H&t Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 07/9/2023 17:28

Quite. Pointless paying for basic financial stats like that.

[cwa1] 07/9/2023 17:01

...or get it from the source(RNSs/Company announcements)?

[spob] 07/9/2023 15:58

.
Never Ever rely on any financial data found on ADVFN

Their data has always been total garbage since day 1


Subscribe to something like Sharelockholmes.com

[lord loads of lolly] 07/9/2023 12:53

Every platform seems to say different things. Take Hargreaves Lansdown or the FT for example.

As well as overstating the P/E (at least on a forward basis), most also seem to show a late 3% to early 4% yield which is highly misleading. I reckon dividends paid this Oct & next June should total at least 20p. Which at today's share price equates to a yield of around 5%.

Only thing for it in my opinion is to do your own research & react accordingly. I recently added to my holding when the price briefly slipped below 396p a couple of weeks ago. Thought that a good opportunity, especially as it locked in the latest 6.5p dividend. Share went ex dividend today.

[saint or sinner?] 07/9/2023 08:15

Is advfn's very basic fundamentals data in thread headers kept accurate and up to date?

Comparing the company information above with that available on AJ Bell we get a huge difference which is clearly highly misleading to potential investors:

Here are AJ Bells financials for H&T at end 2022:

Normalized EPS: 37.15
PE Ratio: 11.03
Turnover: 174
Profit (net): 15

advfn's figures are misleading and useless.

[lord loads of lolly] 31/8/2023 11:16

Latest update below.

Whilst I generally don't pay much attention to IC/ST, I do actually think they've got it right on this occasion.

[lord loads of lolly] 30/8/2023 14:30

Odd how the share price has dropped since the beginning of the year, whilst HAT’s prospects have - if anything - improved even further. Its progressive dividend policy means this now yields around 5%. H2 is traditionally stronger than H1 and the company has consistently issued positive outlook statements this year. Also, strong Director buying since Sept 22 (CEO c. £277k, Chair >£66k at prices between 425p & 444p). And a very undemanding P/E ratio, given the company's short to medium term prospects.

I added recently at a fraction over 395p. The 6.5p ex dividend date is 7 Sept, so I decided to lock that in. I really can’t imagine this dropping below 350p (short of a major general market crash) and can quite see it moving beyond 550p post FY results. Next trading update is in January ‘24, which should generate record results (though this may already be partly priced in, as it’s already widely predicted). Still, I expect a strong upward re-rate within the next 12 months and will be happy to add even further if the share price continues to drift.

[ntv] 18/8/2023 09:24

We know from the company's comments that demand is very high for their services

[thorpematt] 15/8/2023 18:53

Tomps2,
Thanks for posting the links.

FYI if you change one of the t's in the h t t p s to a T the links work on ADVFN

[spob] 15/8/2023 17:33

.


Pawnbroking demand hits ‘record levels’ in UK


Increased usage down to high inflation and shortage of alternatives, says chief of Britain’s biggest operator

Pawnbrokers have benefited from the loss of competition as the high-cost credit market has shrunk dramatically in recent years because of regulatory action

Leke Oso Alabi and Siddharth Venkataramakrishnan in London August 13 2023


Demand for pawnbroking has hit “record levels” in Britain because of high inflation and a shortage of alternatives, according to the boss of the UK’s biggest operator.

H&T Group said pre-tax profit rose 31 per cent to £8.8mn in the first half of the year compared with 2022, while its “pledge book” — loans against customer assets such as jewellery and watches — was worth £114.6mn in June, up from £85.1mn in the same month last year.

Chief executive Chris Gillespie said demand had reached “record levels” partly because of a lack of alternatives.

“Supply of small-sum credit is constrained now in a way it hasn’t been for many years,” he said. “If you only want and need to borrow £200, your options are very limited.”

He added that “to a degree” the rise in demand for pawnbroking was also because of the high cost of living.

The high-cost credit market, which grew out of the financial crisis to serve customers who were not eligible for bank loans, has shrunk dramatically in recent years because of regulatory action.

According to data from the Financial Conduct Authority, the number of high-cost credit providers fell from 106 in the third quarter of 2016 to 39 in the same period last year.

Payday lender Wonga collapsed in 2018, while guarantor loan provider Amigo announced it was winding down in March. Provident Financial shuttered its 141-year-old doorstep lending business in 2021, and was renamed Vanquis Banking Group in January.

Pawnbroker Ramsdens has also benefited from the loss of competition. The UK-listed company said pre-tax profit in the six months to March rose 68 per cent to £3.7mn on a 33 per cent rise in revenue.

Its loan book rose 29 per cent to £9.7mn over the same period, while net assets increased by £5.4mn to £43mn.

“There is a lack of small-sum, short-term credit,” said chief executive Peter Kenyon. “Home collected credit has been decimated, payday lending has been decimated — so the customer has fewer options.”

However, he also said the business saw the effects of rising prices.

“It’s clear that bills are higher, because we see that with our median loan increasing from £150 to £170.”

Pawnbrokers, which are licensed by the Financial Conduct Authority, offer interest rates that are generally lower than payday lenders but higher than bank loans.

Ramsdens’ representative annual percentage rate is 154.08 per cent for a primary six-month loan, while H&T’s maximum APR is 155.8 per cent for a six-month contract. Prior to its collapse, payday lender Wonga generated controversy for offering loans at more than 5,000 per cent APR.

The Money and Pensions Service, the government-sponsored money and pensions adviser, warns that borrowing money from a pawnbroker is relatively expensive and might involve losing a valued possession.

Kenyon said interest rates across the sector had not increased, “despite our own backdrop of increased costs [and] increased wages”.

Gillespie said that despite rising demand, pawnbroking was often seen as a slightly antiquated practice.

