H&t Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 14/4/2018 18:04

Interesting. I agree that recession is fairly close. Think H&T are a nice company though and happy to hold. It’s interesting that despite good results they haven’t opened a new store for 2 years. Anyone any views on why?

[aleman] 12/4/2018 10:11

Availability of unsecured credit fell at a faster rate than any point in the last recession in Q1 2018. It was the 5th consecutive quarter that unsecured credit availability fell. To make matters worse, demand for secured credit fell sharply. Default rates on unsecured credit have risen 4 consecutive quarters and actually been on a rising trend since Q1 2016. Defaults on small business loans fell strongly. Medium business defaults rose. Large business defaults rose strongly.



This credit report is very typical of what one might see at the start of a recession. Credit markets were already tightening moderately for a year. In Q1, they tightened sharply, though the outlook for Q2 suggest less again.

[thorpematt] 10/4/2018 08:12

Yes that augers well. "trading has remained strong" is probably a sensible read across for HAT.

[aleman] 10/4/2018 08:08

Ramsdens update indicates full year slightly ahead of expectations.

[aleman] 16/3/2018 14:17

I gather investors Chronicle have a issued a BUY recommendation at 358p.

[cfro] 15/3/2018 09:05

While we await new broker estimates i think we can safely and perhaps conservatively assume EPS for year ending '18 of say 35p.

So with the share price back down to 335p today the forward PE is only 9.6. That seems very good value to me.

[ntv] 15/3/2018 07:59

presume this is a one off charge

[ntv] 15/3/2018 07:58

new accounting rules reduce it by £6.3m

[ntv] 14/3/2018 19:32

guess some of the fall maybe due to the nett asset fall on change of accounting rules
i can see no other reason
if there is any slow real slow down in the economy then it could affect the loan book but pawnbroking should benefit
guess we will find out at some point
volume appears low

[cfro] 14/3/2018 17:44

Yes the brokers estimates are way too low given EPS came in at 30.94p.

[aleman] 14/3/2018 15:54

I reckon 2018 targets will be hit without any further growth this year. I expect these figures to be revised up as updates come through.

2018 2019
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Numis Securities Ltd 13/03/18 ADD 15.10 33.70 11.00 16.30 36.30 11.5

[cfro] 14/3/2018 14:27

Very subdued reaction to yesterdays results so more than happy to add to my holdings here today.

[topvest] 13/3/2018 21:05

Yes all going well and bodes well for another good year to come. Happy to hold.

[cfro] 13/3/2018 09:23

Yes, the online concept is a new source of future revenue and it is interesting that they said that it will sit alongside the bricks and mortar retail shops as some business cant be done purely online but equally for some customers the online offering suits.

btw a nice divi here to collect too. Paying nearly a 3% yield.

[interceptor2] 13/3/2018 08:47

Very pleased with these results with earnings coming in higher than I expected. Personal loans and online Jewellery sales were the highlight, both showing very strong growth, there was growth in all of their divisions.

Will be interesting to see how the www.est1897.co.uk website performs, I have just taken a look at the site and was pleasantly surprised at how easy it was to navigate, revenues of £1.0m from a low base of £0.1m is an earnings stream that could be increasingly significant.

Would like HAT to be a core holding now in the portfolio.

[aleman] 13/3/2018 08:03

Note how the figures have shown lending and online sales have grown through the year. If they just maintained year-end levels for the business, they would probably hit 2018 forecasts. Add in further growth to lending and online sales expansion over the next 12 months, and 2018 forecasts look like they will have to be raised a bit so the prospective P/E is probably only 10. That and a likely 12p dividend should leave some room for appreciation. Whilst I have some concerns about rising impairments in a slowing economy, the loan book is only 20% of a strong-looking balance sheet so impairments are not likely to be big enough to cause trouble for now. It all looks quite promising.

[ntv] 13/3/2018 07:48

looks good and nice increase in the dividend

[martinthebrave] 13/3/2018 07:48

Results look ahead of forecast to me. Rev's £110m (£100.5m), PBT £14.1m (£12.9m), EPS 30.94p (30.2p). Divi 10.5p (10.25p). "Future with confidence". Sparkling!

[aleman] 13/3/2018 07:46

Forecast-beating results bring the P/E down to 11 and the company's cash generation increased strongly before investing in expanding new loans and stocks for resale. This was despite the gold price working marginally against them ( seemingly a minor factor these days). The 18% rise in the final dividend after a 10% increase at the interims bode well for next year. Provided they are keeping their eye on the ball with regard to impairments, these are excellent results.

[cfro] 13/3/2018 07:45

Wow, fabulous results.

EPS of 30.94p well ahead of broker estimates which means that the 2018 forecasts will now be blown out of the water..

[martinthebrave] 09/3/2018 17:37

Any views about what will be said about IFRS 9 on Tuesday. It won't impact 2017 results (which should be excellent) but they did say that they would highlight the impact on 2018 & onwards within these results?

[ntv] 08/3/2018 10:40

topped up recently

[aleman] 07/3/2018 22:54

New rules for credit cards will probably push more business HAT's way.

[aleman] 04/3/2018 14:38

I wonder why they notified us of the results date again. They've changed it from "expects to" to "will" but I don't see why they have bothered when they could have saved the money for the RNS.