys will have the ability to shaft you.
They may act like old fashioned city gents and take into account your best interests in all their commercial decisions. Or they may act like the Russian oligarchs and stuff anyone that gets in their way.
Look at their history and decide which is likely!

Also, why are they only buying part?
Is it because this is the cheapest way of gaining control - and they will then pick up all the rest much cheaper later?

Or, do they really only want part of the profits and are kindly letting poor PIs share the future rewards?

Look at the travails of HMB over the last 18 months.
Have they been stinkingly unlucky - or were they the victim of local interests.
Having to shut the underground mine after so much expense - do you think that would have happened if the locals were running it??

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2012 09:26

drewz

I tend to agree with you. AR have stated that they will use best endeavours to maintain an AIM listing for a minimum of 18 months. They have also committed to NOT purchasing any more shares in HMB for 12 months from completion.

They could easily have mounted a total take-over of HMB and therefore been in a position to do whatever the conspiracy theorists threaten - but they have not taken that route at all. So far it looks quite a benign involvement compared to some of the hostile actions I have had inflicted on holdings elsewhere.

Overall, my perception of the offer is that it is beneficial and may well add value.

I have taken no decisions as yet but tend towards retaining a holding - at least in part.
Chip

[drewz] 13/11/2012 08:45

Most HMB holders are being asked to crystallise a loss at 2p offer.

If the gold price continues to climb through the next 2 years (as inflation takes off through accelerated money printing in US/EU), then HMB should recover its valuation from these lows, regardless of who owns the majority of the company, especially if a new CEO is found to replace the hapless Daffern.

The argument seems to be that, if successful, the new Kazak owners may delist HMB - in spite of their stated intention to preserve a public listing - and so freeze out minority holders to collar all the potential gains for themselves.

Or, if unsuccessful in their bid, they may use undue influence on the authorities to thwart HMB progress.

The alternative view may be that with a substantial Kazak shareholder on board the path will be cleared for HMB to accelerate its recovery.

Plainly holding on to HMB shares is extremely high risk, but 'twas ever thus investing in this stock.

Crystallise a loss now? Or hold tight for recovery over 24 months?

[boadicea] 12/11/2012 22:12

The worrying thing about the current share price is that it implies the value of the 40% non-acquired shares would be about 1.15p each
(i.e: 40% @ 1.15p + 60% @ 2p = 100% @ 1.66p)

On the basis that "African Resources' intention is to utilise its local knowledge and *ACCESS* in the jurisdictions in which Hambledon operates.... " [* my emphasis] euphemistically explains the way things operate in Kazakhstan (if we didn't already know), I think on balance that I had best accept the 2p and hope for a full exit.