“People in the UK aren’t used to using pawnbrokers, because they haven’t needed to for two generations.

“If you go to eastern Europe and the Pacific Rim [pawnbroking is] what people do,” he added. “In the UK it has a slightly old-fashioned image, which is a shame.”

[ntv] 15/8/2023 17:23

Noticed the online used jewelry section has stopped it's summer sale so I would take that as positive imho

[tomps2] 15/8/2023 12:51

H&T #HAT H123 presentation given by management last week with Q&A.

In summary:
· PTP +31% to £8.8m
· EPS +24% to 16.3p
· H1 dividend +30% to 6.5p.
· Profit contribution from Pawnbroking +42% to £32.4m
· Driven by growth in the pledge book +14% to 114.6m. Pledge book growth is expected to remain strong in H2.
· Retail sales +11% to £23m but actions taken to clear slower-moving high-value watches meant a reduction in operating margin from 42% to 28%. This is expected to improve in H2 when they also expect an increase in sales.
· NAV £166.8m
· H2 weighting with Christmas and fx for Summer holidays
· 19% cost increases due to staff, insurance and couriering

On updated forecasts of aEPS of 53.7p, it leaves HAT trading on a PE 7.6, PEG 0.6 and a divi yield of 5.5% in a market where there is reduced competition and increased demand.

Video: hxxps://www.piworld.co.uk/company-videos/ht-group-hat-2023-interim-results-presentation-august-2023-2/

Podcast: hxxps://piworld.podbean.com/e/ht-group-hat-2023-interim-results-presentation-august-2023/

[lord loads of lolly] 14/8/2023 15:52

The H&T bid/offer spread moves all over the place on pretty much a daily basis. So nothing much you can read into it IMHO.

[prettygreen] 14/8/2023 14:18

Some hefty buys today but not much change to the bid/offer.. seller in the background ?

[pugugly] 09/8/2023 15:34

lol: At least we agree on one point IC!!

[lord loads of lolly] 09/8/2023 15:09

pugugly - I'm not usually one to quote the Investors Chronicle, as their share tips have a tendency to be - er - chronic! But their article on the back of yesterday's results states "the shares are ... trading below estimated year-end book value of 416p." I guess it depends what you include in - and subtract from - net assets. Anyhow, either way it appears to me a very undemanding valuation at the current share price.

[rimau1] 09/8/2023 15:02

Yes pugugly i am using net assets.

[pugugly] 09/8/2023 13:53

rimau1 . Not sure how you calculated 416p
I prefer Tangible net assets per share. Subject to my maths (e&oe) and using the figures from the Shore research figures appear like this.

HAT NOS OF SHARES 2022ACCOUNTS 43,900,000
Tangible net asset value 2022 ACCOUNTS £136,782,000
TNAV per share AGAIN PER 2022 ACCOUNTS £3.116


HAT NOS OF SHARES 2023 FORECAST 43,300,000
Tangible net asset value 2023 FORECAST £152,611,000
TNAV per share AGAIN PER 2023 FORECAST £3.525

If miscalculated can anyone please advise where wrong?

[rimau1] 09/8/2023 09:55

Just to back that up LOLolly even taking into account a revision downwards in retail, Shore have FY eps at 53.7p and DPS of 21.5p so a yield of 5.4%. For me the biggest point is that HAT is trading below current assets (TBV) of 416p. For 2024 with the growing pledge book forecasts are 30% eps growth so i don’t personally see much downside here especially with the tailwinds of inflation, cost of living crisis, recession, higher gold prices and the UK gen pops desire for a foreign holiday.

[lord loads of lolly] 09/8/2023 09:35

pugugly - I don't buy the reasons for your conclusion "maybe more downside". Pawnbroking is a bigger & more profitable part of HAT's business than retail. So any further economic downturn would - if anything - have a positive effect. That said, in these current volatile markets, you'd be daft to call the bottom of ANY share price right now. But HAT has good short-medium term earnings visibility and has been prudently run in recent years. Plus its progressive dividend policy yields similar returns to today's top savings accounts. So any downside should be limited and largely reflective of the overall stockmarket.

[pugugly] 09/8/2023 08:55

Squeeze on disposable income (general downturn in UK economy and increase in cost of living and increased taxes) should be great for pawnbroking but bad for retail (gut feel Shore are too optimistic there) So maybe more downside.

[rimau1] 09/8/2023 08:09

Simon Thompson bullish update in the IC, i will try to post tonight.

[thorpematt] 08/8/2023 20:46

I managed to add some more here today. It was a pretty bleak-looking market in the morning session and everything tends to get dragged down.

The Shore note is very useful and this year's lower forecast is just about the only not-positive metric in it. Most other metrics getting uplifts on the prior forecasts of 7% or higher.

With respect to debt, it is important to consider pledge book as loans. In essence in this apsect of the business (not the retail side etc), but in the loan aspect, you have to treat it like a bank. In essence the business model is to lend to customers at one APR and borrow that money at a cheaper rate (just like a bank).

Looking ahead (as we investors must), there is extraordinary value on offer here. 2024 forecast show a PER of <6 and a divi yeild of 28p (with the comapny policy being a 40% payout ratio) which at this price is 7%

[muzmanoz] 08/8/2023 11:38

Shore capital reduced adjusted eps forecasts to 53.7p this year and 69.8p next year. Still seems good to me!

[lord loads of lolly] 08/8/2023 10:28

rimau1 - I agree. The "negatives" highlighted by JM were a) well trailed & b) indicative of an expanding, profitable business. Investment in extra stores & an upgraded IT system will boost sales & profits within the year. HAT has always had a progressive dividend policy that's well covered (> 2x). Against this backdrop, an increased level of debt doesn't concern me in the slightest.