H&t Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 18/1/2023 16:12

thorpematt - I agree H&T is continuing to trade well, steadily expanding both organically & via acquisition. I think it's a well run business & Shore Cap's forecast may prove right. Who knows? But it's worth remembering that 3 years ago (year ending 31/12/19), Operating Profit was £22.49M, EPS 43.88p with an Interim only Dividend of 4.7p. The share price then was around 360p-380p. H&T has always traded on a lowish P/E, despite its decent yield & track record. That said, I suspect we'll see the £5.00 share price level breached again within the next year. I just hope it nudges below £4.50 at some stage before then, so I can buy back the small part of the holding I sold at £5.03. If not, I'm confident the shares I retain will deliver anyway. But I'd be happy to increase my exposure here, as it seems one of the safer options currently (as much as any share ever is!) UPDATE: My limit buy order was triggered this morning (20 Jan) at £4.485. I'm happy with that, as It reinstates the value of the fractional holding I sold for £5.03 a share on 1 Dec 22. And it'll boost my final dividend payment in June. Given H&T's store expansion & the economic backdrop, I reckon it still has at least 1 years' decent growth left. But I'll be monitoring carefully, with a view to reducing again, if the share price nudges above the £5.50 level later this year.

[thorpematt] 18/1/2023 12:27

In line is really good here. The reason being that 2023 will end with about 19 more stores than 2002 start and that the forecasts are so much higher for 2023 than 2022

Brokers forecast will remain unchanged.

Shore cap. are saying in their note this morning

2023 estimates
PBT 32.6
EPS 57.9
Divi 23.0p

ROE is rising now to circa 15% so I like this one in the mid-term. Lots of good tailwinds and very cheap still on fPER, 8ish plus a very nice forward divi to boot 4.7%

[lord loads of lolly] 18/1/2023 11:49

ymaheru - not sure about that. Latest inflation rate was only marginally down & the market is expecting it to halve this year. So I'd have thought any inflationary impact was already priced in to shares like H&T.

[ymaheru] 18/1/2023 11:36

There’s also downward pressure due to better inflation news. If that shortens the cost of living crisis, then HAT earn less.

[lord loads of lolly] 18/1/2023 11:18

Today's TU was in line with market expectations, with no surprises likely when full year results are released in March. Yesterday's share price rise was possibly caused by some expecting the update to exceed market expectations. So today's reaction is really just a correction of yesterday's over-exuberance. I guess the announcement of a new Chair in April could also have contributed to today's downward pressure. But we're really just reverting to the trading range we've been at for the past few months. So I've no real concerns (assuming the new Chair is up to it).

[ymaheru] 22/12/2022 17:11

I sort of see what you’re saying, but it’ll happen everywhere, especially low volume stocks.

Overall, the trend has been positive since buying at 221p (Oct, 2020), so on a daily basis, you’re right, but monthly the price has some meaning.

[lord loads of lolly] 22/12/2022 16:46

ymaheru - I think you've missed my point. The spread is being manipulated at the margins to allow daily midprice rises/falls to be reported. It's not always that wide a spread. One day there might be a 5p gap between bid & ask, the next it could be 15p. And that's what influences the reported midprice. You only have to look at today's alleged 2.1% share price "rise" to realise it's a total fabrication. Good luck buying in at 220p any time this decade, with the midprice currently around 470p!

[ymaheru] 21/12/2022 19:00

I’m quite sure it’s not fully bogus. If you bought in at 220p, I’m sure you’ll see a profit selling tomorrow.

I know there tends to be a large spread, though.

[lord loads of lolly] 21/12/2022 17:49

As I've already mentioned on the LSE board, the daily reported H&T share price rise/fall is totally bogus. It's almost always done by marketmakers simply widening or narrowing the spread between one day & the next. In other words, one day the share price might end on 480p Bid, 485p Ask. The next, it ends 470p Bid, 485p Ask. It's actually no cheaper to buy shares on Day 2 than Day 1. But the share price shows a fall of 10p (or just over 2%), as the Bid value has dropped. Then, as if by magic, next day or soon after, the spread narrows again, suggesting another share price rise. And rinse & repeat.

[spob] 19/12/2022 19:14

Half the country is on strike

The NHS is broken and nurses are using food banks

When energy bills start dropping through letter boxes after the winter, many will be shocked.


Over the long run, the share price will take care of itself

[malcolm caton] 19/12/2022 18:12

Write up in Daily Mail hasn't done much for share price !

[lord loads of lolly] 14/12/2022 15:42

I think it's more a case of the share price getting a bit ahead of events when it breached £5 recently (an all-time high). Which is why I sold a small portion of my holding at just under 503p. I retain the bulk of my holding though, as I fully expect the price to exceed £5 again at some point in the next 12 months. And if it falls back below £4.50 in the meantime, I'll repurchase the amount I sold. I think you're right that interest rates will rise again tomorrow. But they'll probably now peak lower than the consensus view of just a few weeks ago. The gold price (though still strong) is also below its recent November peak. In short, investors already know the economic downturn will benefit HAT, which is well-positioned. Short term fluctuations in its share price are little more than noise.

[saint or sinner?] 14/12/2022 13:32

Shaking out the weak holders who recently bought in.

[outsizeclothes.com] 14/12/2022 10:22

I find it peculiar that this is drifting:- on the cusp of yet another rate rise, and with gold started to climb again.

[spob] 08/12/2022 22:43

lots of dividends before then

Lol

[lord loads of lolly] 08/12/2022 22:36

Even good companies go through bad periods though. And most shareholders eventually need to realise actual profits, rather than holding onto shares ‘til they drop dead!

[spob] 07/12/2022 22:32

For a good company

the best holding period is forever

sadly all of my good companies get taken over far too soon


this is why Warren Buffett prefers to buy companies outright

[thorpematt] 06/12/2022 22:08

lolly,
Well done on your profits, Ben Graham used to sell half his stock once it had doubled in price, the remainder of course being a free carry on the upside. Although I believe a later analysis did reveal he may have done better to hold longer, in the end of course he probably allocated that profit elsewhere to good use AND of course weighting and portfolio management is important. As is sleeping well at night.

I have had these a while now also...I would have to check on my buy price, but also the total return has been very good especially in theis market.

I looked at selling some recently but held off when I looked at forward forecasts.

Adj PBT (£m)
2023F 32.6
2024F 39.2

Adj EPS (p)
58
69.5

Because the payout ratio policy is set at 40% we also have transparency on likely divis
23p
28p

All of which I think is very good value.

[lord loads of lolly] 04/12/2022 23:03

spob - it fell back a bit the day after, but who knows what’ll happen longer term. I sold a small part of my holding at just under 503p, as I’d bought in below 250p and you just never know when HAT’s currently positive mood music might change. I still think its short term prospects & yield are attractive though, so will buy back in if the price drops to around 450p.

[spob] 03/12/2022 18:20

new all time high 505p

[lord loads of lolly] 14/11/2022 12:11

Ramsdens sector breakdown as of Oct 22 trading update: Foreign Currency gross profit £12.6m. Jewellery retail segment revenue £26.2m. Pawnbroking loan book £8.6m. Precious metal buying volume £16.0m.

[podgyted] 13/11/2022 22:29

What is driving HAT is its actually, in essence, a pawn broker - recent placing to finance the massive expansion going on in this area of its business.

RFX is minuscule in comparison in this area and has always been a play on F/X for holidays rather than its pawnbroking book.

But each to their own.

[lord loads of lolly] 05/11/2022 18:06

bookbroker - not sure I agree with you there. H&T has a better yield, way more scale & a better share performance over the past 5 years than RFX. Both have exposure to the North & gold prices. That said, both also likely to benefit from the inevitable economic downturn.

[bookbroker] 05/11/2022 12:23

Ramsdens way better value with current ratios, different beasts but RFX likely to benefit from the deprived northern pockets, and their investments in gold should start to bear fruit soon.